The rapid expansion of renewables helped drive the first annual decline in carbon emissions from China\u2019s power sector in more than a decade, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).<\/a> The trend appeared to reinforce expectations that China could meet its goal of peaking its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.<\/p>\n Coal-fired generation, however, rose again during the first four months of this year, pushing power-sector emissions higher, though they remain below 2024 levels. Analysts say the rebound raises questions about whether last year\u2019s decline represents a lasting structural shift.<\/p>\n The resurgence also comes as China continues to rapidly approve and construct new coal-fired power plants.<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe situation is alarming,\u201d Qi Qin, an analyst at CREA, told Inside Climate News, \u201cChina has installed enormous amounts of solar and wind capacity, but the question is whether that capacity is being fully utilized.\u201d<\/p>\n For decades, Chinese policymakers have viewed coal as a cornerstone of national energy security. Unlike oil and natural gas, which are more exposed to geopolitical risks and disruptions in global trade, coal is widely regarded by policymakers as a reliable source of electricity that can help stabilize the power system during periods of uncertainty.\u00a0<\/p>\n Official data show<\/a> that China produces more than 90 percent of the coal it consumes domestically, while imports account for roughly three-quarters of its oil supply and about 40 percent of its natural gas consumption.<\/p>\n Those concerns have been reinforced by recent disruptions in global energy markets linked to tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. China\u2019s crude oil imports fell about 20 percent year-over-year in April, while natural gas imports declined 12.5 percent, official customs data shows.<\/p>\n Some researchers, however, argue that the energy-security rationale is becoming less convincing as renewable energy expands.<\/p>\n \u201cThe arguments to say we need this because of what\u2019s happening with the U.S. attacking Iran, those arguments are just old,\u201c said Daniel M. Kammen, a professor of energy and climate justice at Johns Hopkins University, \u201cBut they keep using them because many political leaders don\u2019t think that renewables are cheaper than fossil energy. \u201c<\/p>\n Research shows that assumption is no longer correct.<\/p>\n A BloombergNEF analysis<\/a> published last year found that electricity generated by new wind and solar projects is already cheaper than power from newly built coal- and gas-fired plants in almost every market worldwide. The cost advantage is particularly pronounced in China, where the country\u2019s dominance in solar-panel and wind-turbine manufacturing has driven renewable-energy costs sharply down.<\/p>\n Both Kammen and Qin argue that coal\u2019s persistence is driven not only by energy-security concerns but also by political and economic interests.<\/p>\n Coal-producing provinces depend heavily on mining for jobs and tax revenue, giving local governments strong incentives to support the industry. Meanwhile, wealthier coastal provinces often prefer to maintain local generation capacity rather than rely on electricity imported through long-distance transmission networks from western and northern China.<\/p>\n China began construction on 94.5 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity in 2024, the highest level since 2015. The construction boom extended into 2025, when roughly 78 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity were commissioned, also marking largest annual increase in a decade.<\/p>\n The trend continues this year, as the country added another 24 gigawatts of coal power in the first quarter.<\/p>\n Qin said the increase in coal-fired generation is likely driven less by conflict around the Strait of Hormuz than by the rapid addition of new coal plants to the grid.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is more likely that China has commissioned too many new coal-fired power plants since 2024,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Analysts say the surge in coal construction could have long-term implications for China\u2019s energy transition. Many newly built coal plants operate under medium- and long-term power contracts that guarantee a specific level of utilization, creating competition with renewable energy for a limited pool of electricity demand.<\/p>\n \u201cSome say these new coal plants are being built as backup for renewable energy,\u201d Qin said.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cBut China only has so much room for new electricity demand. How will coal power and renewable energy compete with each other? In our view, it is a competition, and coal plants have an institutional advantage.\u201d<\/p>\n Some supporters of coal expansion argue that new plants are replacing older, less efficient facilities. Qin disputes that claim. CREA researchers found that China retired only about 3 gigawatts of coal-fired power capacity last year.<\/p>\n The tension is noticeable in western China, where renewable-energy resources are abundant but electricity demand is relatively low.<\/p>\n This story is funded by readers like you.<\/p>\n Our nonprofit newsroom provides award-winning climate coverage free of charge and advertising. We rely on donations from readers like you to keep going. Please donate now to support our work.<\/p>\n Donate Now<\/a> <\/p>\n Qinghai province, for example, covers roughly 280,000 square miles, about the size of Texas, but has a population of just 5.9 million people. The province has become one of China\u2019s leading renewable-energy hubs. Chinese state media reported that Qinghai had installed 73 gigawatts of clean-energy capacity by October 2025, including solar, wind and hydropower, accounting for about 93 percent of its total generating capacity.<\/p>\n Much of that electricity is destined for population centers in eastern China through long-distance transmission lines, a strategy long promoted by Beijing.<\/p>\n But Qin said many eastern provinces remain reluctant to depend heavily on imported electricity.