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<\/a><\/p>\nThere\u2019s plenty of reason to believe each team should be the favorite.<\/p>\n
For Vegas, it\u2019s that the Golden Knights dismantled a behemoth, sweeping the seemingly unbeatable Colorado Avalanche with one of the most stifling defensive playoff performances in recent memory. While the standings may not tell the tale, the Golden Knights were a sleeping giant given their territorial dominance this season.<\/p>\n
For Carolina, it\u2019s the fact that the Hurricanes have lost just a single game during the entire postseason, a result that probably had more to do with rust than anything else, given the rest of their series against the Montreal Canadiens. For years, the entire Hurricanes\u2019 ethos was questioned for their inability to get over the hump; here they are with a vengeance.<\/p>\n
If it has to be one team, though, it\u2019s tough to go against the beasts of the East. Everything Carolina has built over the last decade has coalesced into this moment. The Hurricanes start in the driver\u2019s seat as a result.<\/p>\n
The numbers<\/p>\n
The Hurricanes are a well-oiled machine. They were one of the best five-on-five teams of the regular season, and that\u2019s carried into the playoffs with a dominant 60.7 percent xG through three rounds. It\u2019s a product of overwhelming offense that comes in waves, between the Canes\u2019 signature forecheck, which is complemented by a stronger transition game, and relentless pressure in the defensive zone.<\/p>\n Carolina may have had an easier path to this point, but going 12-1 with those sparkling numbers helped this team glow up from a plus-62 Net Rating to start the playoffs to a plus-74.<\/p>\n By the numbers, the Golden Knights were a top five-on-five team of the regular season without the results on either end of the ice. But a change behind the bench has helped this group actually look like a five-on-five force. That\u2019s helped Vegas jump nine goals to a plus-60 Net Rating.<\/p>\n The Golden Knights are only hovering around break-even in xG through three rounds. But if they can crush Carolina\u2019s momentum like they did Colorado\u2019s in Round 3, after limiting one of the best offensive teams in the league to just 2.49 expected goals against, then this should be a tight series.<\/p>\n The special teams battle may be another opening for Vegas. Neither team gives up much on the penalty kill, and both play a disruptive short-handed game. Carolina\u2019s managed this far without a ton of power-play success because its penalty kill is so stingy. But the Golden Knights could challenge that, now that they\u2019ve found their footing again with their five-forward top unit.<\/p>\n The big question<\/p>\n Can Sebastian Aho\u2019s line wake up at the right time?<\/p>\n A year ago, the Hurricanes found themselves on the business end of a gentleman\u2019s sweep. The soon-to-be back-to-back champion Florida Panthers took care of Carolina in five games in an Eastern Conference final that was closer than it seemed in some regards, but ultimately an ugly result for an overmatched roster that had spent the regular season raising expectations to an unreasonable level.<\/p>\n The Panthers scored the first goal in Games 1, 2, 3 and 5, winning all four, and held a 21-10 edge in overall scoring, 15-5 at even strength. Along the way, they taught the Hurricanes lessons about physicality, consistency and composure that they\u2019ve put to use this spring, but also raised questions about the limitations of their lineup. After all, Florida had depth to match Carolina\u2019s with elite-talent alpha dogs such as Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk at the top of the pyramid. That\u2019s tough to beat, and the Hurricanes didn\u2019t come particularly close.<\/p>\n Ahead of Florida\u2019s clincher, Aho had three goals in his 13 career conference final games. That\u2019s a decent rate for a bottom-sixer, not someone who typically leads his team in points. To make matters worse, he scored twice in the first period of Game 5, and Carolina still lost. You could imagine a world in which Aho was a big enough star to front a Stanley Cup champion, and you could imagine a world in which Carolina surrounded him with enough other high-end players to make the debate meaningless. Last summer, we were living in neither of them \u2014 and either way, Carolina didn\u2019t seem fit to survive a late-playoff matchup without serious production from him.<\/p>\n In a way, that\u2019s the best compliment that can be paid to this version of the Hurricanes. They\u2019re here despite three rounds\u2019 worth of mid-grade play from their first line of Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. In past years, that would\u2019ve led to afternoons on the golf course. This postseason, it hasn\u2019t mattered.<\/p>\n We\u2019ll go further into why that is the case in a bit. The short answer is that added scoring depth throughout the lineup has served as a layer of insulation against cold streaks and mediocre play from guys such as Aho; Hurricanes general manager Eric Tulsky is fond of saying that they had a team that could win if everything went right, but needed to build one capable of winning when things went wrong. They\u2019ve done just that.