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Auction rates have hit a near six-year low. Picture: Sam Ruttyn<\/p>\n
SQM Research Managing Director Louis Christopher said he started noticing weakness in numbers the weekend prior to the budget, with Sydney\u2019s clearance rate at 37 per cent. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis week just gone by is the first weekend and full week passed since the budget, and 100 per cent, the market\u2019s been impacted by the property taxation changes,\u201d Mr Christopher said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd I agree that it would predominantly be investors who have stepped back on the sidelines,\u201d<\/p>\n
He added this would include other homebuyers as well.<\/p>\n
\u201cWho wants to buy when the market is falling sharply?\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
MORE: $30m of Bondi \u2018legacy\u2019 for sale<\/a><\/p>\n Treasurer Jim Chalmers\u2019 controversial budget has hit the housing market hard. Picture: Gaye Gerard \/ NewsWire<\/p>\n Mr Christopher also forecasts sales volumes will suffer a 30 per cent decline this quarter when compared to the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n \u201cI think what we\u2019re going to see is a very, very tough period, especially for real estate agents,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cOne thing that hasn\u2019t been discussed in all this is how this actually flows through to state government revenues because the bulk of state government revenues are based on property stamp duty transfers.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you see a 30 per cent decline in [sales] volume, which I think we will, that\u2019s going to amount to a huge percentage decline in state government revenues around the country.\u201d<\/p>\n MORE: Is this Mark Wahlberg\u2019s new $100m Sydney home?<\/a><\/p>\n SQM research boss Louis Christopher says auction clearance rates could fall below 30 per cent.<\/p>\n MORE: Jackie O\u2019s cunning $30m exit plan amid Kyle split<\/a><\/p>\n Mr Christopher said he was already noticing vendors adjusting asking prices.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve been recording a steady decline in asking prices since the beginning of February 2026 in Sydney,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cOver the past 30 days, asking prices have fallen by 0.7 per cent.<\/p>\n \u201cThey fell again last week by about $1,700 and we are expecting this trend to continue.\u201d<\/p>\n SQM Research forecast in March after the war in Iran began that Sydney house prices would fall up to 6 per cent this calendar year, and in Melbourne by up to 4 per cent. <\/p>\n That fall could now be greater.<\/p>\n According to Mr Christopher, the March forecast did not take into account property taxation changes, only the interest rate outlook at the time. <\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s now very likely that we\u2019re going to see housing price falls in excess of six per cent in Sydney for this current calendar year,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cThese current auction clearance rates essentially would equate, if they were to continue, to somewhere between nine to 12 per cent of housing price falls in Sydney.\u201d<\/p>\n MORE: \u2018Investors gone\u2019: Aussie auction collapses stun<\/a><\/p>\n Housing prices could fall by up to 12 per cent. Picture Daily Telegraph \/ Monique Harmer<\/p>\n MORE: Shock as homes drop 33 per cent in months<\/a><\/p>\n He added there has also been a rise in sold priors. <\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t normally see that until we hit a downturn period,\u201d Mr Christopher said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt happens precisely because vendors have been informed that they only have one registered bidder at auction, they\u2019re best off to negotiate before they hit the auction.\u201d<\/p>\n MORE: Australia\u2019s $85bn savings crisis exposed<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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