{"id":71386,"date":"2025-08-15T23:39:29","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T23:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/71386\/"},"modified":"2025-08-15T23:39:29","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T23:39:29","slug":"following-the-money-ufc-319-betting-line-movements-tracker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/71386\/","title":{"rendered":"Following the money: UFC 319 betting line movements tracker"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC 31<\/a>9<\/a> takes place later tonight (Sat., August 16, 2025) inside United Center in Chicago, IL. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev for the UFC Middleweight title. Chimaev needed some assistance<\/a>, but he did make championship weight for his first title fight.<\/p>\n

UFC 319\u2019s co-main event is Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico<\/a>. Murphy is on a long undefeated run and he\u2019s hoping to show the latest Bellator transplant that there are levels to this game<\/a>. Rounding out the main card is Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates<\/a>, Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page<\/a> and Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura<\/a>.<\/p>\n

UFC 319\u2019s \u201cPrelims\u201d are headlined by Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk. The undercard also has Jessica Andrade vs. Lupita Godinez, Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose and Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been watching the lines (see them here<\/a>) for all the fights on UFC 319 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you\u2019ll find all the line movement between Monday and this time of writing (Friday morning).<\/p>\n

UFC 319 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker<\/p>\n

\"Dricus<\/a><\/p>\n

Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev square off before UFC 319. Ed Mulholland\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Dricus du Plessis (+193 +2.7%) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-235 -1.7%)<\/p>\n

There has not been much movement on the line for our UFC 319 main event. That\u2019s a little surprising, since this line has been out for a very long time. Given that the public have had lots of time to bet on these two fighters, the fact it hasn\u2019t changed much reflects how accurate Vegas oddsmakers were when setting this line and reflecting what the public thought about the match-up.<\/p>\n

Back in April Du Plessis opened at +185 and Chimaev opened at -225.<\/p>\n

There was a bit of movement on July 1. On that day Du Plessis\u2019 underdog line dropped to +144 and Chimaev\u2019s favorite line upped to -185. Since that, though, the lines have been steadily moving in the opposite directions with Du Plessis odds slightly lengthening and Chimaev\u2019s slightly shortening.<\/p>\n

That all makes sense to me. This match-up is giving me fits, when it comes to picking a winner. I can see scenarios where either man wins and that seems to be the case for Vegas and the betting public (and commentors on MMA Mania, who have largely said the same thing).<\/p>\n

This is another example of the odds being a little cautious around Chimaev, despite how dominating he can look inside the cage. He opened as just a -195 favorite to Robert Whittaker (largely due to him being out for a year prior to the fight). The public backed \u2018Borz\u2019, though, and transformed that to -225.<\/p>\n

Chimaev was actually an underdog when he fought Kamaru Usman. He opened at +170. Again, Vegas was probably taking into account Chimaev\u2019s long bouts of inactivity and history of illnesses and injuries. However, the public backed him again and flipped that line to -170.<\/p>\n

Du Plessis has been an interesting case when it comes to line movement in the last few years. It seems Vegas doesn\u2019t have a lot of respect for his championship bona fides. However, the betting public sure does.<\/p>\n

In his rematch with Sean Strickland, Du Plessis opened as a slight favorite at -130. But the public pushed him to -210. Against Israel Adesanya he opened at +144 and closed at +100. And in the first Strickland fight he opened at +130 and closed at -108. Du Plessis won all those fights, of course, making the public look pretty smart.<\/p>\n

However, some of Du Plessis support from the betting public might not be from smart money. It might instead be from patriotic money. There\u2019s no way to see where the money is coming from in sports betting (at least not that I\u2019m privy to), but it seems like whenever a fighter from a underrepresented country rises up they draw a lot of money. It might be the case that, no matter the match-up, South African betters are going to shorten Du Plessis\u2019 odds.<\/p>\n

Chimaev has a lot of regional support, too. But his boosters aren\u2019t likely to be gamblers, due to cultural attitudes in the Arabian Gulf and North Caucasus.<\/p>\n

