A decade after Brexit and Donald Trump\u2019s first election victory, Australia is having its own populist moment. While the economy overall has largely sailed unscathed through a turbulent 21st century, compounding crises have left a deep scar on a growing number of households.<\/p>\n
And instead of being powered by disgruntled younger folk thirsty for change, the driving force has been a generation that has mostly sailed quietly through the recent decades of compounding crises.<\/p>\n
Stereotypically disengaged from politics and reluctant to make a scene, generation X are now mostly in their 50s and are finally making themselves heard.<\/p>\n
And they are not happy.<\/p>\n
One Nation\u2019s ascent over the past year is nothing short of extraordinary. The party scored 6.4% of the primary vote at the May 2025 election. By October the party\u2019s primary vote had notionally doubled to 13%, according to the Essential poll.<\/p>\n
One Nation\u2019s popularity has since doubled again to now sit at 28% \u2013 only one point behind Labor.<\/p>\n
The grievances that have driven voters towards One Nation have coalesced among people in their 50s, where support peaks at 43% among Gen Xers, according to polling by Redbridge.<\/p>\n
Experts refer to Gen X as the sandwich generation, having to provide for older parents and younger children. They face a swathe of economic challenges including far lower home ownership, watching the rich get richer as they struggle with low wages growth that has many feeling left behind.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s this environment, the unique issues stretching people in their 40s and 50s, which experts say could be driving Gen Xers towards what once were the fringes of politics.<\/p>\n
\u2018It\u2019s 100% the economy\u2019<\/p>\n
Wesley Jasper doesn\u2019t need to think about it. Ask him why he intends to vote for One Nation, he says \u201cthe economy\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201c100% the economy,\u201d he says. \u201cWhere does my money go in taxes, and how does that benefit me?<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd living standards. What can we do for people like me who\u2019ve worked hard my whole life? Let\u2019s raise the living standards a bit, shall we, or let\u2019s improve standards for people who choose to go out and do the right thing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Jasper had a long career in the military and now works for a government organisation. He and his partner wanted to bring their kids up in Canberra; they \u201clove everything about it\u201d but have just moved back to Ballarat because it\u2019s more affordable.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe wife and I, [in the] last 10, 15 years or so, we both came out of previous relationships,\u201d he says. \u201cWe were living and working in Canberra, so we were trying to pay high rent and that sort of stuff. We both kind of lost everything.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo we scraped, and we saved, and we came back to Ballarat because financially it made sense, so we are new mortgage holders.\u201d<\/p>\n
The latest polling suggests One Nation\u2019s overall primary vote is now at 31% against Labor\u2019s 28%. Photograph: Jesse Thompson\/Getty Images<\/p>\n
Jasper describes himself as \u201clongtime listener, first-time caller\u201d to One Nation. He had always been a swinging voter \u2013 but this year, he signed up to be a member of the party.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the end of the day, I\u2019ve worked for 35 years, and I\u2019m kind of feeling like I\u2019m not getting value for money out of what I\u2019ve done,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve really got not much to show. And that hurts because I know there are people who have been able to retire. And I\u2019m still probably 10 or 15 years away.\u201d<\/p>\n
The orange tsunami<\/p>\n
Academic studies<\/a> have found a powerful causal link between growing economic pessimism and Australia\u2019s extraordinary shift away from major parties and towards independent \u2013 and now populist \u2013 alternatives.<\/p>\n Kos Samaras, Redbridge\u2019s director of strategy and analytics, said before the latest surge in support, the typical One Nation voter was in the 50s and 60s, living in a home they were close to paying off. They were worried about deteriorating services and a community in decline.<\/p>\n \u201cLots of status anxiety, but financially not doing too bad,\u201d Samaras says.<\/p>\n The Redbridge polling<\/a> suggests One Nation\u2019s overall primary vote is now at 31%, against Labor\u2019s 28%.<\/p>\n The new supporters swelling One Nation\u2019s base are a much broader constituency, he says. This group are younger, in their 40s and 50s, and are renting in the outer suburbs or in the regions.<\/p>\n Not owning a home in your 50s is a source of deep despondency, Samaras says. \u201cOr if they have a mortgage, they have borrowed at the edge of their capacities when rates were low.\u201d<\/p>\n Analysis of ABS data shows a major rise in renting among those aged between their mid-40s and mid-50s: from 12% to 21% over the nearly three decades.<\/p>\n More Australians are renting later in life<\/a>The meat in the sandwich<\/p>\n Terry Rawnsley, an urban economist at KPMG, says Gen X are the classic \u201csandwich generation\u201d, squeezed between older boomer parents in their 70s and 80s and kids who are still at home and facing their own generational challenges.<\/p>\n But Rawnsley says today\u2019s crop of Australians aged between their late 40s and early 60s are contending with a set of economic challenges that are particular to them.<\/p>\n He also points to the fact that home ownership rates among Gen X are much lower than their parents at this age, while \u201cthe lucky ones who do own their own home have much bigger debt than their parents would have had, and are operating in a more uncertain economic environment\u201d.<\/p>\n The ABS data confirms that the share of people aged 45-54 years who own their home outright has dropped dramatically since the late 1990s.<\/p>\n In 1998, more than 40% of Australians aged 45-54 owned their own home outright. By 2020, only 15% lived in a home they owned mortgage-free.<\/p>\n