There was optimism across Australian alpine resorts this week as their social media channels filled with footage of snow flurries that arrived just in time for the opening of the ski season this weekend.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe couldn\u2019t be more excited,\u201d said the Instagram account of Perisher<\/a>, the southern hemisphere\u2019s biggest ski resort in Kosciuszko national park in New South Wales, as hands swept the fresh snow from outdoor tables.<\/p>\n While the spectacular wintry scenes will bring enthusiasm, the outlook for the rest of the winter \u2013 and the coming decades \u2013 is not quite so positive.<\/p>\n With an El Ni\u00f1o looking likely to form in the coming weeks<\/a>, the odds are stacked in favour of drier and warmer conditions though winter and spring.<\/p>\n \u201cOverall with that dry and warm outlook and the El Ni\u00f1o, it does not favour good deep snow cover for skiers,\u201d said Jonathan How, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.<\/p>\n \u201cIt tips the odds against a good season because of the less rainfall and high temperatures. That\u2019s a bad combination.\u201d<\/p>\n Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n The Bureau of Meteorology\u2019s long-range forecast for the winter months suggests below average snowfall for Australia\u2019s alpine regions (with the possible exception of Mount Mawson in Tasmania) while both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above average.<\/p>\n \u201cBut these long-range forecasts can\u2019t predict the day-to-day weather systems. We will still get those low pressure systems and we will see winter systems move through,\u201d How said.<\/p>\n Snow was falling at resorts this week ahead of Saturday\u2019s opening day, but How said forecasts for next week were suggesting daytime temperatures of up to 10C.<\/p>\n A map showing areas in brown that are expected to get below average precipitation between June and August 2026. Illustration: Bureau of Meteorology<\/p>\n \u201cNext week we start to see temperatures rising again. That means the snow might not stick around very long,\u201d How said.<\/p>\n He said for skiers, a strategy of being ready to respond to winter storms when they come \u201cis definitely a good idea\u201d.<\/p>\n \u2018Loading the dice\u2019<\/p>\n For decades, climate scientists have been predicting that Australia\u2019s alpine areas will get warmer, making the future challenging for ski resorts. Observations are already showing that snow depths have been falling.<\/p>\n Two years ago, scientists at the Australian National University and University of Innsbruck used a new climate model \u2013 SkiSim2 \u2013 to see what greenhouse gas emissions could do to 11 of Australia\u2019s main ski resorts. As well as tracking temperatures, the model also accounts for snowmaking.<\/p>\n