In this case, a lot of South African money might be preventing Du Plessis\u2019 underdog line from ballooning, since \u2014 on paper \u2014 he seems like a decent sized underdog to the undefeated Chimaev.<\/p>\n

No matter what, though, I think we\u2019re in for a thrilling fight on Saturday. And if the public (outside of South Africa) are right, we\u2019ll be hearing Bruce Buffer say \u201cAnd New!\u201d when it\u2019s all said and done.<\/p>\n

\"Lerone<\/a><\/p>\n

Lerone Murphy and Aaron Pico face off before UFC 319. Ed Mulholland\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Lerone Murphy (+138 +13.9%) vs. Aaron Pico (-169 -13.1%)<\/p>\n

Vegas had this fight as a pick \u2018em early on, with Murphy opening at +105 and Pico opening at -125. However, it seems the public thought there was a lot of value on the longtime Bellator man. Pico has been bet into being a pretty comfortable favorite in this match-up.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s great news for me! Murphy is one of my favorite underdogs on the card (since I\u2019m not that impressed by Pico\u2019s resume).<\/p>\n

The public faded Murphy in his last fight, against Josh Emmett, taking his line from -298 to -278. Those who bet against him were wrong, though, with Murphy taking a unanimous decision. In the past the public had shown more support for him. They turned his line from -170 to -275 in his win over Dan Ige and they turned his line from -142 to -155 against Edson Barboza.<\/p>\n

Narrow odds are new for Pico. In his last fight, a revenge match with Henry Corales, he opened at -400 and closed at -430. Before that he opened at -800 and closed at -1200 against Pedro Carvalho. He won both those matches handily. Before those he opened at -260 against Jeremy Kennedy but was bet all the way down to -650. He then lost to Kennedy due to a shoulder injury, that was a horrible beat for all those Pico betters!<\/p>\n

If the Pico betters are right this time, though, he\u2019ll start his UFC tenure off with a win. And, if he does get by Murphy, he might be the first Bellator signing since Eddie Alvarez to have a shot at taking home UFC gold.<\/p>\n

\"Geoff<\/a><\/p>\n

Geoff Neal and a shirtless Carlos Prates ahead of UFC 319. Ed Mulholland\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Geoff Neal (+196 -13.2%) vs. Carlos Prates (-247 +4.2%)<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen some decent movement in this bout and it\u2019s in favor of \u2018Hands of Steel\u2019 Neal. He opened at +235, but the public think he\u2019s got a real puncher\u2019s chance against Prates, whose shine was dulled by Ian Machado Garry last time out.<\/p>\n

The public have been right on Neal lately. He lost to Machado Garry, too, and he did that with a closing line of +235 (after opening at +163). The public were also right to fade him against Shavkat Rakhmonov, turning his line from +350 to +420. And the public were right on Neal\u2019s most recent fight, taking his opening line of -170 against Rafael dos Anjos and shrinking it to -245. Neal beat RDA by TKO (injury), but he was well on his way to winning that one by more conventional means.<\/p>\n

The public have also been right on Prates lately. They faded him against Machado Garry (+110 to +145) and backed him against Neil Magny (-600 to -770) and Li Jingliang (-265 to -320).<\/p>\n

The public just seem to have a really good feel for these two Welterweight KO artists. If they are on the money again, then this could be a lot closer than Vegas assumed and Neal might even walk away with the big upset.<\/p>\n

\"Jared<\/a><\/p>\n

Jared Cannonier and Michael Page face off ahead of UFC 319. Ed Mulholland\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Jared Cannonier (+162 +4.6%) vs. Michael Page (-201 -0.2%)<\/p>\n

There\u2019s not been much movement to speak of here. The public seem fine with Vegas\u2019 estimation that Page is a slight favorite over the slightly older Cannonier. Cannonier opened at +150 for this fight and Page was -200.<\/p>\n

