{"id":685382,"date":"2026-05-21T15:10:13","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T15:10:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/685382\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T15:10:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T15:10:13","slug":"should-you-be-worried-pt-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/685382\/","title":{"rendered":"Should You Be Worried? PT. 1"},"content":{"rendered":"

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One of my favorite things to do during the draft cycle is look backward. It\u2019s fun to let the fan in me take over a little bit\u2014to guide my fingers across the keyboard in a way that isn\u2019t always as \u201cbuttoned up,\u201d so to speak. Draft history tells us a lot about organizations, how they view team building, and the kinds of bets they\u2019re willing to make when the pressure is highest.<\/p>\n

Because make no mistake: the draft shapes the direction of the NBA far more than traditional coverage often gives it credit for.<\/p>\n

What we\u2019ll be doing today is looking at the \u201csuccess rate\u201d of NBA organizations drafting at the exact spots they are currently slated to pick (trades pending) in the 2026 NBA Draft. For this exercise, we\u2019ll once again go all the way back to the 1978 NBA Draft\u2014commonly known as the Larry Bird draft.<\/p>\n

Partially because the 1978 Draft helped lay the foundation for one of the most important eras in league history. Larry Bird in 1978. Magic Johnson in 1979. A rivalry that changed the trajectory of the NBA and helped elevate the league into something nationally captivating.<\/p>\n

And partially because\u2026 well, I think it\u2019s fun.<\/p>\n

The 2026 NBA Draft class is fascinating because of how differently organizations may approach it. There\u2019s star power at the top, legitimate depth throughout the first round, and an oversaturation of guards that will force front offices to separate preference from projection. Some teams will prioritize upside swings. Others may lean toward proven production and roster fit. Developmental timelines, organizational patience, and roster infrastructure all matter here.<\/p>\n

Not every franchise handles those variables equally well.<\/p>\n

Which leads us to the most important question a fan can ask this time of year:<\/p>\n

SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?!?!? [cue dramatic music]<\/p>\n

Since the Larry Bird Era, the Wizards have only picked first overall twice. The outcomes could not have gone much differently.<\/p>\n

The first came in 2001, when Washington selected high school big man Kwame Brown directly out of Brunswick, Georgia. At the time, the selection was historic. Brown became the first high school player ever selected first overall in NBA Draft history.<\/p>\n

Things did not go according to plan.<\/p>\n

Brown struggled early, never fully meeting the expectations attached to being the top pick. While he ultimately carved out a lengthy NBA career, Kwame is still widely regarded as one of the biggest misses in league history, given his draft position.<\/p>\n

Nine years later, Washington found itself atop the draft again.<\/p>\n

This time, the Wizards selected John Wall out of Kentucky\u2014and unlike Brown, Wall immediately validated the selection. One of the quickest and most electric athletes the NBA has seen, Wall rapidly developed into an All-Star and All-NBA guard before injuries ultimately derailed what looked like a Hall of Fame trajectory.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the thing about drafting this high: the stakes are enormous, but so is the volatility.<\/p>\n

Still, the current Wizards regime feels significantly more coherent than the one that selected Brown over two decades ago.<\/p>\n

Since taking over as General Manager, Will Dawkins has consistently prioritized size, length, athleticism, and developmental upside. Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, and Will Riley all fit within a broader organizational vision centered around versatility and long-term scalability.<\/p>\n

That makes AJ Dybantsa an almost comically clean fit.<\/p>\n

There is a strong belief around the basketball world that Dybantsa will ultimately become the top pick in this class. His blend of physical tools, scoring upside, and positional versatility aligns directly with the type of player Washington has repeatedly targeted throughout this rebuild.<\/p>\n

Given the direction of the organization and the archetype potentially available at the top, it\u2019s difficult to feel pessimistic about Washington holding the #1 pick this time around.<\/p>\n

It shouldn\u2019t come as much of a surprise that Utah hasn\u2019t spent much time drafting second overall, considering how successful the franchise has historically been.<\/p>\n

The only previous player the Jazz selected at #2 during the Larry Bird Era was Louisville guard Darrell Griffith in 1980.<\/p>\n

Nicknamed \u201cDr. Dunkenstein,\u201d Griffith immediately rewarded Utah\u2019s investment by winning Rookie of the Year and quickly becoming one of the more explosive guards in basketball. Unfortunately, injuries eventually altered the trajectory of what looked like a star-level career.<\/p>\n

