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<\/p>\n
Because, really, the top four look pretty set. Fremantle and Sydney look like world-beaters, while Hawthorn is an obvious third \u2013 and potentially better than that when peaking.<\/p>\n
Geelong has looked a touch vulnerable in the past two weeks, but until properly proven otherwise, the Cats are the fourth-best side after the aforementioned three. <\/p>\n
Then, there are eight clubs seemingly battling for spots five through 10 on the ladder. <\/p>\n
Carlton could well develop into a true finals contender, but for now, we\u2019ll leave the Blues to the side. <\/p>\n
That leaves Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, Collingwood and St Kilda jumbled in together, with just three wins separating the Demons and Saints.<\/p>\n
‘Trouble’: Bevo coy on Butters catch up | 03:04<\/p>\n
And you wouldn\u2019t want to be one of the two teams finishing in 11th and 12th. This is the AFL \u2018no man\u2019s land\u2019, for not only would you miss the wildcard round, you\u2019d also be outside the bottom six \u2014 which is grouped into an \u2018easier\u2019 fixture the next year \u2014 and your first draft pick would land in the middle of the first round due to inevitably early bids.<\/p>\n
It comes as the sixth-placed Dogs host the eighth-placed Crows to kick off Round 14 on Thursday night \u2013 the clubs meeting for the second time this season after their nailbiting March bout that saw Luke Beveridge\u2019s side emerge six-point victors. <\/p>\n
And while wins barely set these eight clubs apart, it\u2019s their game styles that tell the story as we tick towards the business end of the season. <\/p>\n
Specifically, Champion Data\u2019s \u2018Core Four\u2019 assessment \u2013 With Footy, Without Footy, Clearance and Post Clearance \u2013 is one of the most reliable indicators. <\/p>\n
So, with 10 weeks remaining in the home-and-away season, this is where all eight clubs sit \u2013 which are best-placed, which shape as outcasts, and what their remaining fixtures say about their chances.<\/p>\n
AFL 360: Frampton cleared by the MRO | 02:21<\/p>\n
5th. MELBOURNE (8-5, 102.3%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 8th<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 13th<\/p>\n
Clearance: 10th<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 11th<\/p>\n
\ufeff\ufeffTotal: 11th<\/p>\n
The Demons have a middling profile, not posing a standout strength while sitting in the bottom six in Champion Data\u2019s \u2018without the footy\u2019 metrics. It might come as something of a surprise, seeing as the Dees are a high-octane outfit that\u2019s been among the better forward-half scoring teams in the competition. They rank fifth in the league for scoring and fifth for time spent in their forward half. Where they have room for improvement, though, is their capitalisation from inside-50 entries \u2013 ranking fifth-last for scores-per-entry \u2013 and their defence, ranking fifth-last for points against. They\u2019re also a concerning 16th for defending ball movement, and 12th for opposition points from turnover. It\u2019s a watch, seeing as the Demons also have one of the tougher runs home, set to clash with the likes of Adelaide (away), Hawthorn again, Geelong, Gold Coast (away), Fremantle, and the Bulldogs again. <\/p>\n
The Dees got over the top of Collingwood on King\u2019s Birthday. (Photo by James Wiltshire\/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
6th. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-5, 94.6%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 13th<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 15th<\/p>\n
Clearance: 11th<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 14th<\/p>\n
Total: 15th<\/p>\n
In an eyebrow-raiser, the Bulldogs have the worst overall profile of this grouping despite sitting inside the top six entering Round 14. The Dogs currently rank as the sixth-best side for ball movement (defensive-50-to-inside-50), but outside of that, they rank outside the top 10 in the competition for most pertinent offensive metrics, including points from turnover (14th), time in their forward half (13th), and chain-to-score rate (13th). Their post-clearance ranking suggests there are structural improvements to be made. Bear in mind, though, that Luke Beveridge\u2019s men have had one of the toughest fixtures to this point in the season, and have copped costly injury blows along the way. And that\u2019s a load that\u2019ll begin to alleviate, fortunately, with the Dogs \u2013 who have also regained key names \u2013 facing a far softer stretch of opponents in the run home, including remaining match-ups with St Kilda before the bye, West Coast, Richmond, North Melbourne and Carlton. <\/p>\n
The sixth-placed Dogs are getting some key names back into the fold as they prepare their finals tilt. (Photo by James Wiltshire\/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
7th. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-5, 112.2%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 4th<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 7th<\/p>\n
Clearance: 9th<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 7th<\/p>\n
Total: 5th<\/p>\n