The public were very wrong about Cannonier in his last fight. He opened as the -130 favorite against Gregory Rodrigues. But he closed as the +210 underdog. Cannonier then outlasted and finished Robocop to maintain his relevancy in the Middleweight division. Prior to that, the public was right to fade him against Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov, though Cannonier put forth a very strong effort in both those fights.<\/p>\n

Page\u2019s line dipped down to -225 between July 2 and 26, before creeping back up to where it is now. Just like they were with Cannonier, the public were very wrong with Page\u2019s last fight, too.<\/p>\n

Page opened as the -120 favorite against Shara Magomedov and then closed at +180, before taking a very professional decision over \u2018Bullet\u2019 (or is that \u2018Pirate\u2019?). The reverse was true when Page fought Ian Machado Garry. Vegas had him as the -155 favorite, but he closed as the +170 underdog before losing a dull decision.<\/p>\n

Clearly the public are still trying to figure out MVP. Good luck, though, he\u2019s made a career on being unpredictable.<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a><\/p>\n

Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura share a laugh ahead of UFC 319. Ed Mulholland\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Tim Elliott (+248 +6.6%) vs. Kai Asakura (-323 +0.6%)<\/p>\n

Elliott opened at +225. On July 26 his line jumped to +245. Then, on August 11, it sank down to +228 before creeping back up to where it is now. The public have been off on Elliott fights. In his last contest, back in 2023, Elliott opened at -180 against Sumudaerji. That line closed at -140 and then Elliott went out and scored the submission win. Strangely, the public backed him when he was a big underdog against Mohammad Mokaev. He opened at +400 there, but closed at +360. He would then lose a decision.<\/p>\n

Asakura opened at +185 in his debut fight against UFC Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja. That remains one of the more odd lines I\u2019ve seen lately. The public bet him out to +200. But, with hindsight being 20-20, Asakura performed in that fight like he was a +500 underdog.<\/p>\n

UFC 319 Late \u2018Prelims\u2019 Line Movement<\/p>\n

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:<\/p>\n

USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.UK: GamCare – Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada\u2019s various provinces and territories.Australia\/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.\"Michal<\/a><\/p>\n

Michal Oleksiejczuk is looking to build on recent success at UFC 319. Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Gerald Meerschaert (+186 +8%) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-233 -1.1%)<\/p>\n

Olekseijczuk opened at -225 and came all the way in to -300 on June 28. Meerschaert opened at +163 and that jumped to +215 on July 26. It then shortened to +181 on August 13 before creeping up to where it is now. I think this shows a lot of uncertainty on the part of the public, which is fair since both these guys feel just as capable of scoring a big finish or being ended by one.<\/p>\n

In his last fight, a win against Sedriques Dumas, Oleksiejczuk opened at -175 and closed at -180. He opened at +220 and closed at +265 in his loss to Shara Magomedov.<\/p>\n

The public incorrectly backed Meerschaert in his last fight, changing his opening line of +162 against Brad Tavares to +143.<\/p>\n

\"Lupita<\/a><\/p>\n

Lupita Godinez\u2019s wrestling might make the difference in her fight at UFC 319. Louis Grasse\/PxImages\/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Jessica Andrade (+121 -35.6%) vs. Lupita Godinez (-149 +18.4%)<\/p>\n

Andrade\u2019s line is the biggest mover at UFC 319. She opened at +200, but her veteran savy and name recognition have likely combined to draw a lot of bets. The public fading Godinez has meant her opening line of -275 has shrunk to -149.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a shame for me, since I feel this is a very good match-up for Godinez.<\/p>\n

The public were right to fade Andrade in her last two fights. She opened at +200 and closed at +250 against Jasmine Jasudavicius. She opened at +124 and closed at +240 for Natalia Silva. So I\u2019m a little curious where all this love for Andrade is coming from for this fight.<\/p>\n

The public were right with Godinez lately. She went from -188 to -225 before she beat Julia Polastri and she went from -148 to +122 before she lost to Mackenzie Dern.<\/p>\n