That serves as another reminder that even successful selections can become fragile quickly.<\/p>\n

Still, Utah has every reason to feel optimistic about holding the second pick in a class many believe is especially strong at the top.<\/p>\n

There are obvious organizational connections to AJ Dybantsa, given his ties to Utah Prep and BYU. But even if the Jazz miss out on Dybantsa, they would still be positioned to land another franchise-level talent.<\/p>\n

Darryn Peterson has consistently proven himself against elite competition and would immediately give Utah a high-level offensive centerpiece. Cameron Boozer also has organizational ties through his father, Carlos Boozer, who currently works with the franchise.<\/p>\n

More importantly, Utah feels structurally prepared for a top-tier prospect.<\/p>\n

Danny Ainge and the Jazz front office have accumulated draft capital, embraced developmental reps, and quietly assembled an intriguing young core despite the losses piling up recently.<\/p>\n

Whether it\u2019s Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, or another elite talent, Utah appears equipped to support a franchise cornerstone long term.<\/p>\n

Not long ago, Memphis looked positioned to become what Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and San Antonio are now: a young contender with staying power.<\/p>\n

Instead, injuries, suspensions, roster instability, and organizational changes dramatically altered the franchise\u2019s trajectory. Following multiple unfavorable headlines surrounding Ja Morant and the eventual trade sending Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah, Memphis suddenly finds itself entering another pivotal era.<\/p>\n

Now the Grizzlies hold the #3 pick in what many believe could become one of the strongest draft classes in recent memory.<\/p>\n

The only other time Memphis selected third overall during the Larry Bird Era came in the loaded 1996 NBA Draft, when the then-Vancouver Grizzlies selected Shareef Abdur-Rahim.<\/p>\n

To Shareef\u2019s credit, he was productive almost immediately. He averaged nearly 21 points per game across five seasons with Vancouver and became one of the better young forwards in basketball.<\/p>\n

Still, it\u2019s impossible not to look back at that draft and wonder what could have happened had Vancouver selected one of the eventual Hall of Famers still available behind him.<\/p>\n

Hindsight is 20\/20.<\/p>\n

Memphis now faces another fascinating inflection point.<\/p>\n

It would be shocking if AJ Dybantsa fell this far, but there is at least a plausible pathway where Darryn Peterson remains available\u2014which would create an especially interesting conversation if Memphis eventually pivots toward a future beyond Morant.<\/p>\n

More realistically, consensus currently points toward players like Cameron Boozer or Caleb Wilson in this range. Both fit the archetypes Memphis has consistently valued. Boozer brings offensive feel, rebounding, and spacing. Wilson fits the athletic, long, defensively versatile mold the Grizzlies have gravitated toward throughout this era.<\/p>\n

More importantly, Memphis has largely earned the benefit of the doubt.<\/p>\n

Even outside the lottery, the Grizzlies have consistently identified impactful talent and developed players into meaningful contributors.<\/p>\n

With the level of talent available near the top of this class, there\u2019s little reason to doubt Memphis landing a high-level player here.<\/p>\n

This might be the first section in today\u2019s piece that could have Bulls fans clutching their hearts a little bit.<\/p>\n

Chicago has drafted fourth overall four separate times during the Larry Bird Era.<\/p>\n

Things\u2026have not exactly gone according to plan.<\/p>\n

The Bulls selected Kelvin Ransey in 1980 before immediately trading him for Ronnie Lester and a future first-round pick. Twenty years later, Chicago drafted Marcus Fizer, whose promising scoring profile never fully translated before injuries altered his trajectory.<\/p>\n

Then came Eddy Curry.<\/p>\n

Curry represented the classic upside swing: elite size, enormous physical tools, and theoretical star potential. The problem was that the polish, conditioning, and consistency never fully materialized.<\/p>\n

Nearly two decades later, Chicago once again drafted fourth overall and selected Patrick Williams\u2014another tools-heavy projection bet whose development never quite matched the optimism attached to his draft stock.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the important throughline here.<\/p>\n

Historically, many of Chicago\u2019s misses at #4 came from projecting what a player could become instead of simply taking the best overall talent available.<\/p>\n

This time around, the Bulls may benefit from elite talent naturally falling into their lap.<\/p>\n

Depending on how the board breaks, Chicago could realistically find itself choosing between Caleb Wilson, Cameron Boozer, or potentially even Darryn Peterson, depending on how teams handle medicals and fit conversations.<\/p>\n

More importantly, there is new leadership shaping the direction of this roster.<\/p>\n