<\/p>\n Still, the quest would be a whole lot simpler if Aho, Svechnikov and Jarvis were putting more goals on the board. In 132 minutes with them on the ice, Carolina has been outscored 3-2 (no other line has lost its minutes) and posted an expected goal share of 48 percent (no other line is below 60 percent). The rest of the Hurricanes\u2019 game got them past Ottawa, Philadelphia and Montreal while getting 0.91 goals per 60 from their first line. Playoff-tested, high-end talent such as Marner, Stone and Eichel is another ball of wax. Those three are likely to be spread throughout Vegas\u2019 lineup, potentially negating some of Carolina\u2019s depth scoring and putting more of the onus back on Aho and his linemates.<\/p>\n The X-factor<\/p>\n How much will goaltending matter?<\/p>\n \u201cBuild from the net out,\u201d goes the old hockey adage. The 2025 finalists are a counterpoint; both teams are in this position because of rosters built around the idea that you should ask as little from your goaltender as possible.<\/p>\n That\u2019s part of what made Vegas\u2019 95-point regular season so ironic; its goaltenders \u2014 Akira Schmid, Adin Hill, Carter Hart and Carl Lindblom \u2014 combined for an .889 five-on-five save percentage that was second-worst in the league and the single-biggest reason for that underwhelming point total. Hill and Hart both dealt with injuries, and Hart took over under John Tortorella, starting six of the seven regular-season games Tortorella coached. In the playoffs, despite some early shakiness against the Utah Mammoth, Hart has put up a .924 save percentage, second only to Carolina\u2019s Frederik Andersen.<\/p>\n Andersen has faced fewer shots at five-on-five than Hart (about 28 per 60 vs. 20) and saved a few more goals above expected, according to public models. Both have done their jobs well, serving as juiced-up caretakers who\u2019ve helped win some games and not lost any on their own. There\u2019s reason to think that\u2019ll continue on both sides. If it does, the series will be better for it.<\/p>\n The rosters<\/p>\n Carolina\u2019s top line isn\u2019t working? No problem: Logan Stankoven\u2019s is. Tremendously so, to the tune of a 12-4 goal differential and a stunning 70.7 xG rate. That level of dominance in both chances and results is practically unprecedented in the analytics era.<\/p>\n Since 2007-08, there have only been eight lines that have played 100 minutes or more and earned an xG of 70 percent or higher and there have been 14 to outscore their opponents by eight or more. Stankoven, flanked by Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake, is the only line that\u2019s done both. The lines that have come closest? Pavel Datsyuk\u2019s in 2008 (72 percent xG, but only up 10-3) and Anze Kopitar\u2019s in 2012 (12-4, but only a 66 percent xG). That is obviously incredible company to keep, one that speaks to Carolina\u2019s lineage as a dominant five-on-five team.<\/p>\n Of course, there is one key difference there: Datsyuk and Kopitar did that against the toughest matchups, Stankoven\u2019s line is third over the boards in that respect behind Aho and Jordan Staal (whose line is also rocking a 70 percent xG rate, by the way).<\/p>\n Stankoven\u2019s line is a microcosm of Carolina\u2019s depth advantage, an overwhelming collection of talent that is miles ahead of what most teams can muster in that spot. If Aho can play the glitzier stars across the ice to a near draw and Staal can shut down the other weapons, Stankoven\u2019s crew can handle the rest. That\u2019s the working theory and it\u2019s worked to an incredible degree so far. It\u2019s roughly in line with what Florida had last year with Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen, who finished the playoffs up 13-4 with a 55 percent xG rate. With a more dominant territorial advantage, Stankoven, Blake and Hall have upped the ante so far.<\/p>\n Having said that, Vegas presents a very different challenge than the one Carolina has faced. Montreal and Philadelphia didn\u2019t really have the difference-making depth to hang in the top nine, while Ottawa\u2019s disappeared at the wrong time. The Golden Knights look far more up to the challenge on paper.<\/p>\n As currently constructed, Vegas is going with the old Pittsburgh Penguins playbook by running Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner and Mark Stone on three separate lines. That has the potential to cause real headaches for Carolina, especially with how the former two have played.<\/p>\n Both Eichel and Marner have been Conn Smythe-worthy so far, scoring above a point-per-game rate while tilting the ice heavily with nearly 60 percent of the goals apiece. Their currently constructed lines are operating at a 57 percent xG rate with William Karlsson\u2019s addition to Marner\u2019s line being a major bonus. The question is whether Stone is up for the task.<\/p>\n Normally, that would be a major advantage on Vegas\u2019 third line, especially with Tomas Hertl also on it. But with Stone clearly not being 100 percent, it casts some doubt in this particular matchup. Stone missed two games against Colorado and while he did score three points, he didn\u2019t quite look himself \u2014 a theme of these playoffs. Stone is currently playing at a Net Rating pace of plus-7.5 per 82; he was at plus-23.2 per 82 during the season. His usually staunch defensive game has looked a lot more suspect. Eichel and Marner have done their part in that regard, but against Carolina, Vegas will need a lot more out of Stone.