F1\u2019s most volatile silly season ever starts now. Almost no one is safe … and one star holds all the cards<\/a><\/p>\nMarco Bezzecchi claims Italian GP | 01:20<\/p>\n
THE COLD HARD FACTS<\/p>\n
McLaren simply hasn\u2019t been at Mercedes\u2019s level so far this year. It\u2019s been outclassed in qualifying and in races, with only Norris\u2019s victory in the Miami sprint breaking the streak.<\/p>\n
Norris came close to winning the Miami Grand Prix on the following day, but Andrea Kimi Antonelli had the pace to win on strategy, ensuring Mercedes\u2019s grand prix domination is total to the start of the European season.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s look at the numbers.<\/p>\n
There were six races before Europe last season, including Bahrain and Saudi Arabia but excluding Canada, which was shifted forwards in 2026.<\/p>\n
McLaren\u2019s 2025 results, first six races<\/p>\n
Qualifying: 3 poles (5o per cent)<\/p>\n
Races: 5 wins (83.3 per cent)<\/p>\n
Championship: 1st, 246 points (85.4 per cent)<\/p>\n
Drivers: Oscar Piastri (1st, 131 points), Lando Norris (2nd, 115 points)<\/p>\n
It was a mighty position for a team that started in obviously superior form, with only some sterling performances from Max Verstappen, in particular in Japan, denying McLaren a victory clean sweep.<\/p>\n
This year, however, has looked nothing like the last.<\/p>\n
McLaren\u2019s 2026 results, first five races<\/p>\n
Qualifying: 0 poles (0 per cent); best start: 3rd (2)<\/p>\n
Races: 0 wins (0 per cent); best finish: 2nd (2)<\/p>\n
Championship: 3rd, 106 points (40.8 per cent)<\/p>\n
Drivers: Lando Norris (5th, 58 points), Oscar Piastri (6th, 48 points)<\/p>\n
We can see the same disparity if we analyse McLaren\u2019s position in the one-lap speed rankings, which averages each team\u2019s fastest lap of each weekend. The data below is normalised to 80-second lap times to make different circuits comparable.<\/p>\n
2025 pace, first six races<\/p>\n
1. McLaren: +0.013 seconds<\/p>\n
2. Red Bull Racing: +0.181 seconds<\/p>\n
3. Mercedes: +0.196 seconds<\/p>\n
4. Ferrari: +0.388 seconds<\/p>\n
Whereas last year McLaren held almost 0.2 seconds in hand over the field, this year it is more than twice as far behind Mercedes coming into the European season.<\/p>\n
2026 pace, first five races<\/p>\n
1. Mercedes: fastest<\/p>\n
2. McLaren: +0.394 seconds<\/p>\n
3. Ferrari: +0.498 seconds<\/p>\n
4. Red Bull Racing: +0.738 seconds<\/p>\n
That margin would be slightly smaller, at around 0.3 seconds, if you were to discount the Australian Grand Prix, where almost every team had their worst one-lap qualifying performance relative to Mercedes owing to the newness of the regulations.<\/p>\n
But even then the conclusion is the same: McLaren\u2019s golden era has been interrupted in 2026.<\/p>\n
Insane scenes as Bezzecchi wins at home! | 03:24<\/p>\n
WHY THE READ ISN\u2019T AS GOOD<\/p>\n
But there are also some important asterisks on how we interpret the results so far.<\/p>\n
McLaren hasn\u2019t enjoyed a clean run through the start of the year \u2014 and Piastri especially hasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n
From its 10 entries across both cars, it\u2019s seen the chequered flag only six times.<\/p>\n
Three of its four missed finished were failures to start, including the painful double DNS in China that will officially delay the team\u2019s celebrations for its 1000th start until Barcelona next week, though it will commence the celebrations in Monaco this weekend.<\/p>\n
Piastri has borne the brunt of it, having started just three of the five grands prix \u2014 a meaningful deficit with cars as new an as quirky as these.<\/p>\n
Complicating matters is that three of the first five grands prix have been run to the sprint format. That\u2019s significant given the newness of the regulations and particularly given the big upgrades brought to the cars over the last two rounds, reducing each team\u2019s ability to hone its cars and more deeply understand its package.<\/p>\n
On top of that, one of the two non-sprint weekends was the Australian Grand Prix \u2014 not only an outlier but, as mentioned above, the worst race so far in terms of pace for most teams.<\/p>\n
Then it\u2019s worth considering the absence of the Bahrain Grand Prix too, which has become something of a litmus test since the Middle Eastern venue became a fixture of pre-season testing.<\/p>\n
Piastri, for example, dominated that race last year with what ended up being the fourth largest margin for the year and the biggest margin between then and September.<\/p>\n
