{"id":737482,"date":"2026-06-15T05:53:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T05:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/737482\/"},"modified":"2026-06-15T05:53:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T05:53:14","slug":"victorian-politics-labors-own-supporters-say-times-up-for-allan-government-poll-shows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/737482\/","title":{"rendered":"Victorian politics: Labor\u2019s own supporters say time\u2019s up for Allan government, poll shows"},"content":{"rendered":"

Updated June 15, 2026 \u2014 2:28pm,first published 11:44am<\/p>\n

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There is a pronounced mood for political change in Victoria, with only one in four voters agreeing that Labor deserves another term in office and nearly half the electorate declaring the two-party system at an end.<\/p>\n

The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead over two surveys in May and June, reveals the continued rise of One Nation at the expense of both major parties, with Pauline Hanson\u2019s anti-establishment movement<\/a> on track to become the most popular political party in Australia\u2019s most politically progressive state.<\/p>\n

\"PaulinePauline Hanson, Jacinta Allan and Jess Wilson. Their parties are neck and neck in Victoria, according to the latest Resolve polling.Marija Ercegovac<\/p>\n

It shows One Nation\u2019s primary support up 3 percentage points since the last poll<\/a> to 24 per cent, Labor dropping 1 point to 26 per cent and the Coalition also on 26 per cent, down 3 points.<\/p>\n

A breakdown of individual survey results, while based on smaller sample sizes, makes clear One Nation\u2019s trajectory. When the first survey was taken in May, the party was sitting on 20 per cent. By the time of the second survey, conducted last week, primary support for One Nation had surged to 28 per cent \u2013 the strongest for any party.<\/p>\n

The published results are an average from the two surveys.<\/p>\n

Resolve does not calculate a two-party preferred outcome, but senior strategists from Labor and the Coalition privately concede that if these primary vote numbers were replicated at the November election, Victoria would almost certainly be left with a hung parliament.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The implications are mixed for Premier Jacinta Allan, whose leadership is the subject of renewed speculation<\/a> ahead of a caucus meeting on Tuesday. Although she has avoided the sort of polling disaster that might have sparked an immediate challenge, Labor\u2019s electoral outlook remains dire.<\/p>\n

The individual survey results show that Labor\u2019s primary support improved immediately after the May state budget, which contained cost-of-living relief measures <\/a>such has half-priced public transport and 20 per cent discounts on car registrations, then slumped in last week\u2019s survey amid the latest leadership murmurings.<\/p>\n

Allan\u2019s supporters will point to this as the self-fulfilling outcome of a destabilisation campaign waged by a small group of party figures inside and outside parliament. Her detractors \u2013 and perhaps some anxious MPs undecided about the leadership question \u2013 will see it as evidence that under Allan\u2019s leadership, Labor is heading towards electoral defeat.<\/p>\n

The Coalition\u2019s primary support also fell between surveys.<\/p>\n

\"VictorianVictorian Premier Jacinta Allan on Monday. The latest poll shows only one in four voters believe her government deserves another term.Ruby Alexander<\/p>\n

Resolve founder Jim Reed said one take-away was beyond dispute. \u201cOne Nation is in the ascendancy, as they are everywhere right now,\u201d he said. \u201cIf they keep gaining votes as they are, the sky is the limit.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Victoria, people need to start asking questions about who their state leader will be and what their state policies are. At the moment, many are acting like they\u2019re voting for Pauline or against immigration.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AdamAdam Giles and Gina Rinehart in 2023.<\/p>\n

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, a Queensland senator, also serves as the party\u2019s president. She is yet to announce whom she has chosen to lead her party in Victoria. Adam Giles, a former NT chief minister<\/a> who currently lives in Victoria and oversees some of Gina Rinehart\u2019s business interests, was a notable attendee at a One Nation fundraiser in South Melbourne last week.<\/p>\n

Giles said at the weekend that he was not a member of One Nation, hasn\u2019t \u201cgot any plans\u201d to join and had \u201cno intention of running\u201d for Victorian parliament.<\/p>\n