With Bryson Graham helping guide basketball operations under a philosophy centered around Size, Length, Athleticism, and Physicality (S.L.A.P.), several of the top prospects in this class naturally align with the traits Chicago now appears to prioritize organizationally.<\/p>\n

In other words, the low-hanging fruit may actually be the correct answer this time.<\/p>\n

The Clippers are one of two teams in this lottery selecting in a slot they have never previously drafted from during the Larry Bird Era.<\/p>\n

That makes this one of the more fascinating teams in the entire draft.<\/p>\n

On one hand, Los Angeles hasn\u2019t exactly inspired confidence with several of its recent draft selections. Kobe Brown, Jerome Robinson, Brice Johnson, and CJ Wilcox have all struggled to generate meaningful long-term impact.<\/p>\n

And while the Clippers technically landed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on draft night years ago, they also deserve criticism for viewing him as movable in the first place.<\/p>\n

To be fair, though, many of those misses came while selecting much later in the first round.<\/p>\n

Historically, when the Clippers have drafted near the top, they\u2019ve landed players like Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, and Shaun Livingston.<\/p>\n

The bigger question here isn\u2019t history\u2014it\u2019s direction.<\/p>\n

Assuming the consensus top tier of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson are all off the board, the draft becomes significantly more complicated.<\/p>\n

Most evaluators currently view the next tier as heavily guard-dominated.<\/p>\n

That raises fascinating questions, given that the Clippers recently acquired Darius Garland in a deal involving James Harden.<\/p>\n

Does Garland remove someone like Darius Acuff Jr. from consideration? Or does his presence actually give the Clippers flexibility to pair him with another creator like Keaton Wagler or Mikel Brown Jr.?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the possibility that Los Angeles becomes one of the more active trade-down teams in the lottery if they believe the value flattens in this range.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what makes this pick so intriguing.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t just about talent evaluation. It\u2019s about organizational identity.<\/p>\n

The only previous time the Nets selected sixth overall during the Larry Bird Era came in 1980, when the then-New Jersey Nets drafted North Carolina forward Mike O\u2019Koren.<\/p>\n

O\u2019Koren immediately became a productive player and even received Rookie of the Year votes, but he never fully developed into a franchise cornerstone.<\/p>\n

Honestly, that\u2019s probably less important than Brooklyn\u2019s recent drafting trends anyway.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where things become concerning.<\/p>\n

Even looking back at last year\u2019s draft, there are already reasons to question several of Brooklyn\u2019s decisions. Egor Demin was selected ahead of players like Collin Murray-Boyles, while Brooklyn also passed on several intriguing prospects later in the first round.<\/p>\n

More importantly, the Nets still feel like an organization searching for offensive direction.<\/p>\n

Brooklyn is not currently in a position to pass on elite talent simply because it already has multiple ball-dominant players. This roster still lacks a true offensive engine capable of organizing the floor and consistently elevating the players around him.<\/p>\n

That makes this one of the more fascinating landing spots for the glut of guards projected in this range.<\/p>\n

Darius Acuff Jr., Mikel Brown Jr., Keaton Wagler, and Kingston Flemings could all realistically enter the conversation here.<\/p>\n

The issue?<\/p>\n

Every one of those guards comes with real questions attached.<\/p>\n

Acuff struggled defensively. Brown dealt with a back injury and inconsistent shooting stretches. Wagler still needs physical development. Flemings has real projection questions surrounding both his length and shooting translation.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what makes Brooklyn such a dangerous landing spot.<\/p>\n

Whichever guard they select will almost immediately inherit enormous developmental responsibility. If another guard drafted into a cleaner ecosystem develops more quickly, the criticism will arrive fast.<\/p>\n

And unlike some organizations picking in this range, Brooklyn hasn\u2019t consistently earned the benefit of the doubt recently.<\/p>\n

This could very easily become another situation where the Nets are criticized for selecting the \u201cwrong guy.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Kings are veterans when it comes to drafting seventh overall. Sacramento has selected at this spot seven different times during the Larry Bird Era, which honestly feels fitting for one of the more chaotic organizations in modern NBA history.<\/p>\n

Some of those picks worked out fairly well.<\/p>\n

Steve Johnson immediately became a productive big man. Lionel Simmons looked like a foundational piece before injuries derailed his career. Jason Williams became one of the most beloved and stylistically influential guards of his generation.<\/p>\n

