{"id":697837,"date":"2026-05-27T12:23:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T12:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/697837\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T12:23:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T12:23:10","slug":"mlb-season-predictions-2-0-how-did-the-first-two-months-impact-our-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/697837\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB season predictions 2.0: How did the first two months impact our picks?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In March, the majority of our MLB staff did not have Shohei Ohtani as a legitimate NL Cy Young Award contender. Nor did they have the Cleveland Guardians winning a third straight AL Central division title.<\/p>\n

They did, however, predict that Mason Miller would be baseball\u2019s best reliever and that Kevin McGonigle would be in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation, so some credit is due.<\/p>\n

Welcome to Version 2.0 of our season predictions. We\u2019ll be revisiting these predictions at multiple intervals, and while the questions will stay the same, the answers will undoubtedly evolve once again.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s our expectations for how the remainder of the 2026 MLB season will shake out, with expert analysis and critique from MLB senior writers Tim Britton and Zack Meisel, along with senior editor Johnny Flores Jr.<\/p>\n

Note: Tables display the percentage of votes received each month. You can find our season predictions from March here<\/a>. All stats are through the end of play on Tuesday unless otherwise noted.<\/p>\n

Tim Britton: It wasn\u2019t that hard to imagine a world where Atlanta won the NL East. But I could not foresee it taking command of the division this quickly, given the injuries it endured in spring training. The Phillies have recovered from their April, but there\u2019s just such a wide gap already.<\/p>\n

Zack Meisel: Even though only two teams received votes, can we take a moment to appreciate the collective competency of the NL Central? Hey, AL Central and AL West: Take notes. All five teams boast a winning record. Hopefully, this remains a crowded, confusing, captivating race throughout the summer.<\/p>\n

Johnny Flores Jr.: The Brewers are eternal. It just took another 41 percent of our voters from Version 1.0 to 2.0 to realize that. Much like the Mets making us all look like fools, the Padres have a really funny opportunity before the All-Star break. San Diego will play the Dodgers seven times before the Midsummer Classic and that 3 1\/2 game deficit in the NL West could be vanquished, making us all look like fools for predicting otherwise.<\/p>\n

Britton: A full 90 percent behind the Padres is a little surprising, given some of their underlying metrics and pretty clear concerns on offense. A really good bullpen allows you to outperform your run differential all season long, but I\u2019d feel more confident in San Diego if any of its best hitters had an OPS higher than .700.<\/p>\n

Meisel: Our voters seem to think this is all but set, with the only mystery being whether the Pirates or Phillies will capture the final Wild Card spot. A lot can change in a few months, though. Just ask the 88 percent of our voting body that originally picked the Mets, but quickly (and understandably) abandoned them.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: Though the panel believes the NL field is mostly a matter of formality, that third Wild Card spot offers some of the most intrigue. As it stands, five clubs are 2\u00a0 games back or fewer for that final spot. There\u2019s a very real scenario where the Nationals (1 1\/2 games back, 0 percent of the vote) take that final spot over the Phillies (2 games back, 79 percent of the vote).<\/p>\n

Britton: OK, so look, this poll ran for a week. When I picked the Tigers to still win the AL Central, they were only 7 1\/2 games back in the midst of being swept by Cleveland. Now? I think I\u2019d change my mind. (And pick the White Sox, of course!)<\/p>\n

Meisel: In March, none of our voters thought the Astros would win the AL West. Two months have elapsed, and no one in that division has a winning record. And, still, none of our voters think the Astros will win the AL West. The Mariners have ample time to figure it out and make our voters look wise.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: This poll is perhaps the most emblematic aspect of the Cleveland baseball experience. Before the season started, no one had them winning the AL Central. Two months later, they are the overwhelming favorites. Given how putrid the AL West is, the Guardians might waltz into the AL\u2019s No. 2 seed with the 20th-best offense in baseball by OPS.<\/p>\n

Britton: I was one of the 17 percent on the Athletics\u2019 bandwagon before the season, but even I\u2019m surprised they\u2019re as popular a postseason pick as they are right now. The run differential is underwater and the third-order winning percentage is worse. But it\u2019s the AL, so sure, I still went with them.<\/p>\n