Since the start of the season, the Suns have boasted a profile that\u2019s conducive to winning in September, but for one reason or another, they haven\u2019t been able to put it all together. Gold Coast never really threatened Brisbane last Saturday, and that was after it surrendered a massive lead to lose to North Melbourne. The reason not to worry is the fact that their overall profile ranks fifth, per Champion Data, with only the Giants rated higher at this point in the year. The reason to worry? Gold Coast has one of, if not the, toughest remaining fixtures. Damien Hardwick\u2019s side plays Geelong, Hawthorn and Fremantle in its next three. It also cops Adelaide on the road, the Bulldogs, the Giants away, and Brisbane again. The Suns haven\u2019t beaten a contender since toppling Geelong in Opening Round. If they can\u2019t start challenging the best, their promising premiership trajectory will certainly stall. <\/p>\n
8th. ADELAIDE CROWS (7-5, 107.4%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 13th<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 3rd<\/p>\n
Clearance: 7th<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 8th<\/p>\n
Total: 7th<\/p>\n
The Crows\u2019 performance when in possession has been a persistent question mark, and they\u2019re tied with the Bulldogs as the worst \u2018with the footy\u2019 of this group of eight. Across the competition, they rank second-worst for defensive-50-to-score, third-worst for ball movement, and fourth-worst for chain-to-score. It\u2019s a part of Adelaide\u2019s game that has seen little improvement in recent months, and it could be what ends up coming back to haunt Matthew Nicks\u2019 side come the business end of the year. The reason for optimism, though, is the fact the Crows have the best \u2018without the footy\u2019 ranking of these eight clubs, sitting third in the competition. They rank fourth for points against, and it\u2019s a backline that\u2019ll soon regain Mark Keane, who made the All-Australian squad last year. Another reason for optimism? The Crows have one of the easiest remaining fixtures, getting Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon and Richmond again in their run home, along with crucial home match-ups with Melbourne, Gold Coast, Collingwood and GWS. They\u2019re a big top-six chance if they can maintain the form they displayed against Geelong. <\/p>\n
The Crows claimed a massive scalp of Geelong last Thursday to gain some momentum. (Photo by James Elsby\/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
9th. BRISBANE LIONS (7-6, 106.2%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 2nd<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 14th<\/p>\n
Clearance: 6th<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 13th<\/p>\n
Total: 10th<\/p>\n
Defence \u2013 and in particular reaction time in defensive transition \u2013 has been the Lions\u2019 biggest issue in what\u2019s been a turbulent premiership defence. Notably, they have the second-worst \u2018without the footy\u2019 rating of this group; better than only the Bulldogs, while their overall profile sits a middling 10th in the competition. Chris Fagan\u2019s side ranks a lowly 13th for points against, while they\u2019re a worrying 17th in the AFL for defending ball movement. With the footy, though, the Lions remain damaging, as we saw in last Saturday\u2019s Q-Clash. It\u2019s the second-best profile in the competition, and the best of this group of eight, with the Lions still a top-three team for scoring, generating inside-50s, and ball movement. And positively, as Brisbane jostles for positioning inside the top 10, it has one of the more favourable runs home in terms of fixturing. After its clash with Richmond in Tasmania this weekend, Brisbane has the bye before confronting the likes of Essendon, West Coast, Port Adelaide and Carlton in the second half of the year. That said, the Lions also cop Sydney again, Geelong again, and Hawthorn. But after a highly concerning three-game losing skid, headlined by a historic loss to the Giants, Fagan\u2019s mob simply can\u2019t be counted out. <\/p>\n
10th. GWS GIANTS (6-6, 103.2%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 6th<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 8th<\/p>\n
Clearance: 8th<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 2nd<\/p>\n
Total: 4th<\/p>\n
The Giants only sit 10th as we embark on Round 14, but their profile suggests they should be higher on the ladder. Adam Kingsley has his side raring from an offensive perspective \u2013 ranking second for ball movement \u2013 while his defence is holding up with Sam Taylor back in the side. GWS has the fourth-best overall profile in the competition, and it ranks as the best among these eight teams; a decent indicator of its trajectory as we tick into the business end of the season. A tough Marvel Stadium clash with St Kilda shapes as a curveball this weekend, but the Giants should be winning regularly for the rest of the campaign, set to benefit from upcoming match-ups with Carlton (home), Essendon, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast (at home) and West Coast. We\u2019d be surprised if they\u2019re not playing finals. <\/p>\n
Garry & Razor go at it over Mckay call | 01:35<\/p>\n
11th. COLLINGWOOD (5-7-1, 99.2%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 11th<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 9th<\/p>\n