Others became cautionary tales.<\/p>\n

Bobby Hurley was selected ahead of players like Sam Cassell and Allan Houston. Ben McLemore never developed beyond being a rotational wing despite enormous expectations. Sacramento also famously pivoted from Bismack Biyombo into Jimmer Fredette\u2014a bet on star aesthetics and offensive excitement that never fully translated.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the important throughline.<\/p>\n

The Kings have historically been an organization willing to talk themselves into upside, flash, fit, or \u201cthe next version\u201d of something, rather than simply stabilizing around the best long-term talent available.<\/p>\n

Which brings us to 2026.<\/p>\n

Sacramento desperately needs another foundational piece capable of carrying the franchise into its next era. With heavy reliance on aging veterans like DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Russell Westbrook, the Kings once again find themselves searching for offensive direction.<\/p>\n

Conveniently\u2014or inconveniently\u2014they\u2019re drafting directly in the middle of a guard-heavy tier.<\/p>\n

Darius Acuff Jr., Mikel Brown Jr., and Keaton Wagler could all realistically enter the conversation here.<\/p>\n

The problem is that Sacramento may not control which one reaches them.<\/p>\n

The Clippers and Nets both pick ahead of the Kings, and both organizations have legitimate reasons to prioritize developing their own lead guards.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where things become dangerous.<\/p>\n

Could Sacramento stay patient and simply take the best remaining talent? Or could the Kings once again convince themselves they\u2019ve identified \u201ctheir guy\u201d regardless of broader league consensus?<\/p>\n

Maybe that means betting on the upside of Nate Ament. Maybe it means pivoting toward a big like Aday Mara.<\/p>\n

History suggests every possibility is on the table with this franchise.<\/p>\n

The Kings are close enough to relevance. This pick matters significantly, but the organization is unstable enough that it\u2019s difficult to feel entirely confident in whichever direction they choose.<\/p>\n

The Atlanta Hawks did not quite jump into the very top tier of the 2026 NBA Draft, but this is still a meaningful spot for a franchise entering a new phase.<\/p>\n

The only previous time Atlanta selected eighth overall during the Larry Bird Era came in 2019, when they drafted Jaxson Hayes out of Texas.<\/p>\n

Well\u2026technically.<\/p>\n

Hayes never actually played for the Hawks, as Atlanta immediately moved him in the deal that ultimately brought De\u2019Andre Hunter to the franchise.<\/p>\n

For a while, that looked like a solid piece of business.<\/p>\n

Hunter became a productive two-way wing for Atlanta and played a meaningful role on the Hawks team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals. Still, injuries and inconsistency prevented him from fully ascending into the sort of long-term cornerstone many hoped he could become, and Atlanta eventually moved him during the 2024-2025 season.<\/p>\n

That brings us to today.<\/p>\n

The Hawks are entering one of the more fascinating transitional periods in the league. After trading presumed franchise centerpiece Trae Young, Atlanta still managed to remain competitive behind the emergence of Jalen Johnson, who increasingly looks capable of becoming the organizational focal point moving forward.<\/p>\n

That shift matters when evaluating this draft slot.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s certainly a pathway where Atlanta targets another guard, especially considering the age timeline of CJ McCollum and the overall guard-heavy nature of this class. But the Hawks also have very obvious frontcourt needs.<\/p>\n

More specifically: size, rebounding, and interior presence.<\/p>\n

Onyeka Okongwu has made real strides offensively, particularly as a shooter, but Atlanta still lacks consistent rim protection and high-end defensive rebounding from the center position.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s what makes Aday Mara such an interesting fit here.<\/p>\n

Mara would immediately give Atlanta more size and interior deterrence, while also bringing some of the passing and offensive feel that could pair beautifully alongside Johnson in the frontcourt. From a pure talent perspective, that pairing could become one of the more intriguing young frontcourts in basketball.<\/p>\n

The hesitation comes from Atlanta\u2019s recent drafting track record.<\/p>\n

Zaccharie Risacher has not yet separated himself within his draft class the way many hoped. AJ Griffin has effectively disappeared from the NBA landscape, and Kobe Bufkin never fully established himself with the Hawks before being moved.<\/p>\n

Now, Atlanta enters this draft under General Manager Onsi Saleh. While Saleh was not the lead decision-maker behind several of those previous selections, he was still part of the organization during those processes.<\/p>\n