The cancellation of that race meant we didn\u2019t get that same test this season.<\/p>\n
That all amounts to considerable uncertainty. Mercedes might be even further ahead of the pack, or McLaren could be respectably within striking distance.<\/p>\n
We have two pieces of supporting evidence for the theory that McLaren could be closer to Mercedes than it looks.<\/p>\n
It almost won the two races in which it got both cars to the finish.<\/p>\n
Piastri was in the lead of the Japanese Grand Prix and appeared to have George Russell beaten when a badly timed safety car promoted Antonelli into the lead and to victory.<\/p>\n
Norris was also leading the Miami Grand Prix before a more aggressive strategy put Antonelli decisively ahead.<\/p>\n
An analysis of the two teams\u2019 race pace suggests the Mercedes still had a handy advantage of 0.9-seconds per lap in Japan, but in Miami, where McLaren brought its big upgrade package, there was nothing to separate the two cars by pace. McLaren\u2019s messy Canada rendered race pace comparisons useless.<\/p>\n
Looking at qualifying, McLaren\u2019s Miami upgrade shaved its deficit to just 0.071 seconds. In Canada, a circuit far less favourable for McLaren \u2014 as was the case last year, where neither driver was in podium contention \u2014 it was a still respectable 0.151 seconds adrift, and that was after Mercedes brought its own big upgrade in reply.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s enough for McLaren to ask some serious questions of Mercedes\u2019s advantage.<\/p>\n
Fernandez wins sprint in historic day | 00:58<\/p>\n
McLAREN LOVES THE EUROPEAN RACES<\/p>\n
The coming months will give the team the answers it\u2019s hoping for.<\/p>\n
Though this weekend\u2019s Monaco Grand Prix at the sport\u2019s most extreme outlier of a circuit won\u2019t give us a clear picture, it heralds the beginning of a stage of the season during which McLaren and Piastri have typically excelled.<\/p>\n
Last year the team won seven of nine European races and scored 89.3 per cent of the points available.<\/p>\n
Constructors scores, 2025 European season<\/p>\n
1. McLaren: 359 points<\/p>\n
2. Ferrari: 168 points<\/p>\n
3. Red Bull Racing: 113 points<\/p>\n
4. Mercedes: 79 points<\/p>\n
Of course last year is less indicative given it had the outright fastest car until the end of the European leg of the season, when Red Bull Racing caught up.<\/p>\n
But it was true in the much more competitive 2024 season too.<\/p>\n
Constructors scores, 2024 European season<\/p>\n
1. McLaren: 286 points<\/p>\n
2. Ferrari: 220 points<\/p>\n
3. Mercedes: 200 points<\/p>\n
4. Red Bull Racing: 182 points<\/p>\n
In fact it was the European season that was decisive in the team\u2019s 14-point title victory over Ferrari and eventual 77-point advantage over Red Bull Racing.<\/p>\n
George Russell’s dummy spit dissected | 01:46<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not just McLaren that won the last two European seasons; Piastri also led the way in both years.<\/p>\n
Last year the European season was part of his long stint at the top of the standings.<\/p>\n
Drivers scores, 2025 European season<\/p>\n
1. Oscar Piastri: 181 points<\/p>\n
2. Lando Norris: 178 points<\/p>\n
3. Max Verstappen: 113 points<\/p>\n
4. Charles Leclerc: 100 points<\/p>\n
5. George Russell: 76 points<\/p>\n
His margin would have been larger had it been for a better strategy in Hungary and had it not been for the safety car infringement in Great Britain.<\/p>\n
But Piastri also led the way in his far more understated 2024 campaign, even when much of the focus was on Norris\u2019s longshot championship bid.<\/p>\n
Drivers scores, 2024 European season<\/p>\n
1. Oscar Piastri: 146 points<\/p>\n
2. Max Verstappen: 142 points<\/p>\n
3. Lando Norris: 140 points<\/p>\n
4. Lewis Hamilton: 124 points<\/p>\n
5. Charles Leclerc: 119 points<\/p>\n
Piastri in the past has put his strong European form down to the learning curve being less steep for him at many of these circuits compared to his more experienced rivals, including Norris \u2014 unlike the circuits in the Americas or Asia, he raced in Europe during his brief but championship-winning junior career.<\/p>\n
What do his prospects look like this year?<\/p>\n
He remains closely matched with Norris this year \u2014 at least so far as they can be compared given McLaren\u2019s stop-start opening months.<\/p>\n
Piastri leads grand prix qualifying 3-2 with a slender 0.046-second advantage. On average they\u2019ve both returned a qualifying result of 4.8.<\/p>\n
