Australians will not see oil prices return to pre-Iran war levels until 2028 under the best-case scenario, an energy expert has revealed as the conflict heats up again.<\/p>\n
US officials confirmed this week that strikes had resumed against Iranian targets after Tehran shot down a US helicopter on Monday.<\/p>\n
Both nations have since struck each other\u2019s assets and Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, sparking concerns about more rises in oil prices.<\/p>\n
MST Financial energy analyst Saul Kavonic said Australians will not see oil prices return to levels seen in February for several years under the best circumstances.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt’s very hard to unscramble this egg and see how oil prices return to those much lower prices we saw at the beginning of the year,\u201d Mr Kavonic told Business Now.<\/p>\n
Oil prices are up to about US$93 per barrel on Thursday afternoon. This is higher than the US$70 per barrel price tag at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n
Mr Kavonic stressed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz and guaranteeing a lasting peace between the US and Iran would not be enough to bring prices back down.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven in the most optimistic case scenario, for example, where we see a sustained peace still announced tomorrow, and it’s adhered to by the Iranian regime,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThose are two massive and unlikely ifs, but even in that scenario, it’s going to take a few to several months for flows to get close to normalisation again.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd then on top of that, you’re going to have to then rebuild the over one billion barrels of stocks that have been lost over this period.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat will keep demand high for at least one or two years after this.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said the need for Australia to build up oil stocks to avoid putting itself in a vulnerable position, alongside Iran\u2019s dominance over the Strait, make getting oil prices back to normal more difficult.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou put all of that together and I think we aren’t going to see a return to those very weak oil prices we saw the beginning of this year through 2027, perhaps only into 2028,\u201d Mr Kavonic said.<\/p>\n
Australians are also in for some price pain at the bowser at the beginning of July when the full fuel excise will be reinstated.<\/p>\n
Labor halved the fuel excise for the three months up until July 1, taking 26.3 cents per litre off rising prices.<\/p>\n
The states and territories also agreed to a further excise cut which took off another 5.7 cents per litre.<\/p>\n
This brought the total reduction to 32 cents per litre for the three-month period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australians will not see oil prices return to pre-Iran war levels until 2028 under the best-case scenario, an…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":730540,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,274653,99,5517,164,130870,19136,19178,26473,5520,130869,260077,143126],"class_list":["post-730539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-bowser","tag-business","tag-diesel","tag-economy","tag-fuel-prices","tag-oil","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-prices","tag-petrol","tag-petrol-prices","tag-saul-kavonic","tag-strait-of-hormuz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=730539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/730539\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/730540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=730539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=730539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=730539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}