<\/p>\n \u201cFor high-demand provinces in eastern China, they prefer to maintain control over power generation themselves,\u201d she said. \u201cSo they continue building coal plants. That allows them to keep the investment, tax revenue and employment locally.\u201d<\/p>\n The result, Qin said, is a growing conflict between China\u2019s national climate goals and the incentives facing local governments.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is a huge problem in terms of the flexibility of China\u2019s energy strategy,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n The economic and political stakes are significant. About 2.7 million people still work in China\u2019s coal-mining industry. Although employment has roughly halved from its peak in 2013, coal remains a major source of jobs and government revenue in many inland provinces.<\/p>\n The debate comes as China continues to grapple with the human costs of coal production. A gas explosion at a coal mine in Shanxi province in May killed 82 people, injured 124 and left two missing, making it the country\u2019s deadliest mining disaster in more than 17 years.<\/p>\n The toll from coal extends beyond high-profile accidents. For decades, coal miners across China have suffered from pneumoconiosis<\/a>, commonly known as black lung disease, caused by prolonged exposure to coal dust. The disease remains one of the country\u2019s most serious occupational health challenges.\u00a0<\/p>\n Beyond the mines, coal combustion generates air pollution and carbon emissions. Although China has made significant progress in improving air quality through stricter emissions standards and cleaner technologies, coal remains a major source of fine particulate pollution and the country\u2019s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions<\/a>.<\/p>\n Kammen said the accident brought renewed attention to the hazards of coal mining. However, many provinces remain reluctant to reduce coal production because of concerns about job losses.<\/p>\n While most of the coal mines are in the inland provinces, the manufacturing hubs for renewable energy, such as solar panels and wind turbines, are in the east.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIt is unlikely that a coal miner who loses his job in Shanxi province is going to move to a clean-tech job in Shanghai,\u201d Kammen said. \u201cThe challenge is really, how does China keep pushing on renewables, but without angering the coal-producing parts of the country?\u201d<\/p>\n In a written statement, China\u2019s National Energy Administration described coal-fired power as the \u201cbackbone\u201d and \u201cstabilizing force\u201d of the country\u2019s electricity system, saying it plays a \u201ccritical role\u201d in ensuring a secure and reliable power supply.<\/p>\n Kammen argues that this should not be used to justify building more coal-fired power plants.<\/p>\n \u201cChina is already the biggest producer not only of solar panels and wind turbines, \u201cbut also batteries,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd China could certainly convert some of its hydro capacity to act like a battery if they want. So the old argument that you need coal for security is definitely incorrect.\u201d<\/p>\n For Kammen, who frequently travels to China and has long worked with Chinese researchers and policymakers on clean-energy development, the shift has made his efforts to accelerate the world\u2019s largest carbon emitter\u2019s transition to net-zero emissions even more challenging.<\/p>\n \u201cThis has made everybody\u2019s job more difficult,\u201d he said. \u201cChina\u2019s path is too slow. The U.S. path was good under President Biden. But now, of course, we\u2019ve gone in totally the wrong direction.\u201d<\/p>\n Clean-energy and transportation investment in the United States declined 11 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter last year, the first year-over-year quarterly decline since 2019. Investment then fell another 3 percent in the first quarter this year, the Clean Investment Monitor found.<\/a><\/p>\n Solar and wind power continue to expand rapidly in China. Nearly 59 gigawatts of new renewable-energy capacity were installed in the first quarter of this year, accounting for about 70 percent of all newly added power-generation capacity.<\/p>\n Yet the central question remains unresolved. As more coal-fired power plants are commissioned, the challenge is no longer how quickly China can build renewable energy, but \u201chow fast and to what extent renewables will be allowed to displace coal,\u201d Qin said. The answer may become clearer this year: Whether China\u2019s power-sector emissions can decline for a second consecutive year will be an early test of the country\u2019s energy transition.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\tAbout This Story<\/p>\n Perhaps you noticed: This story, like all the news we publish, is free to read. That\u2019s because Inside Climate News is a 501c3 nonprofit organization. We do not charge a subscription fee, lock our news behind a paywall, or clutter our website with ads. We make our news on climate and the environment freely available to you and anyone who wants it.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not all. We also share our news for free with scores of other media organizations around the country. Many of them can\u2019t afford to do environmental journalism of their own. We\u2019ve built bureaus from coast to coast to report local stories, collaborate with local newsrooms and co-publish articles so that this vital work is shared as widely as possible.<\/p>\n Two of us launched ICN in 2007. Six years later we earned a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting, and now we run the oldest and largest dedicated climate newsroom in the nation. We tell the story in all its complexity. We hold polluters accountable. We expose environmental injustice. We debunk misinformation. We scrutinize solutions and inspire action.<\/p>\n Donations from readers like you fund every aspect of what we do. 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A worker sprays water on coal at a storage yard in Nanjing, China, on Oct. 31, 2025. Credit: CFOTO\/Future Publishing via Getty Images<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Andrew-Liu-300x300.jpg\"\/)
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