{"id":708189,"date":"2026-06-01T12:06:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T12:06:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/708189\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T12:06:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T12:06:12","slug":"long-term-consumer-inflation-expectations-remained-stable-in-april-according-to-ecb-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/708189\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-term consumer inflation expectations remained stable in April according to ECB survey"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation expectations 1-year ahead at 4.0% vs 4.0% prior3-year ahead at 2.9% vs 3.0% prior5-year ahead 2.4% vs 2.4% priorFull report here<\/a><\/p>\n

The survey showed that consumers perceived inflation over the previous 12 months at 4.0%, up from 3.5% in March. However, expectations for inflation over the next year remained unchanged at 4.0%.<\/p>\n

Longer-term inflation expectations were stable to slightly lower. Expectations for inflation three years ahead declined to 2.9% from 3.0%, while five-year inflation expectations held steady at 2.4%, suggesting that consumers continue to believe inflation will gradually move closer to the ECB\u2019s target over time.<\/p>\n

Inflation uncertainty remained elevated, and lower-income households continued to report slightly higher inflation perceptions and expectations than wealthier households. Younger respondents generally expected lower inflation than older age groups.<\/p>\n

Consumers became less optimistic about income growth. Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months fell to 0.8%, down from 1.2% in March.<\/p>\n

At the same time, households reported stronger spending trends. Perceived spending growth over the past year increased to 5.3%, while expected spending growth over the coming year rose to 4.3% from 4.1%. Lower-income households anticipated somewhat faster spending growth than higher-income households, potentially reflecting ongoing pressure from elevated living costs.<\/p>\n

Consumers\u2019 outlook for the broader economy became slightly more pessimistic. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -2.2%, compared with -2.1% in March, indicating that households continue to anticipate economic contraction rather than expansion.<\/p>\n

Despite the weaker growth outlook, labour market expectations showed modest improvement. Consumers expected the unemployment rate in 12 months\u2019 time to decline slightly to 11.2% from 11.3%.<\/p>\n

Survey responses suggested a generally stable labour market, with the expected future unemployment rate remaining only slightly above the perceived current rate of 10.5%.<\/p>\n

However, quarterly labour market indicators painted a mixed picture. Unemployed respondents reported a higher probability of finding a job within the next three months, rising to 32.1% from 30.1% in January. At the same time, employed respondents became more concerned about job security, with the perceived probability of losing their job increasing to 8.8% from 8.2%.<\/p>\n

Income disparities remained evident, with lower-income households expecting significantly higher unemployment rates than wealthier households.<\/p>\n

While longer-term inflation expectations remain stable and should give the ECB some comfort, a more negative growth outlook suggest that households remain wary about the economic environment ahead. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inflation expectations 1-year ahead at 4.0% vs 4.0% prior3-year ahead at 2.9% vs 3.0% prior5-year ahead 2.4% vs…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":533068,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-708189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=708189"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708189\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/533068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=708189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=708189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=708189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}