There are players the fantasy market irrationally hates. Their ADPs make little sense, but the consensus means they keep being drafted low, reason be damned. It\u2019s groupthink at this point. If you want the room\u2019s approval with the murmur of \u201cgood pick,\u201d you can\u2019t take these players. You\u2019ll only get raised eyebrows \u2014 and higher win probability in your league.<\/p>\n
Fade the conventional wisdom, pay the market price and profit. These opportunities exist every year, just waiting to be capitalized on. I\u2019ll note the positional ranking according to Fantasy Pros<\/a> as well as my positional rankings<\/a>. (I eschew overall ranks since the number of receivers you are allowed to play, typically three or four, determines whether you should prioritize running backs or wide receivers<\/a>, respectively.)<\/p>\n QuarterbackJustin Fields (Market QB12, my QB7)<\/p>\n LOL Jets. Gang Green (or is it gangrene) can\u2019t have nice things. They are Wile E. Coyote pulling down the shade in the TNT shack right before it gets smashed by the train. But what if you don\u2019t believe in curses? In his starts last year, Fields was the QB6. And that\u2019s the floor. The Jets\u2019 offensive line is good and could be great. Unlike the Steelers, their plan is for Fields to embrace his unique running ability with his WR speed and great size at 230 pounds. I expect 1,000 rushing yards and 10 TDs. But we don\u2019t have to pay for it because the world is snickering and assuming the Green and White will be a joke in perpetuity.<\/p>\n Trevor Lawrence (QB20, my QB9)<\/p>\n He\u2019s already had a season as QB7 in fantasy. How is he five slots behind Caleb Williams, when everything you can say about Williams you can say about Lawrence, and, unlike Williams, Lawrence has been a fantasy asset already in his career. Passing game guru as head coach? Check. Elite weaponry? Check. The talent of a No. 1 overall draft pick? Check. I am agnostic about QBs, but I believe in wide receivers, and I think Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter will be at or near the top of NFL WR tandems.<\/p>\n Running BackJonathan Taylor (RB10, RB6)<\/p>\n Taylor won his managers money last year with a playoff explosion. But by then, almost everyone who plays our game had tuned out because they were eliminated. So they missed that he averaged 100 rushing yards per game with nearly a TD per game. I understand if you think that if Anthony Richardson is the Colts\u2019 QB, then Taylor\u2019s targets and catches collapse into virtual nothingness.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a huge swing in Taylor\u2019s favor if Daniel Jones is his QB, about 30 to 40 expected catches. But even then, Richardson is such a running threat that defenses can\u2019t key on Taylor. Last year, when both were on the field, Taylor averaged 4.8 yards per tote and had 9 TDs. He averaged 15.8 fantasy PPG in those Richardson starts \u2014 267 points per 17 games, which would have been RB8 last year. So that\u2019s his range: Possibly RB1 with Jones, given those extra catches, to about RB8 with Richardson and without the catches. So anyway you slice it, RB10 makes zero sense.<\/p>\n Isiah Pacheco (RB26, RB16)<\/p>\n We\u2019re all still infatuated with Patrick Mahomes\u2019 fantasy mediocrity. So we\u2019re conditioned to think the Chiefs\u2019 RB is an afterthought who an explosive passing offense will marginalize. But the Chiefs grind it out on offense now and win with defense, the ideal environment for a bell-cow RB.<\/p>\n Is that Pacheco? Well, who else is it going to be? He looked bad last year after returning from injury, but that injury should\u2019ve been a season-ender. I can\u2019t take Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell seriously, due to age and an inability to stay healthy, respectively. Remember, before he was hurt, Pacheco was on pace for 300 touches, including 59 catches. He\u2019ll be the goal-line back, and the Chiefs don\u2019t sneak or tush push (0.1% designed runs for Mahomes last year).<\/p>\n Wide ReceiverTravis Hunter (WR31, WR20)<\/p>\n All the evidence supports my long-held position that Hunter is a wide receiver first and foremost. He played 92% of snaps with the first-team offense in the first preseason game. He\u2019s a starting WR on the depth chart and a backup CB. The head coach said the plan is for Hunter to get at least 80% of the snaps on offense. There\u2019s a belief Hunter is merely a generic first-round receiver and not one who would be drafted near the top of the round if not for his two-way skills. But most experts say that\u2019s false and maintain that he was by far the best WR prospect in a draft in which another WR went top-10 overall.<\/p>\n Look, Hunter\u2019s already up from WR35 last week, and the market is going to land at WR20, I confidently predict, by your late-August draft day. By then, I\u2019ll probably move him to WR15. Remember, this market had Marvin Harrison Jr. as the WR8 last year, so even WR15 is cheap for this talent. I think he and Brian Thomas will help each other, and each will command 25%+ of targets, similar to Ja\u2019Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.<\/p>\n Cooper Kupp (WR41, WR30)<\/p>\n The market proclaims, \u201cHe\u2019s DONE!\u201d Well, the Seahawks don\u2019t think so. They gave him a three-year contract. Kupp was hurt last year, so I don\u2019t hold that against him. He\u2019s been hurt a lot, it\u2019s true. This is his age-32 season. I want you to pay WR41, believe me. But if Kupp can stay healthy, he\u2019s getting 130 targets. Do the math. No matter how they want to run, the Seahawks will throw 525 passes. How many are you giving JSN? 300? Even at 175, that leaves 350 targets, and where is the competition for them? Kupp is not a Hall of Famer, but he\u2019s a historic fantasy WR and could rebound like Adam Thielen did not long ago at a similar age. He\u2019s free money now. You can\u2019t profit from fading Kupp at that price; you should draft him there.<\/p>\n Rashod Bateman (WR57, WR38)<\/p>\n I don\u2019t get it. The man averaged nearly 11 yards per target. He was elite at separating in the intermediate zone (10-19 air yards downfield). He just got a three-year contract. He is on the field almost as often as Zay Flowers (WR26 in the market), who goes 31 WR slots earlier. He plays with an MVP favorite who will likely throw for 40 TDs again. So Bateman, who had nine scores in 2024, is a solid bet to haul in that many or more scores again. At worst, he\u2019s the arbitrage Flowers. He\u2019s an easy pick where he\u2019s going, and the worst manager in your league will just look at the 2024 TDs. But we\u2019re (the rankers) the worst for giving him his current ADP.<\/p>\n Josh Palmer (WR74, WR43)<\/p>\n Again, follow the money. Palmer got serious coin from the Bills, starter money at $29 million for three years with $18 million guaranteed. Why can\u2019t he get 120 Josh Allen targets? That is ostensibly the Buffalo plan, and Palmer is WR74, basically undrafted? Madness. He\u2019s averaged 9.2 yards per target the past two years, which is solid, and that nets out to 1,100 yards if I\u2019m right about the targets and his efficiency carries forward with the MVP QB. The expert market pays zero attention to contracts, but money is speech, and the Bills are telling us they think Palmer is a leader in their passing game. And this isn\u2019t a contract they may want to eat \u2014 they just signed him!<\/p>\n (Photo of Cooper Kupp: Steph Chambers \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There are players the fantasy market irrationally hates. 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