{"id":732478,"date":"2026-06-12T19:37:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T19:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/732478\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T19:37:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T19:37:13","slug":"2026-fifa-world-cup-predictions-our-ai-monte-carlo-simulations-identified-the-tournament-favourite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/732478\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 FIFA World Cup predictions: Our AI Monte Carlo simulations identified the tournament favourite"},"content":{"rendered":"

Updated June 12, 2026 \u2014 11:52am,first published 11:50am<\/p>\n

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At the beginning of any World Cup, you can find all kinds of predictions and prognostications.<\/p>\n

But the vast majority rely on the viewpoint of one person, one computer or one Paul the Octopus, may he rest in peace.<\/p>\n

\"PaulPaul the octopus predicted a German win over England at the 2010 World Cup.DDP<\/p>\n

To kickstart this year\u2019s World Cup, our head of visual stories<\/a> Mark Stehle used AI, filled with a bunch of cutting-edge statistics, to run what is called a \u201cMonte Carlo simulation\u201d to identify the most likely tournament winner.<\/p>\n

In basic terms, the Monte Carlo simulation ran through the 48 teams and their data with random probabilities thousands of times and reported which scenarios occurred the most.<\/p>\n

Stehle asked the AI to play 100,000 distinct versions of the 104-match 2026 World Cup schedule, and now we can present you with the findings, including breaking the teams into tiers, from the heavyweights to the longshots.<\/p>\n

Spain topped the simulations with a baseline winning percentage of 16.1 per cent of the time, while the Socceroos finished with just a 0.10 per cent winning percentage, which ranks them 33rd out of 48 teams.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Among the numbers used are the dynamic Elo Ratings for each team, advanced stats like expected goals [known as xG], travel and rest degradation and the strength of the group and knockout bracket that each team is in.<\/p>\n

Spain\u2019s possession-based playing style should allow them to handle the North American heat better than other nations, according to the simulations, while Portugal\u2019s supposedly softer group and bracket paved them a road to victory in several of the simulations.<\/p>\n

No matter how many simulations you run, the crazy randomness of the actual World Cup will produce scenarios the AI never dreamt of, but the findings sure make for an interesting guide to how the tournament could play out.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

As a comparison, here are the predictions of our soccer writers and some other experts.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

News, results and expert analysis from the weekend of sport sent every Monday. Sign up for our Sport newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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\"RoyRoy Ward<\/a> is a sports writer, live blogger and breaking news journalist. He’s been writing for The Age since 2010.Connect via X<\/a> or email<\/a>.\"MarkMark Stehle<\/a> heads the Visual Stories Team at The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, Brisbane Times and WAtoday.Connect via email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Updated June 12, 2026 \u2014 11:52am,first published 11:50am Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":732479,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":["post-732478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/732478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=732478"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/732478\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/732479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=732478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=732478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=732478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}