{"id":729916,"date":"2026-06-11T15:38:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T15:38:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/729916\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T15:38:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T15:38:11","slug":"ufc-freedom-predictions-topuria-vs-gaethje-dfs-picks-value-plays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/729916\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Freedom Predictions: Topuria vs. Gaethje DFS Picks &#038; Value Plays"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>UFC DFS picks for this weekend&#8217;s UFC Freedom 250 card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lozad \" style=\"aspect-ratio:16 \/ 7\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/y2nb7caik87xgyvdqtym.jpg\" alt=\"UFC Freedom 250 Topuria vs. Gaethje DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes\" fetchpriority=\"high\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1500\" data-credit=\"Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images\"\/><br \/>\n\t\tTop DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC White House<\/p>\n<p>DFS plays for this weekend&#8217;s UFC White House card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake&#8217;s Takes.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Picks &amp; Career Results:<\/p>\n<p>2026 Overall Picks:\u00a0163-65-2\u00a0<br \/>2025 Overall Picks:\u00a0345-152-2\u00a0<br \/>DFS Lock of the Week:\u00a0Topuria<br \/>Fanduel Captain: Topuria<\/p>\n<p>Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) v.\u00a0Justin Gaethje\u00a0(27-5-0)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/ilia-topuria-2122\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ilia Topuria<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 5&#8217;7&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 69&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 17-0 (7 KO\/TKO, 8 submissions)Elite boxer with devastating power and underrated grapplingContinues to prove he is one of the most complete fighters in the sport\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/justin-gaethje-632\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Justin Gaethje<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 5&#8217;11&#8221; \u2013 Reach: 70&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 27-5 (19 KO\/TKO, 2 submissions)Relentless pressure fighter with legendary durability and knockout powerAlways dangerous and willing to turn fights into a war\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>DFS Perspective:<br \/>This should be an absolute banger and one of the best fights of the year. Gaethje is always live with his power and pressure, but Topuria is simply operating on another level right now. His boxing is cleaner, his defense is tighter, and he has the grappling advantage if he ever chooses to use it. Gaethje will have moments, but I expect Topuria to find the bigger shots and eventually put him away. Topuria profiles as one of the premier plays on the slate with massive finishing upside.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Pick: Topuria<\/p>\n<p>Think Topuria can hit his striking prop on PrizePicks? Check out the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/picks\/mma\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Best MMA Picks &amp; Prop Bets<\/a> by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks &amp; Props tool.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Alex Pereira (13-3-0) v.\u00a0Ciryl Gane\u00a0(13-2-0)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/alex-pereira-2214\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Alex Pereira<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 6&#8217;4&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 79&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-3 (11 KO\/TKO)One of the most feared strikers in MMA with legendary knockout powerCarries fight-ending ability every second the fight remains standing<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/ciryl-gane-1893\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ciryl Gane<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 6&#8217;4&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 81&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-2 (6 KO\/TKO, 3 submissions)Elite technical heavyweight with outstanding movement, speed, and striking defenseExcels at controlling range and frustrating opponents over five rounds<\/p>\n<p>DFS Perspective:<br \/>I&#8217;m going to lean Gane here, by a slight margin. Pereira moving up to heavyweight brings plenty of unanswered questions, especially against a natural heavyweight with Gane&#8217;s movement and athleticism. Gane should be the faster fighter and owns some of the best striking defense in the division, making him a difficult target for Pereira&#8217;s left hand. Pereira is always one shot away from changing the fight, but I&#8217;ll side with Gane to use his footwork, volume, and defensive skills to earn a competitive decision or late stoppage.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Pick: Gane<\/p>\n<p>Like this slight underdog play? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/daily\/mma\/optimizer.php\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"> DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer<\/a> to see what combinations you can create with this salary relief.<\/p>\n<p>Sean O&#8217;Malley (19-3-0) v.\u00a0Aiemann Zahabi\u00a0(14-2-0)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/sean-omalley-1279\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sean O&#8217;Malley<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 5&#8217;11&#8221; \u2013 Reach: 72&#8243; \u2013 Stance: SwitchRecord: 19-3 (11 KO\/TKO, 2 submissions)Elite striker with outstanding timing, footwork, and knockout powerExcels at controlling range and making opponents pay for every mistake<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/aiemann-zahabi-1136\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Aiemann Zahabi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 5&#8217;8&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 68&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 14-2 (5 KO\/TKO, 3 submissions)Well-rounded veteran riding an impressive winning streakHas shown improved boxing and composure against high-level competition\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>DFS Perspective:<br \/>O&#8217;Malley has significant advantages in length, speed, and overall striking ability, and he has consistently performed well against elite competition. Unless Zahabi is able to make this ugly and close the distance, I expect O&#8217;Malley to control the fight from range and eventually find a finish. O&#8217;Malley profiles as one of the strongest knockout plays on the slate.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Pick: O&#8217;Malley<\/p>\n<p>Derrick Lewis (29-13-0) v.\u00a0Josh Hokit\u00a0(9-0-0)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/derrick-lewis-559\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Derrick Lewis<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 6&#8217;3&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 79&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 29-13 (24 KO\/TKO, 1 submission)One of the hardest hitters in UFC history with fight-ending powerDangerous until the final bell, but recent performances have raised questions about durability and motivation\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/josh-hokit-2687\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Josh Hokit<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 6&#8217;1&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 73&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 9-0 (5 KO\/TKO, 3 submissions)Undefeated prospect with relentless pace, cardio, and underrated wrestlingComing off an impressive win over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/curtis-blaydes-862\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Curtis Blaydes<\/a> and continuing to rise rapidly through the heavyweight ranks\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>DFS Perspective:<br \/>Lewis is always one punch away from ending a fight, but this feels like a changing-of-the-guard matchup. Hokit pushes a relentless pace, mixes in wrestling, and has already proven he can handle a high-level heavyweight over three rounds. If Lewis doesn&#8217;t land something massive in the opening minutes, I expect Hokit to wear him down with volume and pressure. Hokit profiles as one of the stronger plays on the slate with both a high floor and a high ceiling.