{"id":713906,"date":"2026-06-04T03:18:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T03:18:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/713906\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T03:18:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T03:18:10","slug":"underdog-victories-at-the-world-cup-what-were-the-biggest-and-best-upsets-world-cup-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/713906\/","title":{"rendered":"Underdog victories at the World Cup: what were the biggest and best upsets? | World Cup 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

This year, the biggest ever World Cup will feature 48 teams, an increase from 32, opening up the tournament to even more upsets, shocks and surprises. The vagaries of the World Cup draw have given rise to classic underdog victories over the years, from an amateur USA team\u2019s shock defeat of the then-favourites England<\/a> in 1950 onwards. But what does the data tell us about upsets in football\u2019s modern era?<\/p>\n

Starting from the launch of the Fifa men\u2019s world ranking system in 1993, we have analysed each World Cup<\/a> match in which an underdog beat a higher-ranked team, along with the ranking disparity between the teams: the bigger the gap, the higher the \u201cupset score\u201d, and the larger the circle in the graphics below. Upsets are marked in red, while matches decided on penalties are represented with a white border.<\/p>\n

USA 1994: regional rivalries and Bulgarian brilliance<\/p>\n

This World Cup was characterised by a consistent stream of upsets, particularly in the group stages, with a couple of surprise regional rivalries including Belgium (Fifa ranking 27) triumphing over the Netherlands (2) and Saudi Arabia (34), in their World Cup debut, seeing off Morocco (28).<\/p>\n

The first World Cup after the dissolution of the USSR featured the first appearance by a unified German team and arguably the tournament\u2019s most iconic underdog moment, when a header by Yordan Letchkov<\/a> secured Bulgaria\u2019s (29) victory over top-ranked Germany (1) in the quarter-finals. Bulgaria enjoyed a strong competition overall, including beating Argentina (8) in the group stages and a surprise round of 16 win against Mexico (16) in a penalty shootout.<\/p>\n

Bulgaria\u2019s Yordan Letchkov beats Germany\u2019s Thomas Hassler to head in the winner in New Jersey. Photograph: Simon Bruty\/AllsportFrance 1998: upsets all the way<\/p>\n

This was one of the few recent World Cups to culminate in an underdog victory, as the hosts, France (17), thrilled a Stade de France packed with home fans when they beat the top team, <\/a>Brazil<\/a> (1), 3-0. The team\u2019s historic victory was secured with two spectacular headers from Zinedine Zidane.<\/p>\n

The biggest upset, however, was from Nigeria (74), who beat Spain (15) 3-2 in the group stages, as well as conquering Bulgaria (35) 1-0. There were also unpredictable quarter-finals, as Croatia (19) knocked Germany (2) out of the tournament, while the Netherlands (25) saw off Argentina (6).<\/p>\n

Brazil\u2019s forward Ronaldo after the defeat by France in the World Cup final at Saint-Denis, France, 12 July 1998. Photograph: Antonio Scorza\/AFP\/Getty ImagesSouth Korea and Japan 2002: hosts beat the heat; France crash out<\/p>\n

The hosts, South Korea (40), were the tournament\u2019s champion underdogs, making it all the way to the semi-final via victories over Poland (38), Portugal (5), Italy (6) and Spain (8). But perhaps the most significant upset came in the opening game when the World Cup first-timers Senegal (32) took on the reigning champions, France (3). Senegal scored half an hour in<\/a>, then defended successfully against a much older French team \u2013 including stars Zidane, Marcel Desailly and Fabien Barthez \u2013 which struggled in Seoul\u2019s heat and humidity. At the final whistle, crowds back home in Dakar erupted in shock and joy as the former colony triumphed over the one-time imperial power.<\/p>\n

Senegal\u2019s Papa Bouba Diop celebrates his goal against France in Seoul. Photograph: Dylan Martinez\/ReutersGermany 2006: the most unpredictable modern World Cup?<\/p>\n

Germany 2006 wasn\u2019t memorable only for Zidane\u2019s notorious head-butt<\/a> on Marco Materazzi in the final between France (8) and Italy (13). The numbers show it was the most surprising World Cup in recent history, with 21 upsets throughout the tournament, and five in its later stages \u2013 including Ukraine\u2019s (45) round-of-16 victory over Switzerland (35) at their first World Cup. Other countries making their debut included Angola (57), Ghana (48), C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire (32), Trinidad and Tobago (47) and Togo (61), making this an underdog-heavy tournament.<\/p>\n

Screengrabs showing Zinedine Zidane\u2019s head-butt on Marco Materazzi during the 2006 World Cup final. Photograph: A9999 DB WDR\/EPASouth Africa 2010: a huge upset, but underdogs struggle<\/p>\n

