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<\/p>\nSilvana Rota is breaking the habit of a lifetime.<\/p>\n
“No way am I ever voting Labor again,” she said.<\/p>\n
“I’ve had enough.”<\/p>\n
Born to Italian migrants and raised in Cabramatta West in Sydney’s south-west, she grew up believing that only Labor would stick up for her.<\/p>\n
“[Mum] told me it’s for the working class, for the poor people, so I did as I was told.”<\/p>\n
Now, she thinks her loyalty has been misplaced.<\/p>\n
“They’ve lost my respect,” she said.<\/p>\n
Ms Rota is frustrated with public transport services near her home in Edensor Park, describing it as a “black hole” for investment.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Western Sydney is a key target area for One Nation. (ABC News: Nick Dole)<\/p>\n
Energy bills are another worry, especially in the warmer months.<\/p>\n
“Western Sydney gets so hot and muggy \u2026 and we have to run the air conditioning in summer all the time.”<\/p>\n
However, her biggest concern is the lack of affordable housing, which has prompted her adult daughter to look for alternatives in Tasmania.<\/p>\n
“There’s not enough supply,” she said.<\/p>\n
“The young kids, what are they going to do? Just stay with their parents forever?<\/p>\n
“You can never get ahead.”<\/p>\n
Frustrated by a perceived lack of progress from both the state and federal governments, she is planning to switch her vote to support Paul Hanson’s One Nation.<\/p>\n
“I’ll give them a go,” she said.<\/p>\n
The race is on<\/p>\n
After One Nation’s victory in the Farrer by-election earlier this month, high-profile recruit Barnaby Joyce said the party would seek to claim more territory.<\/p>\n
“Western Sydney, here we come,” he declared.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce celebrate One Nation’s win at the Farrer by-election. (AAP: Bianca De Marchi)<\/p>\n
The next opportunity to test support for One Nation in NSW will be the state election on March 13.<\/p>\n
With less than 10 months to go, One Nation still needs to select candidates and develop policies to present to the state’s voters.<\/p>\n
While Australia’s immigration policy is a matter for the federal government, Ms Rota said it would still influence her vote next March.<\/p>\n
And Pauline Hanson’s push to dramatically reduce the number of new arrivals appeals to her.<\/p>\n
“It’s not about race, it’s about numbers,” Ms Rota said.<\/p>\n
“My parents were immigrants. I’m not against immigration.<\/p>\n
“But why do we have so many coming in? How about we look after the people who are already here?”<\/p>\n
Beyond the city limits<\/p>\n
One Nation made new inroads into NSW parliament in 2019, with the election of upper house MPs Mark Latham and Rod Roberts.<\/p>\n
Mr Latham resigned his seat in 2023 and successfully sought re-election for a new eight-year term, with former Labor MP Tania Mihailuk filling the One Nation vacancy.<\/p>\n
However, all three have since quit the party.<\/p>\n
Antony Green, the ABC’s veteran election analyst, said support for One Nation had a “peculiar pattern”.<\/p>\n
“The further you get away from [central Sydney], the higher the One Nation vote,” he said.<\/p>\n
“Which gives them some chances in parts of western and south-western Sydney, but their prospects would always be better outside of Sydney.”<\/p>\n
For example, in the Labor-held seat of Cessnock, One Nation came second in the 2023 state election, recording 15 per cent of the primary vote.<\/p>\n
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Mr Samaras says some outer Sydney seats will be vulnerable. (Peter Healy)<\/p>\n
Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist and current director at political research firm RedBridge Group said One Nation would be buoyed by its recent successes.<\/p>\n
“They will have a very good day if the current trajectory holds, particularly in regional New South Wales, around the Hunter area and Lake Macquarie.”<\/p>\n
Outer Sydney seats like Camden and Penrith were also vulnerable, he said.<\/p>\n
“But as you come into Sydney, the situation for One Nation is a lot more challenging, especially up against the Minns government.”<\/p>\n
Mr Samaras said the party would struggle to attract young, university-educated voters, and especially people from diverse cultural backgrounds.<\/p>\n
The Western Sydney challenge![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/668c350e28f7f643803a9c3037f98bc1.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
Jwan Alzuhairi says she can’t afford to live by herself. (ABC News: Nick Dole)<\/p>\n
Jwan Alzuhairi is one such example.<\/p>\n
The 28-year-old lives with her parents and works in a fish shop in Liverpool.<\/p>\n
“I’m a single mum and I can’t afford to live by myself,” she said.<\/p>\n
“But I’m still helping them pay the rent.”<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
Ms Alzuhairi says locals will not support One Nation’s calls to cut immigration. (ABC News: Nick Dole)<\/p>\n
While she shares the frustration of many voters about housing affordability, Pauline Hanson’s message doesn’t resonate with her.<\/p>\n
Ms Alzuhairi, who was born in Iraq, said many locals were proud of their diverse backgrounds and wouldn’t support One Nation’s calls for large-scale cuts to immigration.<\/p>\n
“I don’t agree. I see it’s a nice thing to be multicultural here,” she said.<\/p>\n
According to RedBridge research, about 70 per cent of voters who speak a language other than English at home would support the Minns government in a two-party-preferred contest with One Nation.<\/p>\n
Mr Samaras said those types of voters viewed Labor as the party that can “best resist” One Nation.<\/p>\n
“These individuals, in very significant numbers, will gravitate towards the Minns government and inflate their primary [vote] in key seats,” he said.<\/p>\n
The NSW voting quirk<\/p>\n
While the premier has previously said he expected to lose votes to One Nation, the Coalition has even more at stake.<\/p>\n
Across the country, the Liberals and Nationals are already losing ground to Pauline Hanson’s party.<\/p>\n