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Pick: Hokit<\/p>\n<p>Mauricio Ruffy (13-2-0) v.\u00a0Michael Chandler\u00a0(23-10-0)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/mauricio-ruffy-2535\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mauricio Ruffy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 5&#8217;11&#8221; \u2013 Reach: 75&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-2 (12 KO\/TKO)Elite striker with explosive speed and devastating knockout powerContinues to develop into one of the most dangerous lightweights in the UFC\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/michael-chandler-646\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Michael Chandler<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 5&#8217;8&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 71&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 23-10 (11 KO\/TKO, 7 submissions)Explosive veteran with wrestling and fight-ending powerAlways dangerous, but durability and decision-making have become major concerns late in his career\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>DFS Perspective:<br \/>This should be a shellacking by Ruffy. Chandler is always live for a big punch or an early takedown, but Ruffy is faster, cleaner, and far more dangerous in open space. Unless Chandler can completely change the fight with wrestling, I expect Ruffy to pick him apart and eventually find a highlight-reel knockout. Ruffy profiles as one of the premier plays on the slate with massive first-round finish upside.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Pick: Ruffy<\/p>\n<p>Bo Nickal (8-1-0) v.\u00a0Kyle Daukaus\u00a0(17-4-0)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/bo-nickal-2321\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bo Nickal<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 6&#8217;1&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 76&#8243; \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 8-1 (3 KO\/TKO, 4 submissions)Elite collegiate wrestler with outstanding top control and athleticismComing off a rebound win, but still has questions against higher-level MMA competition\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/kyle-daukaus-2038\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Kyle Daukaus<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 6&#8217;2&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 76&#8243; \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 17-4 (2 KO\/TKO, 12 submissions)Dangerous grappler with a slick submission game and improving strikingHas looked far better since returning to the UFC with two first-round finishes\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>DFS Perspective:<br \/>I&#8217;m going to take a chance with the dog here. Nickal has been a complete letdown relative to the hype and still hasn&#8217;t shown he can consistently dominate quality UFC competition. Daukaus, on the other hand, has looked like a different fighter since returning, showing more confidence, better striking, and the same dangerous submission game. Nickal&#8217;s wrestling is always a factor, but if he can&#8217;t control the fight early, Daukaus has the tools to make him uncomfortable everywhere. Daukaus profiles as one of my favorite underdog plays on the slate.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Pick: Daukaus<\/p>\n<p>Diego Lopes (27-8-0) v.\u00a0Steve Garcia\u00a0(19-5-0)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/diego-lopes-2422\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Diego Lopes<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 5&#8217;11&#8221; \u2013 Reach: 72&#8243; \u2013 Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 27-8 (11 KO\/TKO, 12 submissions)Dynamic finisher with elite power and dangerous submission abilityConstantly pressures forward and looks to end fights at every opportunity<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/mma\/player\/steve-garcia-933\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Steve Garcia<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Height: 6&#8217;0&#8243; \u2013 Reach: 75&#8243; \u2013 Stance: SouthpawRecord: 19-5 (15 KO\/TKO)Aggressive striker with heavy hands and excellent finishing instinctsThrives in chaotic fights and is always hunting the knockout<\/p>\n<p>DFS Perspective:<br \/>This should be one of the most entertaining fights on the card and could end at any moment. Garcia has the power to make anyone uncomfortable, but Lopes brings another level of explosiveness and finishing ability. If these two stand and trade, I trust Lopes to land the cleaner and more damaging shots. Slight lean Lopes in a fight that should produce a solid DFS score regardless of who gets their hand raised.<\/p>\n<p>UFC Freedom 250 Pick: Lopes<\/p>\n<p>FANDUEL MMA SCORING<\/p>\n<p>Moves Scoring<br \/>Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts<br \/>Takedown = 6 pts<br \/>Knockdown = 12 pts<br \/>Submission Attempt = 5 pts<\/p>\n<p>Fight Conclusion Bonuses<br \/>1st Round Win = 100 pts<br \/>2nd Round Win = 75 pts<br \/>3rd Round Win = 50 pts<br \/>4th Round Win = 35 pts<br \/>5th Round Win = 25 pts<br \/>Decision Win = 20 pts<\/p>\n<p>Scoring Notes<\/p>\n<p>Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch\/ground strikes that are considered &#8220;power strikes&#8221; by official scorers.A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his\/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING<\/p>\n<p>Moves Scoring<br \/>Strikes: +0.2 pts<br \/>Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts<br \/>Control Time: +0.03 pts\/Second<br \/>Takedown (TD): +5 pts<br \/>Reversal\/Sweep (REV): +5 pts<br \/>Knockdown (KD): +10 pts<\/p>\n<p>Fight Conclusion Bonuses<br \/>1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts<br \/>2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts<br \/>3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts<br \/>4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts<br \/>5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts<br \/>Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts<br \/>Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts<br \/>(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)<\/p>\n<p>Scoring Notes<\/p>\n<p>Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch\/ground strikes that are considered &#8220;power strikes&#8221; by official scorers.A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his\/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.<\/p>\n<p>The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including \u2013 but not limited to \u2013 games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it&#8217;s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UFC DFS picks for this weekend&#8217;s UFC Freedom 250 card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":729917,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,244002,785,85],"class_list":["post-729916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-minor-league-stats","tag-mma","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/729916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=729916"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/729916\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/729917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=729916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=729916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=729916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}