\"Alexander<\/a><\/p>\n

Alexander Hernandez is looking for his third straight win at UFC 319. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Chase Hooper (-318 -3.5%) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+245 +10.1%)<\/p>\n

There\u2019s been a decent amount of money coming in against Hernandez for this fight. That makes sense, given the tear that Hooper has been on lately (even if Hernandez himself is on a two fight winning streak).<\/p>\n

Hooper opened at -278 for this fight. Hernandez was +210.<\/p>\n

These are shorter odds than Hooper has been used to lately. He was -450 to open against Jim Miller and -700 to open against Clay Guida. His line closed at -770 and -1000 respectively for those fights, which he won pretty comfortbly.<\/p>\n

Hernandez was incorrectly faded by the public in both his fights with Kurt Holobaugh and Austin Hubbard. If they are wrong again this would be one of the bigger upsets possible on the card.<\/p>\n

\"Drakkar<\/a><\/p>\n

Drakkar Klose will also hope his wrestling makes a difference at UFC 319. Alexandre Loureiro\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Edson Barbosa (-142 +2.2%) vs. Drakkar Klose (+116 +2.8%)<\/p>\n

Vegas and the public are mostly in agreement here that an aging Barboza is still slightly better than Klose (who is no spring chicken himself).<\/p>\n

Barboza was faded by the public in his last three fights, against Lerone Murphy, Sodiq Yussuf and Billy Qurantillo. He only lost to Murphy, in a Fight of the Night effort.<\/p>\n

Klose\u2019s line went up to +135 on August 11 before coming back down. He was faded, hard, against Joel Alvarez. He went from +200 to +425 before getting shellacked by one of the more exciting fighters at Lightweight.<\/p>\n

UFC 319 Early \u2018Prelims\u2019 Line Movement<\/p>\n

\"Nursulton<\/a><\/p>\n

Nursulton Ruziboev gets a big test at UFC 319. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Nursulton Ruziboev (+137 -16%) vs. Bryan Battle (-169 +12%)<\/p>\n

NOTE: After completing this article, news came out that this fight was called off (full details here<\/a>)<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen some big movement on this fight. Vegas initially had this as +175 for Ruzioboev and -250 for Battle. However, as you can see, the public thinks this is a much closer fight than that. Some of that public scrutiny for Battle might be due to him moving up in weight class for this fight (and Ruziboev already being very big for Middleweight). I\u2019d preach some caution there, though. Battle has a longer reach than Ruziboev and he\u2019s missed weight a bunch at Welterweight, so he\u2019s probably a pretty natural Middleweight.<\/p>\n

The public have been right on Battle lately, backing him to beat both Randy Brown and Kevin Jousset.<\/p>\n

Ruziboev has been faded by the public since he lost a main event fight to Joaquin Buckley, as a Welterweight. He beat both Dustin Stoltzfus and Eric McConcio, but both times his favorite line lengthened a little during fight week. To get faded against McConico was a little strange, given that McConico was a short notice opponent coming right off the regional scene.<\/p>\n

\"Karine<\/a><\/p>\n

Karine Silva will look to get back to winning ways at UFC 319. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Karine Silva (-216 -10.5%) vs. Dione Barbosa (+173 +19.4%)<\/p>\n

This is the opposite story of the Ruziboev vs. Battle line. Vegas thought Silva vs. Barbosa was a pretty close match-up, with Silva opening at -163 and Barbosa (a short notice replacement for JJ Aldrich) opening at +120. However, as you can see, the public are all in on Silva here. This has pushed Barbosa out to being a more moderate sized underdog.<\/p>\n

The public were wrong to back Silva in her last fight. She opened at -230 against Viviane Araujo and closed at -275 before essentially giving up in the third round and handing Araujo the win. Barbosa got a ton of support last time out. She opened at -450 against Diana Belbita and closed at -1000. She would then go on to submit Belbita. The public were right to fade her, though, when she came in on short notice to fight Miranda Maverick.<\/p>\n