Despite defeating France (9) with the biggest \u201cupset score\u201d of our analysis, South Africa (83) became the first host nation in World Cup history to be eliminated at the group stage. Other notable underdog victories included South Korea\u2019s (47) defeat of Greece (13), and Slovakia\u2019s (34) defeat of Italy (5), with France and Italy both failing to progress to the knockout stage. In their first appearance, the underdogs North Korea (103) lost all three of their group matches and received a public mauling<\/a> for \u201cbetraying\u201d the communist nation\u2019s ideological struggle.<\/p>\n

The South Africa team celebrate after Siphiwe Tshabalala\u2019s opening goal against Mexico in Johannesburg. Photograph: Martin Meissner\/APBrazil 2014: Costa Rica v champions in the \u2018group of death\u2019<\/p>\n

The 2014 World Cup was notable for the champions, Spain (1), crashing out at the group stage, along with the hosts, Brazil (3), losing 7-1 to Germany (2) in the semi-finals. The tournament\u2019s \u201cgroup of death\u201d was Group D: the first ever to sport three former world champions \u2013 England (10), Italy (9) and Uruguay (7) \u2013 along with Costa Rica (28). But the underdogs more than proved their mettle<\/a>, beating Italy 1-0 via a Bryan Ruiz header before going on to draw with England and progress to the knockout stage, while Italy and England were eliminated.<\/p>\n

Costa Rica\u2019s Bryan Ruiz scores against Italy in Recife. Photograph: Ruben Sprich\/ReutersRussia 2018: controversy and semi-final surprises<\/p>\n

This World Cup was a wild ride, starting with controversy around the choice of host, continuing as reports of abuse of migrant labourers building stadiums emerged, and culminating in a tournament full of unpredictability and upsets. As in many tournaments, Russia (70) enjoyed a host country boost, beating <\/a>Spain<\/a> (10) in the round of 16 after triumphing against Saudi Arabia (67) and Egypt (45) in the group stages. There were surprises in the semi-finals too, as Croatia (20) memorably knocked out England\u2019s (12) talented but inexperienced team, and France (7) deprived Belgium (3) and its \u201cgolden generation\u201d a chance of a major trophy.<\/p>\n

Russia celebrate winning a penalty shootout against Spain in Moscow. Photograph: Maxim Shemetov\/ReutersQatar 2022: Morocco work magic at a winter World Cup<\/p>\n

The first World Cup held in the Middle East was shifted to the winter months to avoid Qatar\u2019s intense summer heat. Amid disruption to many domestic leagues and controversies over the treatment of migrant workers and minorities, there was one undisputed star underdog story: the rise of Morocco (22). The first African and first Arab team to reach the semi-finals beat Belgium (2), Canada (41) and Portugal (9) along the way, but perhaps their most thrilling victory<\/a> was against Spain (7) in the round of 16. After a goalless draw the game went to penalties, Moroccoprevailing 3-0 in the shootout and fans packing the stadium went wild as their side reached the last eight for the first time.<\/p>\n

Achraf Hakimi, who scored the winning penalty for Morocco, greets his mother after the match against Spain in Doha. Photograph: Tom Jenkins\/The GuardianWill underdogs triumph at Canada-Mexico-USA 2026?<\/p>\n

This year, the expanded format means a hectic match schedule is spread across 16 cities in three countries and four time zones, with some teams at risk of dangerous heat stress<\/a> while others play in air-conditioned stadiums. Throw in a volatile political backdrop and the participation of teams that would usually struggle to be granted US visas, and this could be the most unpredictable World Cup yet.<\/p>\n

Four countries \u2013 Cape Verde (69), Cura\u00e7ao (82), Jordan (63) and Uzbekistan (50) \u2013 are making their World Cup debuts, and potential upsets include:<\/p>\n

Haiti (83) v Scotland (43) \u2013 13 June, Croup C: Haiti will be looking to add their name to a list including Peru, Iran and Costa Rica to send shivers down the spines of the Tartan Army. Haiti beat New Zealand 4-0 in their latest warm-up match, and present a tricky opener for a Scottish team that has lost Billy Gilmour<\/a> and will be forced to come out and attack, with both sides knowing Morocco and Brazil await them next.<\/p>\n

New Zealand (85) v Iran (21) \u2013 15 June, Group G: After losing every match in their first World Cup and drawing every game in their second, New Zealand\u2019s opener offers a golden chance for a historic first win. They face an Iran team plagued by uncertainty \u2013 facing potential entry issues due to the US conflict with Tehran, alongside possible fan and player protests. The All Whites may never get a better shot at an upset.<\/p>\n

Cape Verde (69) v Uruguay (17) \u2013 21 June, Group H: Uruguay frequently reach the later stages of the tournament, but have had bad results under their polarising coach, Marcelo Bielsa<\/a>. Cape Verde, making their World Cup debut, came through tough African qualifiers and are defensively strong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This year, the biggest ever World Cup will feature 48 teams, an increase from 32, opening up the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":713907,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[563],"tags":[64,63,596,85],"class_list":["post-713906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-football","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-football","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=713906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/713906\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/713907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=713906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=713906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=713906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}