Meisel: I\u2019m fairly confident the Angels will not seize a playoff berth. Beyond that, uh\u2026 who knows? The Tigers are tied for the second-worst record in MLB, yet received the seventh-highest vote total. The White Sox and Twins, two teams our voters initially thought would flirt with 100 losses, would be Wild Card teams if the playoffs started today. Good news for the Tigers and Royals and Red Sox and Blue Jays and Mariners and Astros and \u2014 hoo boy, there are a lot of underachievers in the AL\u2026 the playoffs do not, in fact, start today.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: Unless the non-division leaders pick up the pace, there\u2019s a very real chance we get at least one, if not two, teams at or under .500 in the postseason. At this point, it\u2019s very much take your pick among the rest of the AL field, and the panel clearly is split on who will make the postseason.<\/p>\n

Do you believe that the Tigers could turn things around from 13 games under .500 to get into the field? Or do you believe that the Munetaka Murakami-led White Sox are real enough to not fade in the second half? Or perhaps the Blue Jays get healthy enough to give the rest of the field a scare.<\/p>\n

Britton: The National League playoffs could be outstanding. Los Angeles and Atlanta have looked like the best teams in baseball this season, with Milwaukee close behind. San Diego\u2019s bullpen makes it terrifying in October. Over in the AL, unless the Rays continue to overperform, I\u2019d take the Yankees over the field.<\/p>\n

Meisel: The Yankees and Mariners attracted 95 percent of the AL votes, and neither leads its division. The Rays (and Guardians) apparently haven\u2019t converted our staff into full-fledged believers quite yet.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: The MLB postseason could very much mirror the NBA in that the real World Series might end up being the Dodgers vs. Braves for the NL pennant, the same way the \u201creal\u201d NBA Finals are the ongoing Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs series. In that scenario, the Yankees are very much the Knicks, riding a stellar pitching staff and Aaron Judge to multiple-run wins over the underperforming field. Also, who doesn’t want to see WWE’s Danhausen “curse”<\/a> whoever the Yankees are playing?<\/p>\n

Britton: Let\u2019s give some credit here to four teams on the Opening Day list who have played themselves off it in the Nationals, Twins, Cardinals and White Sox. The Nats\u2019 offense leading the league in runs per game is one of the season\u2019s biggest surprises to me.<\/p>\n

Meisel: The Rays have won 100 games (and exactly 100) once in their history. The Angels, somehow, have never lost 100 games in a season. Both are on track to happen in 2026.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.:\u00a0Do we live in a world where the Rockies might’ve figured things out before the Angels? Yes.<\/p>\n

Britton: I think the Red Sox will also end up falling short of the postseason, but I\u2019m wondering now how close the Mets get to .500 again at any point this season.<\/p>\n

Meisel: I\u2019m fascinated by the voter(s) who decided to stick with the Orioles as their World Series dark horse. What a creative mind they must have. The Red Sox owe the Mets a thank-you note for receiving the bulk of the attention in the \u201cbiggest disappointment\u201d category.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: Shoutout to the 4 percent of voters from Version 1.0 who had the foresight to predict that the Mets and disappointment are forever entwined.<\/p>\n

Note: In the spring, this question was \u201cWho will be the first manager fired?\u201d Nobody mentioned Alex Cora or Rob Thomson, both of whom were gone by early May.<\/p>\n

Britton: It felt coming into the year like the Tony Vitello experience could go really well or really poorly, with little room for anything in between. It has not gone really well.<\/p>\n

Meisel: Wait, what did Mark Kotsay do to earn a vote? This feels like a coin flip between Joe Espada and Carlos Mendoza, and by the end of the year, the coin\u2019s probably going to land on both heads and tails.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: In Version 1.0, I predicted that Astros owner Jim Crane would give Joe Espada until the All-Star break. I still think that\u2019s true, especially given how bad the AL West is. Interestingly enough, Kurt Suzuki, who is heading the league\u2019s worst team, has had his odds reduced.<\/p>\n

Britton: I, for one, appreciate that Shohei Ohtani plans to win the MVP every year but in different styles: This year, being a lights-out starter and only one of the better hitters in the league is a nice foil to the year he won without pitching at all.<\/p>\n

Meisel: Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani? You don\u2019t say. Witt has a healthy advantage in fWAR over the rest of the league (non-Ohtani division), if you\u2019re into that kind of thing. Ohtani sucks up all the oxygen in any NL MVP conversation, but Elly De La Cruz, Corbin Carroll and Jordan Walker have been absolute delights to watch this season. Also, Kyle Schwarber could hit 60 home runs. Feels like it\u2019s worth mentioning that.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: If there was ever a year for a non-Aaron Judge MVP in the AL, I think this is the year. Without a historic power stroke, competition from teammate Ben Rice and stellar pitching as the focus in New York, Judge almost looks mortal. Keyword: almost. That should give enough attention for everyone to appreciate the five-tool player that is Bobby Witt Jr.<\/p>\n