Clearance: 14th<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 16th<\/p>\n
Total: 12th<\/p>\n
Scoring and generating shots at goal have been key Collingwood issues this year, along with a glaring shortcoming in the centre square. The Magpies rank 13th for scoring and 15th for shots at goal, which has held them back, despite actually rating decently well for points from turnover (7th) and ball movement (7th). It doesn\u2019t look like a bad profile on paper, but overall, it rates as the second-worst among these eight teams; better only than the Bulldogs. It\u2019s unsurprising that Collingwood is chasing Lachie Neale as a free agent, considering it ranks dead-last for clearances and fifth-last for stoppage-scoring differential. The Pies have a middle-of-the-pack run home in terms of opponents \u2013 they\u2019ve got Port Adelaide, Richmond and North Melbourne among their next four, but then have to deal with the likes of Adelaide (away), Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane in the back end. It\u2019s going to be a very intriguing end to the year for Craig McRae\u2019s side, which looks every chance of being right on the edge of the wildcard spots come the end of the regular season. <\/p>\n
12th. ST KILDA (5-8, 101.9%)<\/p>\n
With Footy: 9th<\/p>\n
Without Footy: 10th<\/p>\n
Clearance: 3rd<\/p>\n
Post Clearance: 10th<\/p>\n
Total: 8th<\/p>\n
The Saints aren\u2019t spectacular in any one area, but their overall profile on balance suggests they\u2019re doing a few things right \u2013 and, really, they should be 6-7, not 5-8, after last Sunday. They\u2019re third at clearance, but while they rate as above average in scoring from stoppage, they still rank 10th in the metric. Of course, capitalising on their superior centre-square work would be easier with their forward spearhead healthy, but the Saints just have to keep making do in the meantime. Ross Lyon\u2019s sides have historically been consistently defensively stout, but while St Kilda is ninth for points against, it\u2019s 15th for opposition points from turnover. However, the Saints are on the favourable side as it pertains to their remaining opponents, with upcoming winnable fixtures against Essendon, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond, and a home clash with Gold Coast to round out their home-and-away campaign. If they can capitalise there and win a few more close ones, the Saints should make some top-10 noise ahead of September. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Eight into six doesn\u2019t go. For the eight sides we believe are challenging for the six finals spots…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":728874,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[1142,9126,638,64,63,689,55,639,16716,3237,36265,68968,352954,3244,352953,10133,10143,352945,28963,15682,11238,352942,352956,39208,54322,13038,352938,352936,352941,352398,10145,2105,2485,9130,1139,38443,4739,3231,33693,45746,146691,25875,663,11234,343123,16712,7804,352950,352944,677,45685,352946,6082,352948,352949,352958,701,14444,352940,60969,131277,352951,765,352947,12144,352943,352957,1124,85,1122,352937,352959,2801,352955,352952,19086,352939,350268,660,698,23510],"class_list":["post-728873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-adam-kingsley","tag-adelaide-crows","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-ball-movement","tag-brisbane-lions","tag-business-end","tag-chain-to-score-rate","tag-champion-index","tag-chris-fagan","tag-clubs-meeting","tag-collingwood-magpies","tag-craig-mcrae","tag-crucial-home-match-ups","tag-defending-ball-movement","tag-defensive-transition","tag-draft-pick","tag-eight-club-mini-finals","tag-favourable-runs-home","tag-finals-contender","tag-finals-spots","tag-finish-line","tag-fourth-best-side","tag-frantic-eight-club-mini","tag-game-styles","tag-garry-amp-razor","tag-garry-lyon","tag-getty-images-inc","tag-gold-coast","tag-gold-coast-suns","tag-greater-western-sydney-giants","tag-home-clash","tag-injury-blows","tag-jack-jovanovski","tag-james-wiltshire","tag-josh-rachele","tag-key-names","tag-lachie-neale","tag-luke-beveridge","tag-mark-keane","tag-match-press-conference","tag-matthew-nicks","tag-melbourne-demons","tag-middle-of-the-pack-run-home","tag-mini-finals-race","tag-oceania","tag-opposition-points","tag-pertinent-offensive-metrics","tag-port-adelaide","tag-post-clearance-ranking","tag-profile-ranks","tag-promising-premiership-trajectory","tag-queensland","tag-question-mark","tag-ranking-fifth-last","tag-ray-chamberlain","tag-reaction-time","tag-remaining-fixtures","tag-run-home","tag-runs-home","tag-sam-taylor","tag-scoring-teams","tag-sixth-best-side","tag-south-australia","tag-sports","tag-st-kilda","tag-standout-strength","tag-superior-centre-square-work","tag-tasmania","tag-teams-finishing","tag-three-game-losing-skid","tag-toby-greene","tag-turbulent-premiership-defence","tag-urges-critics","tag-victoria","tag-western-bulldogs","tag-zak-butters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=728873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728873\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/728874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=728873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=728873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=728873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}