Time will tell whether Atlanta has truly evolved philosophically\u2014or whether some of the same drafting habits remain underneath the surface.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s pretty interesting how often the Dallas Mavericks have landed at ninth overall, considering the franchise itself was established in 1980\u2014right at the beginning of the Larry Bird Era.<\/p>\n

The very first time Dallas drafted at this spot, they absolutely nailed it.<\/p>\n

In 1981, the Mavericks selected Rolando Blackman out of Kansas State. Blackman spent a decade with the franchise, earned four All-Star appearances, and became one of the foundational players of early Mavericks basketball.<\/p>\n

Fifteen years later, Dallas found itself back at #9 in the loaded 1996 NBA Draft.<\/p>\n

This time, the Mavericks selected Samaki Walker out of Louisville. Walker ultimately carved out a lengthy NBA career and even won a championship with the Lakers, but he never developed into anything more than a rotational big man during his three seasons in Dallas.<\/p>\n

Then came 2017.<\/p>\n

Looking to find a young building block near the end of the Dirk Nowitzki era, Dallas drafted Dennis Smith Jr. out of NC State. Smith flashed athleticism and scoring upside early, but inconsistency and inefficiency ultimately led Dallas to move off him quickly in the deal that brought Kristaps Porzi\u0146\u0123is to the Mavericks.<\/p>\n

Dallas enters 2026 in a dramatically different position than it was in any of those previous eras.<\/p>\n

Quite frankly, Cooper Flagg has almost made the Luka Don\u010di\u0107 trade feel like distant history already. The organization now looks entirely different under Masai Ujiri and Mike Schmitz, while Jason Kidd is no longer on the sidelines.<\/p>\n

The Mavericks suddenly feel reset. That\u2019s what makes this pick so fascinating.<\/p>\n

Dallas doesn\u2019t necessarily need a franchise savior here. They need connective talent around Flagg and Kyrie Irving.<\/p>\n

There are obvious needs on this roster. Perimeter defense. Secondary creation. Frontcourt availability. Long-term planning beyond Kyrie.<\/p>\n

That opens the door to several different directions.<\/p>\n

Brayden Burries would make a ton of sense as an athletic scoring guard capable of defending on the perimeter and easing some offensive pressure. Guards like Kingston Flemings or Labaron Philon could give Dallas a long-term heir apparent behind Kyrie.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s the bigger swing options.<\/p>\n

Yaxel Lendeborg may be older than several prospects in this range, but his all-around game and positional versatility could make him an incredibly clean fit next to Flagg. Nate Ament also feels impossible to rule out, considering Dallas now has one of the more projection-friendly front offices in basketball.<\/p>\n

More importantly, this organization finally feels aligned again.<\/p>\n

Pairing Masai Ujiri with one of the league\u2019s best evaluators in Mike Schmitz could be exactly what Dallas needed entering this next era.<\/p>\n

That alone makes it easier to trust whichever direction they choose here.<\/p>\n

The Bucks land in one of the more pivotal spots of the 2026 NBA Draft with the tenth overall pick. Fortunately for Milwaukee, this isn\u2019t unfamiliar territory. Unfortunately, their history here is a little all over the place.<\/p>\n

The first time Milwaukee selected tenth overall came in 1997, when they drafted Cincinnati big man Danny Fortson. Fortson never actually suited up for the Bucks, though, as he was immediately moved in a trade that brought veteran center Ervin Johnson to Milwaukee. Johnson ultimately became a useful rotational big for several playoff Bucks teams, but the selection mostly serves as an early example of Milwaukee prioritizing immediate roster construction over long-term upside.<\/p>\n

Twelve years later, the Bucks drafted Brandon Jennings after his unconventional pre-draft route through Italy rather than college basketball. Jennings immediately brought scoring pop and offensive flair to Milwaukee, even if the efficiency never fully matched the volume. More importantly, the Bucks eventually flipped Jennings in a sign-and-trade that netted them Khris Middleton\u2014a move that helped shape the eventual championship core around Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ironically, one of Milwaukee\u2019s better outcomes at this slot came less from the actual player drafted and more from the organizational pivot afterward.<\/p>\n

Two years later came the Jimmer Fredette selection\u2014or, more accurately, the Jimmer transaction carousel. As discussed earlier in Sacramento\u2019s section, Fredette quickly became part of a multi-team sequence involving Tobias Harris, Shaun Livingston, JJ Redick, Beno Udrih, and several other moving parts. Essentially, the selection became less about Jimmer himself and more about Milwaukee continuously reshaping the roster around the margins.<\/p>\n

