More than 240,000 participants are expected to be shifted off the national disability insurance scheme in the four years after new eligibility rules are introduced, internal documents reveal.<\/p>\n
Newly released departmental modelling also shows proposed cuts to funding for social, civic and community participation will help achieve the single biggest saving of the measures the Albanese government is pursuing to contain the scheme\u2019s ballooning growth.<\/p>\n
The federal government is planning drastic changes to the NDIS after warnings it was projected to cost $117bn a year in a decade\u2019s time \u2013 up from $50bn annually \u2013 without urgent and far-reaching interventions.<\/p>\n
Labor wants to tighten eligibility criteria, subject all participants to standardised assessments and register more types of providers.<\/p>\n
Announcing the reform last month at the National Press Club, the health minister, Mark Butler, said<\/a> preliminary modelling showed the changes would reduce the number of participants to 600,000 by the end of the decade \u2013 about 160,000 fewer than existing levels.<\/p>\n But a document tabled in the Senate on Wednesday revealed the number of participants to be \u201cexited\u201d \u2013 or shifted \u2013 from the scheme to achieve that target by mid-2031 was 241,000.<\/p>\n The modelling showed participant numbers were forecast to peak at 817,000 next year before the new eligibility rules start on 1 January 2028.<\/p>\n Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n The new system \u2013 details of which are yet to be finalised \u2013 will determine entry based on a person\u2019s functional capacity, rather than allowing access based on diagnosis alone, as was intended when the NDIS was designed.<\/p>\n The modelling revealed 33,000 existing participants were expected to be pushed off the scheme by 30 June 2028, with that number growing to 125,000 by mid-2029.<\/p>\n By mid-2031, a total of 241,000 people who were on the scheme before 1 January 2028 would no longer be receiving NDIS supports.<\/p>\n The modelling expects the NDIS to be supporting 598,000 people at that point, compared with the projected 944,000 had no changes been made.<\/p>\n Almost 350,000 fewer people would be on the NDIS as a result of either being forced off the scheme or denied entry in the first place.<\/p>\n