They\u2019ve both finished only two grands prix for a 1-1 head-to-head count. Over those two races, Piastri finished on average one place higher.<\/p>\n
So far the competitive picture between the drivers has looked as close, if not closer, than it did last season \u2014 but the sample size is small.<\/p>\n
Piastri, though, will be looking at the upcoming run of races with optimism.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s always been competitive in Monaco, and last year he dominated in Spain. He was close to Norris in Lando-favourite Austria last year and would have dominated in wet Silverstone without the safety car penalty.<\/p>\n
Piastri was peerless in Belgium \u2014 scene of his first sprint podium in 2023 \u2014 and would have been a two-time Hungary winner with a better strategy last year. He had Norris beaten in the Netherlands before the Briton\u2019s engine popped last year, and he\u2019s a double Monza podium-getter. Only the brand-new Spanish Grand Prix venue in Madrid is a question mark, as it is for all drivers.<\/p>\n
McLaren and Piastri have a mountain to climb to get back into the championship, and the probable success of that mission will be decided over the next nine rounds.<\/p>\n
Fortunately for Piastri, history tells us these races were made for him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After a heavily interrupted prelude, Formula 1 is back on its home continent to begin what is typically…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":711470,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[573],"tags":[2620,2095,12295,1724,64,63,689,937,344878,2071,2065,345891,345889,13275,512,344298,345893,344858,9239,11301,2057,90122,308857,90138,817,2755,813,816,24134,3875,2105,841,345880,345887,14211,59969,939,941,5744,345884,1737,106466,133420,174559,2557,825,5140,131292,927,938,16255,2041,2067,677,345883,345886,291473,99980,64324,345888,12022,99083,345882,2111,14444,21749,345877,337991,25598,21751,24554,14640,345878,3595,2020,85,18890,21742,345881,338003,345879,345890,345885,131072,2614,109459,12000,2062,2086,337987,345892],"class_list":["post-711469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-formula-1","tag-agence-france-presse","tag-america","tag-andrea-kimi-antonelli","tag-asia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-barcelona","tag-battery-failure","tag-belgium","tag-canada","tag-championship-analysis","tag-championship-winning-junior-career","tag-charles-leclerc","tag-china","tag-claims-italian","tag-drivers-scores","tag-dummy-spit-dissectedmotor","tag-eastern-asia","tag-eastern-europe","tag-europe","tag-european-leg","tag-european-races","tag-european-season","tag-f1","tag-florida","tag-formula-1","tag-formula1","tag-front-row-lockout","tag-george-russell","tag-getty-images-inc","tag-grand-prix","tag-grand-prix-domination","tag-grand-prix-season","tag-grands-prix","tag-home-continent","tag-hungary","tag-japan","tag-jorge-martin","tag-junior-racing","tag-lando-norris","tag-lap-times","tag-learning-curve","tag-longshot-championship","tag-madrid","tag-max-verstappen","tag-miami","tag-minas-panagiotakis","tag-monaco","tag-montreal","tag-netherlands","tag-north-america","tag-northern-america","tag-oceania","tag-one-lap-qualifying-performance","tag-one-lap-speed-rankings","tag-pandemic-season","tag-pecking-order","tag-podium-contention","tag-prospects-look","tag-province-of-barcelona","tag-province-of-madrid","tag-qualifying-performance-relative","tag-quebec","tag-question-mark","tag-race-pace","tag-race-pace-comparisons","tag-russell-ragesformula","tag-safety-car","tag-safety-car-infringement","tag-safety-car-penalty","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-schedule-tweaks","tag-southern-europe","tag-spain","tag-sports","tag-sprint-format","tag-sprint-podium","tag-sterling-performances","tag-straight-race-victory","tag-subdued-start","tag-superior-form","tag-timed-safety-car","tag-title-victory","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-upgrade-package","tag-western-asia","tag-western-europe","tag-world-championship","tag-world-championship-hopes","tag-world-championship-season"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=711469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/711469\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/711470"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=711469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=711469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=711469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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