Then came Thon Maker in 2016. Fresh off the early success of Giannis, Milwaukee once again swung on a long-term developmental frontcourt project with enormous physical tools and theoretical upside. The problem was that the production never consistently materialized, which now feels relevant as the Bucks once again enter an uncertain organizational phase exactly ten drafts later.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s well known around the league that Giannis\u2019 long-term future in Milwaukee has become a major talking point. Even if he remains with the organization, the Bucks are clearly approaching a transition point organizationally, which changes the type of prospect they may prioritize here.<\/p>\n

Instead of simply targeting complementary role players, Milwaukee may feel pressure to identify someone capable of eventually becoming one of the primary engines of the next era. Yaxel Lendeborg makes a lot of sense through that lens despite being older than many prospects in this range. Labaron Philon could appeal as a dynamic lead guard option capable of eventually steering an offense.<\/p>\n

Milwaukee has also never been shy about deviating from consensus if it believes strongly in a player, which makes someone like Ebuka Okorie fascinating here. Okorie may not universally project this high right now, but the appeal is obvious. He\u2019s a freshman with elite measurables, impressive shot creation indicators, real passing flashes, and one of the strongest unassisted scoring profiles in the class. That archetype becomes significantly more attractive if Milwaukee believes it may eventually need another player capable of carrying offensive responsibility long term.<\/p>\n

Whoever the Bucks select here may inherit the somewhat unfair responsibility of helping usher in the next phase of franchise history. That\u2019s a lot of pressure for the tenth pick.<\/p>\n

Joining Milwaukee, the Golden State Warriors are another team selecting in a slot they\u2019ve occupied several times during the Larry Bird Era. The results here have been a little all over the place.<\/p>\n

Back in 1990, Golden State selected Tyrone Hill out of Xavier. Hill steadily improved during his time with the Warriors before eventually becoming an All-Star later in his career with Cleveland. Unfortunately for Golden State, the return on trading Hill ultimately became Clifford Rozier\u2014a move that aged poorly in hindsight.<\/p>\n

A few years later came one of the more infamous misses in franchise history. In the loaded 1996 NBA Draft, the Warriors selected Todd Fuller out of NC State. Fuller never developed into a meaningful NBA player despite entering the league with strong collegiate production.<\/p>\n

Thankfully for Golden State, things eventually improved. The Warriors found productive rotation players in Micka\u00ebl Pi\u00e9trus and Andris Biedri\u0146\u0161 during the early 2000s, with both playing important roles on the iconic \u201cWe Believe\u201d Warriors teams. Then came the home run selection in 2011 when Golden State drafted Klay Thompson with the 11th pick. The rest is basketball history. Thompson became one of the greatest shooters ever, helped form the most dangerous shooting backcourt the league has seen alongside Stephen Curry, and played a massive role in four championships.<\/p>\n

The challenge now is that Golden State enters a completely different phase organizationally. The Warriors are no longer the unstoppable dynasty hovering over the league. They\u2019ve become more of a perennial Play-In-level team, and the core of Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler is obviously not getting any younger. Unlike several teams higher in the lottery, Golden State likely isn\u2019t searching for a franchise-altering superstar here. They\u2019re searching for someone capable of helping extend the competitiveness of this era while also providing some long-term functionality once the current core ages out.<\/p>\n

That opens the door to several different archetypes. Yaxel Lendeborg makes a lot of sense despite being older for a rookie. His versatility, size, rebounding, and improving offensive feel would fit beautifully within Golden State\u2019s ecosystem. Brayden Burries could also be especially intriguing because of his ability to play off the ball while still providing athleticism and defensive upside.<\/p>\n

There are also players like Morez Johnson Jr., whose toughness and defensive versatility feel very Warriors-coded, or Nate Ament, whose theoretical 3-and-D projection would naturally appeal to Golden State\u2019s spacing ecosystem. Even Hannes Steinbach could make sense simply because of his rebounding, feel, and interior size.<\/p>\n

The important thing here is that Golden State doesn\u2019t necessarily need to find \u201cthe guy\u201d at pick eleven. They need to find someone who can play winning basketball alongside stars, and historically, that\u2019s actually something this organization has done fairly well.<\/p>\n

The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the pack in this exercise when it comes to drafting at the same slot repeatedly. Between the Seattle SuperSonics and Oklahoma City eras, the franchise has selected 12th overall seven different times during the Larry Bird Era.<\/p>\n

