reported<\/a> by The AFR\u2019s Luke Kinsella, the federal budget assumes $315 billion in new housing investment over 2026\u201127 and 2027\u201128 \u2014 $13.7 billion more than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which forecasts $301 billion.<\/p>\nEconomists say this gap is highly unusual and suggests the government may be overestimating housing supply by more than 10,000 homes over two years.<\/p>\n
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The RBA expects dwelling investment to fall from late 2027 due to construction constraints. By contrast, the Treasury expects strong growth to continue.<\/p>\n
![\"Private](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Private-dwelling-investment.png\")
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Economists say the RBA appears more aligned with current market conditions, such as labour shortages, rising input costs and builder insolvencies.<\/p>\n
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\u201cThe differences between Treasury\u2019s economic forecasts and those of the RBA are significant and hard to reconcile\u201d, Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe RBA appears to be taking account of current market conditions and constraints in the construction sector to a greater extent than Treasury\u201d.<\/p>\n
Seriously, why would dwelling construction rates increase when:<\/p>\n
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Interest rates are rising Material input costs are rising There is a shortage of construction workers Home prices are falling. <\/p>\n
These macroeconomic conditions point to lower construction rates, as forecast above by CBA and the RBA.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Labor continues to run an excessive immigration program that was revised upwards by 55,000 in the latest federal budget.<\/p>\n
![\"NOM](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/NOM-forecast-revisions.png\")
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As a result, Labor has ensured that housing demand via population growth will continue to exceed supply.<\/p>\n
The solution is simple: slash immigration. Otherwise, the housing shortage will worsen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Albanese government is failing dismally to meet its target of building 1.2 million homes over five years,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":707798,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-707797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/707797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=707797"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/707797\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/707798"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=707797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=707797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=707797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"Dwelling](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Albos-housing-target-2.png\")
<\/p>\n![\"New](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/CBA-baseline-dwelling-construction-forecast.png\")
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