\"Alibi<\/a><\/p>\n

Alibi Idiris will represent Kazakhstan at UFC 319. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Alibi Idiris (-474 -6.9%) vs. Jospeh Morales (+348 +21.9%)<\/p>\n

This line has only been out for a short amount of time, since this is a TUF finale fight. Despite that, though, the public are putting big money down on Idiris. I haven\u2019t watched TUF since Tony Ferguson called Chris Leben a \u2018fatherless bastard\u2019, so I\u2019m no expert on this match-up. It seems Morales got through to the final through a bad judging decision. I guess he\u2019s going to pay for that on Saturday.<\/p>\n

\"Baysangur<\/a><\/p>\n

Baysangur Susurkaev is a very late addition to UFC 319. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Baysangur Susurkaev (-913 -0.8%) vs. Eric Nolan (+576 +0.1%)<\/p>\n

This line is also very new. This fight was added to UFC 319 like yesterday. Vegas seem to think Susurkaev, who was on Contender Series a few days ago, is going to walk through Nolan. Who am I to disagree?<\/p>\n

\"Jessica<\/a><\/p>\n

Jessica Andrade has the biggest line movement at UFC 319. Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

UFC 319 Biggest Line Movements<\/p>\n

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 318:<\/p>\n

Jessica Andrade: From +200 underdog to +121 underdog (-35.7%) (C)Joseph Morales: From +250 underdog to a +348 underdog (+21.9%) (A)Dione Barbosa: From +120 underdog to a +173 underdog (+19.4%) (A)Lupita Godinez: From -275 favorite to a -149 favorite (+18.4) (F)Nursulton Ruziboev: From +175 underdog to a +137 underdog (C)<\/p>\n

Since I\u2019ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.<\/p>\n

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 5-38.<\/p>\n

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 10-10.<\/p>\n

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 2-6.<\/p>\n

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-4.<\/p>\n

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-3.<\/p>\n

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 1-0.<\/p>\n

\"Lerone<\/a><\/p>\n

Lerone Murphy is my favorite underdog at UFC 319. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

UFC 319 Best Underdogs Bets<\/p>\n

There are actually a few underdogs I like on this card. Lerone Murphy is my favorite, since I think he\u2019s a high calibre UFC Featherweight and Aaron Pico is yet to show he\u2019s not just a big fish in a small pond. I also like Jared Cannonier, mostly because he\u2019s made me look silly in the past. I think his grinding, in your face, game might give Page some problems. And I also think Dricus du Plessis is worth a punt, too. He\u2019s never not shown up in the Octagon. I don\u2019t think you can totally rule him out of any fight, even against an undefeated finishing machine.<\/p>\n

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

0<\/p>\n

MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE CAR CRASH!<\/a> Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., Aug. 16, 2025, with a blockbuster title fight set to headline UFC 319 from inside United Center in Chicago, Illinois. In UFC 319\u2019s PPV main event, Middleweight champion, Dricus du Plessis, defends his title against undefeated No. 3<\/a>-ranked contender, Khamzat Chimaev, in a high-stakes, five-round battle of unbeaten UFC records. UFC 319\u2019s PPV co-main event features a Featherweight showdown between Lerone Murphy and promotional newcomer<\/a>, Aaron Pico, a high-profile free-agent signing stepping in on short notice. UFC 319 will also showcase a Welterweight clash between Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates<\/a>, a Middleweight bout pitting Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page, a Flyweight matchup featuring Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura, and much more! UFC 319\u2019s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (\u201cEarly Prelims\u201d), 8 p.m. ET (\u201cPrelims\u201d undercard), and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card)<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

Remember that MMAmania.com<\/a> will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 319 fight card<\/a>, starting with the ESPN\/ESPN+<\/a> \u201cPrelims\u201d matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+<\/a>).<\/p>\n

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 319: \u201cdu Plessis vs. Khamzat\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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