Some of those picks became foundational pieces. Others\u2026not so much.<\/p>\n

During the Seattle years, the franchise selected players like Vladimir Radmanovi\u0107, Nick Collison, and Robert Swift within a short stretch. Radmanovi\u0107 became a productive rotational scorer before eventually being moved for Chris Wilcox, while Swift\u2019s career never fully materialized due to injuries and inconsistency.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s Collison.<\/p>\n

Nick became one of the most beloved players in franchise history despite never putting up massive numbers. He ultimately spent all 14 years of his NBA career with the organization, bridging both the Seattle and Oklahoma City eras before eventually joining the front office in a player development role. In many ways, Collison represented the kind of connective, winning player this franchise has consistently valued.<\/p>\n

That identity became even more obvious once the team arrived in Oklahoma City.<\/p>\n

In 2013, the Thunder selected Steven Adams, who quickly became a fan favorite because of his toughness, physicality, and willingness to do the dirty work. Nearly a decade later, OKC struck gold again when they selected Jalen Williams in the 2022 NBA Draft. J-Dub rapidly developed into one of the best young wings in basketball and became a foundational piece of the Thunder\u2019s championship core.<\/p>\n

The following year, Oklahoma City technically selected Dereck Lively II before flipping him to Dallas for Cason Wallace and financial flexibility. So far, the move has worked out pretty well for both teams. Lively has been impactful when healthy, but Wallace has become a major contributor on one of the best teams in basketball.<\/p>\n

Then came Nikola Topi\u0107 in 2024. With an already-loaded roster, the Thunder were in a position where they could afford to gamble on a highly talented player recovering from injury. That\u2019s the luxury of building one of the deepest organizations in basketball.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s also what makes this pick fascinating.<\/p>\n

Unlike most teams in the lottery, Oklahoma City doesn\u2019t need immediate star production here. The Thunder are already champions with one of the youngest cores in the NBA still intact. But several matchups against the Spurs this season\u2014particularly those involving Victor Wembanyama\u2014did highlight that this roster may still need to reach another physical level.<\/p>\n

Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have both been highly impactful, but Oklahoma City could still benefit from adding more frontcourt strength, rebounding, and defensive versatility.<\/p>\n

That opens the door to several interesting options.<\/p>\n

Morez Johnson Jr. could fit beautifully within OKC\u2019s defensive ecosystem because of his physicality and ability to defend multiple actions. Jayden Quaintance carries medical questions, but if teams feel comfortable with the long-term outlook, his athleticism and defensive upside would be extremely intriguing in this environment. Hannes Steinbach has drawn comparisons to Hartenstein because of his size, rebounding, and offensive feel.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Oklahoma City may simply continue leaning into versatile wing depth. Players like Dailyn Swain, Nate Ament, or Cameron Carr all feel plausible given the Thunder\u2019s love for length, versatility, and developmental upside.<\/p>\n

The important thing here is that Oklahoma City no longer has to draft out of desperation. They can prioritize infrastructure, fit, and long-term sustainability instead of forcing a player into immediate responsibility. Eventually, the financial realities of maintaining a championship core will force younger players into larger roles, making it increasingly important for the Thunder to prioritize production and functionality over pure theoretical upside.<\/p>\n

Historically, this organization has done that extremely well.<\/p>\n

The Miami Heat are one of several teams in this lottery drafting at a spot they\u2019ve only selected from once before during the Larry Bird Era\u2014and it really wasn\u2019t that long ago.<\/p>\n

Back in the 2019 NBA Draft, Miami selected Tyler Herro out of Kentucky with the 13th pick.<\/p>\n

That selection has aged pretty well.<\/p>\n

Herro spent just one season at Kentucky before entering the NBA, and he has steadily grown into one of the better offensive guards from his draft class. Since arriving in Miami, Tyler has averaged over 20 points per game across multiple seasons, earned an All-Star appearance, and won Sixth Man of the Year.<\/p>\n

More importantly, Herro represents something Miami has consistently done well during the Pat Riley era:<\/p>\n

Finding contributors without needing premium draft positioning.<\/p>\n

That matters because the Heat constantly operate under pressure. Miami is perpetually balancing playoff expectations, aggressive cap management, and the pursuit of star-level free-agent talent. Hitting on picks in this range is not optional for them\u2014it\u2019s necessary.<\/p>\n

