{"id":709207,"date":"2026-06-01T23:16:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T23:16:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/709207\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T23:16:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T23:16:28","slug":"what-the-a-j-brown-blockbuster-trade-means-for-fantasy-football","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/709207\/","title":{"rendered":"What the A.J. Brown blockbuster trade means for fantasy football"},"content":{"rendered":"

The wait is finally over. No, I don\u2019t mean the release of \u201cSpider-Man: Brand New Day,\u201d which is still an excruciating two months away. The wait is over for \u201cA.J. Brown Traded to the Patriots Day<\/a>.\u201d While we all expected this outcome, the fantasy football impact is still worth reviewing.<\/p>\n

What this means for the Patriots<\/p>\n

Drake Maye: Since starting his first game, Maye\u2019s ranks among all quarterbacks on passes 20+ air yards (min. 500 attempts total):<\/p>\n

Expected points added per dropback (EPA\/DB): 2nd, 1.22
\nTouchdown per attempt (TD\/Att): 2nd, 22.5%
\nCompletion percentage (Comp%): 4th, 42.5%
\nTouchdown per interception (TD\/INT): 2nd, 4.5<\/p>\n

For 2025 only:<\/p>\n

EPA\/DB: 2nd, 1.48
\nTD\/Att: 4th, 21.7%
\nComp%: 3rd, 47.8%
\nTD\/INT: 2nd, 5.0<\/p>\n

A.J. Brown: As for Brown, his ranks among receivers since arriving in Philadelphia (min. 20 targets of 20+ air yards) are:<\/p>\n

EPA per target (EPA\/Tgt): 10th, 1.06
\nReception percentage (Rec%): 9th, 42.3%
\nTouchdown per target (TD\/Tgt): 10th, 15.4%<\/p>\n

For 2024-25 with Saquon Barkley in town (for a small offensive shift):<\/p>\n

EPA\/Tgt: 10th, 1.14
\nRec%: 10th, 47.4%
\nTD\/Tgt: 17th, 15.8%<\/p>\n

I throw those numbers out to show what we already know: Brown is a great big-play option. Maye has already established himself as one of the best downfield quarterbacks. In his nearly two seasons, Maye\u2019s top downfield option has been Kayshon Boutte (35.4 TmTGT%) followed by Kyle Williams and DeMario Douglas. Not one holds a candle to Brown, and yet, Maye put up top-notch numbers.<\/p>\n

Adding a true alpha wideout, who\u2019s also a terrific touchdown\/end-zone threat, will help Maye and the entire Patriots offense. Don\u2019t forget, the Pats already added Romeo Doubs in free agency, giving them a one-two punch at wide receiver that can rival most teams. While I expect the Patriots to still have a more balanced run\/pass approach than most teams, repeating last season\u2019s pass-rate mark (52.7% \u2014 tied for sixth-lowest) is not something I\u2019d predict. I\u2019d look for something more around a 55\/45 split, which not only helps Maye avoid any regression in fantasy, but it actually improves his argument to be alongside Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson as the top QB off the board in fantasy drafts.<\/p>\n

With Brown, at worst he should be the same backend WR1 in fantasy. There is room for improvement, of course, with Brown again reaching 15 fantasy points per game (FPPG) plausible, giving him a top-5 WR ceiling. Additionally, there is an arguable downtick for running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, but the offense\u2019s effectiveness can offset that to alleviate concerns. The main downgrade comes for any wideout after Brown and Doubs, and it\u2019s a ding to Hunter Henry\u2019s value, pushing him to the lower-end TE2 realm. But for fantasy purposes, Doubs should be a WR4 with WR3 upside, with Henderson and Stevenson in the low-RB2\/high-RB3 conversation.<\/p>\n

What this means for the Eagles<\/p>\n

We knew this was coming, and so did the Eagles, hence the Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers draft picks. And before we get to the value fallouts, let\u2019s address the topic of Jalen Hurts throwing over the middle \u2026 again. Yes, he\u2019s ranked near the very bottom in frequency, but there is a difference between \u201cdoesn\u2019t\u201d and \u201ccan\u2019t.\u201d And let me tell you, he CAN.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s go last 5 years (min 100)
\u2013 5.2 OffTGT% (T-4th lowest)
\u2013 9.6 TD\/ATT% (1st \u2014 LJax 9.1, 2nd)
\u2013 77.4 Comp% (8th \u2014 Allen 74.2, Brady 74.1, Herbert 74.1, Mahomes 70.5, etc)<\/p>\n

Is Hurts a better passer outside? Yes. Is he more than capable over the middle? Also, Yes.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Jake Ciely (@allinkid) April 27, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

The Eagles\u2019 offensive style\/play-calling schemed a lot to the outside and deep. When you have someone like the aforementioned Brown, plus DeVonta Smith, why wouldn\u2019t you go that route? Now, the scheming will change with Sean Mannion calling plays. He brings a Sean McVay\/Matt LaFleur style, including more pre-snap movement and layered play-action passing (we can assume, given history and reports).<\/p>\n

For Hurts, we can hope for a mix of his 2022-23 passing marks (around 3,800 yards and 22-23 touchdowns) with a bounce-back rushing line. Even somewhere between his down 2025 and the terrific 2023-24 seasons would be a win (500+ rushing yards and 10-11 rushing touchdowns). That would help Hurts return to his top-five fantasy days. Obviously, the risk is Hurts slowly adapting to the new offense and not hitting peak value until five or six games into the season. I\u2019m good with Hurts as QB6 (in my ranks), but that includes a Round 6 cost to offset some of that risk. If Hurts goes earlier, I\u2019d rather let someone else draft him and look to buy low if he gets off to a slow start.<\/p>\n

With the receiving corps, we covered how good Hurts has been over the middle on a per-attempt basis. Lemon has the makings of an Amon-Ra St. Brown, and calling him only a \u201cshort-to-intermediate, middle-of-the-field receiver\u201d is disrespectful. Lemon was third among Power Four conferences for receptions of 20+ yards (19). He can play outside, and he can go deep. Nevertheless, his opportunity is to fill the void alongside Smith.<\/p>\n

Looking at just the past two seasons, since that includes Barkley\u2019s effect on the offense, Brown averaged 132.4 targets for a 17-game pace, while Smith averaged 114.4. The volume was already there before any potential improvement from Mannion\u2019s play-calling, and even if Lemon only gets Smith\u2019s targets, he\u2019s walking into 114 targets. That gives him WR3 value with WR2 upside. Smith is obviously a locked-in WR2, and while I would never predict it, Lemon finishing ahead of Smith wouldn\u2019t shock me out of my chair.<\/p>\n

Dallas Goedert should remain his touchdown-reliant self, and if you are worried about the potential rookie struggle for Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks has flashed with the Packers and could be a WR4, though that would surprise me a little.<\/p>\n

Given that the Eagles prepared for this move before free agency and at the draft, this feels like wins all around, and we should be excited for Maye, Hurts, Brown, Doubs, Smith and Lemon in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The wait is finally over. No, I don\u2019t mean the release of \u201cSpider-Man: Brand New Day,\u201d which is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":709208,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[563],"tags":[64,63,622,596,1231,1260,85],"class_list":["post-709207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-football","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fantasy-football","tag-football","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=709207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709207\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/709208"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=709207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=709207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=709207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}