{"id":702773,"date":"2026-05-29T18:57:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T18:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/702773\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T18:57:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T18:57:10","slug":"mlb-home-run-predictions-today-best-hr-prop-bets-picks-parlay-odds-for-friday-may-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/702773\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, May 29"},"content":{"rendered":"

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The home run grind rolls into a great Friday slate, and the +EV dingers and MLB player props<\/a> are plentiful today.<\/p>\n

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It’s never a bad idea to look for home runs in Cincinnati, but the pitching matchup is making it even better today, and getting the No. 2 HR\/FB hitter in baseball at a price north of +500 is also making the card.<\/p>\n

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 29.<\/p>\n

UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.<\/p>\n

Best MLB home run props today<\/p>\n

Player to hit a HR<\/p>\n

Odds<\/p>\n

Mike Yastrzemski<\/a><\/p>\n

+577<\/p>\n

Bryce Harper<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

+527<\/p>\n

Aaron Judge<\/a><\/p>\n

+246<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcb2Today’s HR parlay<\/p>\n

+13630<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Mike\u00a0Yastrzemski\u00a0(+577)<\/p>\n

Great American Ball Park is always a strong place to target home runs, and Mike Yastrzemski<\/a> is one of the better +EV dinger looks on the board today with a fair price around +480, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s in strong form right now with the team\u2019s third-best slugging percentage and\u00a0wOBA<\/a> over the last 30 days, while also getting the ball in the air consistently with a 52% fly-ball rate that ranks second on the team this month.<\/p>\n

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He\u2019ll face Chris Paddack<\/a>, who has been crushed at GABP this year with a 12.67 ERA and a 2.2 HR\/9. His 35% groundball rate does him no favors in this park, and his Bottom-10 xFIP<\/a> among MLB starters over the last 30 days suggests the struggles are very real.<\/p>\n

Pitcher\/hitter history is usually secondary, but it\u2019s still worth noting that Yastrzemski has had success against Paddack with three home runs across 25 plate appearances.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: Reds.TV, BravesVision<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+527)<\/p>\n

Dodger Stadium grades out as a Top-5 park for home runs today, per\u00a0Ballpark Pal<\/a>, with 9-mph winds blowing out to right-center field.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s good news for a\u00a0Bryce Harper<\/a> bomb priced north of +500, with a buy point at +480 or better. Harper has already launched seven home runs this month and owns an absurd 31.8% HR\/FB rate over the last 30 days, which ranks second in baseball behind only teammate Kyle Schwarber<\/a> at 37.5%.<\/p>\n

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Harper\u2019s fly-ball rate hasn\u2019t been elite lately, but if he gets one in the air against Justin Wrobleski<\/a>, it could quickly turn into four bases. Wrobleski is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits who has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters. There’s often value in targeting reverse-split arms because the market tends to overprice the lefty vs. lefty matchup.<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+246)<\/p>\n

When you\u2019re cold, it\u2019s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York\u2019s Aaron Judge<\/a>. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer.<\/p>\n

This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT\u2019s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino<\/a> has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year.<\/p>\n

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His 2.2 HR\/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBI across eight at-bats against Severino.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: YES, NBCS-California<\/p>\n

Josh Inglis’ 2026 Transparency Record<\/p>\n

HR picks: 13-100, -32.94 units<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s HR parlay<\/p>\n

Mike Yastrzemski<\/p>\n

Bet Now
+13630<\/p>\n

Bryce Harper\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aaron Judge<\/p>\n

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.<\/p>\n

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com<\/a>, read the full article here<\/a> and view our best betting sites<\/a> or check out our top sportsbook promos<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":702774,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[6097,64,63,17856,33567,25426,5152,161138,33139,591,85],"class_list":["post-702773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-aaron-judge","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-bryce-harper","tag-chris-paddack","tag-justin-wrobleski","tag-kyle-schwarber","tag-luis-severino","tag-mike-yastrzemski","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/702773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=702773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/702773\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/702774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=702773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=702773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=702773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}