<\/p>\n Up front, there\u2019s one other unheralded advantage usually not spoken about: the fourth line. Carolina has one of the best in the league, while Vegas tends to struggle. If the top nine plays tight, that could be the difference.<\/p>\n While a lot of the forwards in this series have deservedly received a lot of hype \u2014 Stankoven, Hall, Marner, Eichel \u2014 it\u2019s actually a pair of defensemen who lead the respective teams in Net Rating: K\u2019Andre Miller and Shea Theodore.<\/p>\n Miller has been everything and more for the Hurricanes since arriving last summer and has taken his game to dizzying heights in these playoffs. When Wayne Gretzky praises a player\u2019s game, it\u2019s worth paying attention to. Miller has always been a toolsy player, and in these playoffs, he\u2019s finally putting the whole toolbox together. He currently has a plus-5.9 Net Rating to lead all players thanks to a 64 percent xG rate while being up 16-3 (!) on the scoreboard. The Canes are giving up just 0.77 GA\/60 and 2.1 xGA\/60 with Miller on the ice.<\/p>\n As for Theodore, his plus-3.1 Defensive Rating leads all players thanks to him allowing just 1.51 GA\/60 and 1.8 xGA\/60 \u2014 both of which held up well against Colorado. Theodore\u2019s growth as a premier defensive player this season, as a result of his skating and puck-moving, remains underrated.<\/p>\n Beyond those two, though, Carolina has the advantage. While both third pairs have crushed their sheltered minutes well, Shayne Gostisbehere and Alexander Nikishin have been more dominant \u2014 even with the context of opponents factored in. The bigger trouble resides in the other top four pairs. Jaccob Slavin has been as defensively excellent as ever (plus-1.8 Defensive Rating) to anchor his pair, but Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson have continued to be a serious sore spot for Vegas.<\/p>\n For the playoffs, Hanifin and Andersson have a 44 percent xG rate, which sagged to 42 percent against Colorado. For a Carolina team that\u2019s hellbent on possession, that looks like an exploitable matchup if that pair can\u2019t get their act together.<\/p>\n Hanifin and Andersson should both be a lot better on paper; it\u2019s time for them to show it. If they don\u2019t, there may simply be too many advantages in Carolina\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n The key matchup<\/p>\n Nikolaj Ehlers vs. Mitch Marner<\/p>\n Ehlers had some postseason moments in years past, but never generated much of a reputation for his playoff pedigree \u2014 at least, not until this spring.<\/p>\n In so many ways, Ehlers feels like the Hurricanes\u2019 missing piece. Carolina had to broaden its approach and add more dynamic weapons to punch the lineup, and Ehlers has been the key to that. He\u2019s unlocked Staal and Jordan Martinook in a new way, giving the Canes a deeper approach.<\/p>\n Vegas, on the other hand, has unlocked a whole new side of Marner, who was never known as a playoff performer, either. Now, he\u2019s more than that as a legitimate favorite for the Conn Smythe. The passing and puck-moving are top-notch, but it\u2019s just one thing he brings to the lineup. His shutdown play in tough minutes (Marner got the MacKinnon matchup on home ice over Eichel) and all situation usage make him the complete package. Now, he just has to keep it up in the highest-pressure environment the NHL has to offer.<\/p>\n The bottom line<\/p>\n For sports-business folks, Carolina vs. Vegas may not be a marquee matchup. But for fans of the game, it should be an absolute treat: a closely contested battle between two puck-possession powerhouses with the Stanley Cup on the line. May the best team win.<\/p>\n References<\/p>\n How these projections work<\/a><\/p>\n Understanding projection uncertainty<\/a><\/p>\n Resources<\/p>\n Evolving Hockey<\/a><\/p>\n Natural Stat Trick<\/a><\/p>\n Hockey Reference<\/a><\/p>\n NHL<\/a><\/p>\n All Three Zones Tracking<\/a> by Corey Sznajder<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Folks, we\u2019ve done it. The Stanley Cup Final is here, and broadcast executives across the continent are crying…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":706277,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[556],"tags":[64,63,3615,7530,575,85,7529],"class_list":["post-706276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-carolina-hurricanes","tag-fantasy-hockey","tag-nhl","tag-sports","tag-vegas-golden-knights"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/706276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=706276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/706276\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/706277"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=706276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=706276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=706276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n