To their credit, they\u2019ve largely done it.<\/p>\n

Kasparas Jaku\u010dionis immediately looked like a strong value selection in last year\u2019s draft, flashing efficient shooting, passing feel, and defensive competitiveness. Kel\u2019el Ware still has areas to refine, but his combination of rim protection, rebounding, and floor spacing gives Miami an intriguing modern center archetype. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has already developed into one of the more reliable connective forwards in basketball.<\/p>\n

That brings us to 2026.<\/p>\n

Miami once again feels like a team searching for another offensive organizer\u2014someone capable of helping initiate offense while fitting into the Heat\u2019s demanding developmental environment.<\/p>\n

That could make several guards in this range extremely interesting.<\/p>\n

Labaron Philon, Kingston Flemings, Ebuka Okorie, and Bennett Stirtz all make varying degrees of sense depending on how Miami prioritizes shot creation, decision-making, and defensive versatility.<\/p>\n

The Heat could also pivot toward wing depth.<\/p>\n

Dailyn Swain and Cameron Carr would fit the sort of athletic, developmental wing archetypes Miami has historically gravitated toward. Even a bigger swing like Morez Johnson Jr. cannot be entirely ruled out despite the current frontcourt makeup.<\/p>\n

The important thing is this:<\/p>\n

Miami feels like one of the few organizations in this range where role clarity and developmental expectations are already firmly established.<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t guarantee they\u2019ll make the perfect selection, but it does make it easier to trust the infrastructure surrounding whichever player ultimately lands there.<\/p>\n

Plenty of directions make sense for Miami here.<\/p>\n

Most of them probably end with a useful NBA player.<\/p>\n

The Charlotte Hornets close out both this portion of the lottery and this edition of the \u201cShould You Be Worried?\u201d mini-series. Like the Clippers earlier in the lottery, Charlotte has never drafted at this exact slot during the Larry Bird Era, so we have to lean more heavily on recent draft history.<\/p>\n

Honestly, how confident you feel about Charlotte probably depends on how far back you choose to look.<\/p>\n

If you focus on the recent past, there\u2019s actually quite a bit of reason for optimism.<\/p>\n

Last season, the Hornets brought in Kon Knueppel, Sion James, and Ryan Kalkbrenner\u2014all of whom immediately contributed to a team that jumped from 19 wins to 44. Knueppel especially looked like a home run selection, giving Cooper Flagg a legitimate run for Rookie of the Year while looking every bit like a future All-Star.<\/p>\n

Brandon Miller has already developed into a consistent 20-point-per-game scorer, while LaMelo Ball has finally begun translating his talent into more winning basketball.<\/p>\n

Even the earlier reach on Tidjane Sala\u00fcn doesn\u2019t feel nearly as questionable now as it did on draft night.<\/p>\n

That matters because Charlotte suddenly feels like an organization with actual direction.<\/p>\n

The Hornets are no longer drafting from a place of desperation. They already have a clearer pecking order than several teams around them in this range, which gives them flexibility entering the middle of this draft.<\/p>\n

That flexibility could open the door to several fascinating options.<\/p>\n

Jayden Quaintance probably carries one of the murkier medical evaluations in the class, but if teams feel comfortable long term, his combination of defensive upside, athleticism, and passing feel gives him legitimate Top-10 talent in this draft.<\/p>\n

Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg both make a lot of sense as physical frontcourt additions capable of complementing Charlotte\u2019s current core. Nate Ament would fit beautifully as a long-term 3-and-D forward option if he\u2019s still available here.<\/p>\n

There are also versatile wings like Karim Lopez and Dailyn Swain, along with skilled big man Hannes Steinbach, whose rebounding and natural feel could easily appeal to a front office looking to strengthen its rotation depth.<\/p>\n

More importantly, Charlotte finally feels stable.<\/p>\n

That can obviously change quickly in the NBA\u2014just ask the Hornets from two years ago\u2014but this roster no longer feels like it\u2019s searching for a singular savior. There\u2019s less pressure here to land a future superstar and more emphasis on continuing to build functional infrastructure around the players already in place.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a much healthier place to draft from.<\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter: StephenGHoops<\/a><\/p>\n

Catch me on BlueSky: StephenGHoops<\/a><\/p>\n

Catch the Draft Sickos show LIVE on the No Ceilings NBA channel<\/a>:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Share No Ceilings<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One of my favorite things to do during the draft cycle is look backward. It\u2019s fun to let…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":685383,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[557],"tags":[64,63,590,85],"class_list":["post-685382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nba","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nba","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=685382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685382\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/685383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=685382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=685382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=685382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}