As for the NL, well, at least everyone tried their best to unseat Shohei Ohtani.<\/p>\n

Britton: Cam Schlittler has been really good, obviously, but the number is so big here because of injuries to last year\u2019s top three finishers in Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown. That\u2019s made this a much more open race than it looked back on Opening Day.<\/p>\n

Meisel: Shohei Ohtani has a 0.73 ERA. Cristopher S\u00e1nchez has a scoreless streak stretching 37 2\/3 innings. Paul Skenes is always a threat to tear through the summer and post another sub-2.00 ERA. The Braves could toss both Chris Sale (1.89 ERA) or Bryce Elder (1.97 ERA) into the conversation. Chase Burns (1.96 ERA) can\u2019t be ignored. Oh, and The Miz has 100 strikeouts and a 1.83 ERA in 64 innings. Let\u2019s sit back, kick up our feet and enjoy this one.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: If Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown and Garrett Crochet were all healthy, and Cam Schlittler was performing as he is, then the AL would be home to an all-time race. Instead, it\u2019s looking like it might be a landslide win.<\/p>\n

The NL, on the other hand, might have the most heated discussion this side of Zack Wheeler vs. Corbin Burnes in 2021. Cristopher S\u00e1nchez has the innings and the ERA to match. Shohei Ohtani might not qualify by innings, but his ERA is otherworldly (don\u2019t look at his FIP). Jacob Misiorowski has the ERA and some historic performances. All the while, Paul Skenes is lurking, seemingly ready to throw a perfecto at the drop of a hat.<\/p>\n

Britton: It\u2019s officially Pat Murphy Fatigue, right? If Don Mattingly gets the Phillies comfortably into the postseason, he has to be a serious contender.<\/p>\n

Meisel: It\u2019s officially Stephen Vogt Fatigue, right? Based on how voters tend to approach this award \u2014 final team record versus preseason sentiment \u2014 it seems like it\u2019s\u00a0 Kevin Cash\u2019s hardware to lose in the AL (though Will Venable could have a great case, too). How appropriate would it be for Cash to end Vogt\u2019s mini-reign? Cash (2020, 2021), Vogt (2024, 2025) and Pat Murphy (2024, 2025) are three of the four managers ever to win consecutive Manager of the Year awards. The late Bobby Cox (2004, 2005) is the other.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: The real fatigue is in trying to determine what makes someone a \u201cManager of the Year.\u201d Motion to rename this award \u2014 Guy whose team performed better than we expected and looked good while doing it.<\/p>\n

Britton: As good as Munetaka Murakami has been, it\u2019s a lot easier to imagine Kevin McGonigle still being an impact player through his slumps than it is for the White Sox slugger.<\/p>\n

Meisel: This is Parker Messick erasure. The Guardians lefty has a 2.24 ERA and is on pace for 200 strikeouts. It\u2019s not smoke and mirrors; he did this last August and September, too. What a crowded field, though. Travis Bazzana, Munetaka Murakami, Trey Yesavage and Kevin McGonigle have all been excellent. Chase DeLauter, too. Good luck, BBWAA voters.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: I voted for Munetaka Murakami before the season and voted for him again in our 2.0 poll. I believe he has a better chance than most are giving him. Don\u2019t get it twisted, Kevin McGonigle has been sensational, but Murakami has more than held his own.<\/p>\n

Among qualified rookies, no one has a better wRC+ than Murakami, he leads rookies in slugging percentage, is top five in on-base percentage, has the better walk rate and the most home runs by a significant margin. The fWAR discrepancy between McGonigle and Murakami (2.0 vs. 1.8) is almost negligible.<\/p>\n

If Murakami were to beat or match Aaron Judge\u2019s AL rookie record for homers (52) or at least eclipse Mark McGwire (49), then I think the award is his.<\/p>\n

Britton: We didn\u2019t get any Mason Miller Cy Young Award votes, but he sure looks like a slam dunk for the BBWAA\u2019s newest award.<\/p>\n

Meisel: What a strange year for closers. Odds are, the ninth-inning guy for your favorite team is injured or struggling. Or, you\u2019re fortunate enough to root for the likes of Louis Varland or Bryan Baker or Riley O\u2019Brien.<\/p>\n

Flores Jr.: Has any award experienced as much turnover year over year than \u201cReliever of the Year\u201d? We\u2019ve had the Rolaids Relief Man, the Delivery Man of the Year, the Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman award and now the BBWAA\u2019s award. Call me when we\u2019re awarding the DoorDash Reliever of the Year award and then we can talk.<\/p>\n