However, he did not rule out a leadership role if approached.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019d consider it. I\u2019m not saying yes, but if it was on a voluntary, part-time basis, I\u2019d consider it,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Hanson told Friday night\u2019s fundraiser that One Nation would be willing to partner <\/a>the Victorian Coalition in government. Former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett has urged his party to embrace this idea. Opposition leader Jess Wilson, when asked over the weekend whether she would work with One Nation, did not rule out the possibility.<\/p>\n

One of the most remarkable figures within the Resolve research is the percentage of people intending to vote Labor who no longer believe the government should be re-elected. When asked whether the Allan Labor government deserves another term, 31 per cent of Labor voters disagreed.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The question also confirmed the strength of anti-government sentiment among One Nation voters. Just 4 per cent agreed Labor deserved another four years.<\/p>\n

The flipside of this question \u2013 whether the Wilson-led opposition is capable of governing \u2013 produced an encouraging response for the Liberal and National coalition. A total of 46 per cent of respondents agreed, while 35 per cent disagreed.<\/p>\n

Reed said the results reflected a clear mood for a change in government in Victoria. He compared the results to the voter sentiment which accompanied the final term of the last, long-serving Labor government in NSW, when the party churned through leaders but was unable to avoid an electoral drubbing.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is an end-of-days feeling we last saw before the 2011 NSW election where Labor had just had too long in power,\u201d Reed said. \u201cI don\u2019t think a leadership change would make that much difference at this stage.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question is whether One Nation and the Liberal Party share the spoils, or one gains the upper hand before November. Many people will vote for whoever they think will win and bring about change.\u201d<\/p>\n

Speaking before the poll\u2019s release on Monday morning, Allan said she did not expect a leadership challenge on Tuesday, and that nobody in her party room \u2013 including her deputy leader and most likely replacement, Ben Carroll \u2013 had spoken to her about stepping down.<\/p>\n

\u201cI have a strong united Labor team. We\u2019re united by a shared sense of values and working damn hard every single day for the communities we represent,\u201d the premier said.<\/p>\n

Carroll told the same press conference that he would not try to roll the premier on Tuesday, but declined to rule out aspiring to become premier, saying only that had he had \u201cgot the job I want\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"BenBen Carroll looks Jacinta Allan in the eye and says he doesn\u2019t plan to roll her.Nine News<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve always aspired to be the education minister. We have a premier and she\u2019s working harder than anyone every day,\u201d he said. \u201cI want to serve Jacinta Allan.\u201d<\/p>\n

Allan said in an exclusive interview with The Age on Saturday<\/a> that the surge in support for One Nation, and the prospect of a state coalition between the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation in Victoria, was worrying.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat concerns me is what that would mean for our society, our community and our economy,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Pauline<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cI think One Nation are a risk to working people and families everywhere.\u201d<\/p>\n

The twin Resolve surveys of 1100 voters also asked whether the two-party system, a political duopoly which has determined Victoria\u2019s parliamentary representation since the end of the World War II, was over. Just 13 per cent disagreed with this proposition.<\/p>\n

The poll results suggest that, as Victoria heads towards a volatile and unpredictable state election on November 28, some things are baked in. Allan\u2019s approval rating appears entrenched, with the mark slipping back to minus 35, where it was at the start of the year. Wilson is broadly liked by voters, with a positive approval rating of 15, albeit also a worse result than last survey.<\/p>\n

On Sunday Wilson addressed a \u201cscrap the tax\u201d rally \u2013 organised by opponents of the rebadged emergency services and volunteers levy on property owners introduced at the start of the current financial year \u2013 in Allan\u2019s home town of Bendigo.<\/p>\n

Wilson has promised to abolish the levy and revert to previous tax arrangements if she leads the next government. Allan is facing a fierce contest<\/a> from the Nationals and One Nation to retain her seat of Bendigo East, which she has held since 1999. Wilson said the Liberals would also stand a candidate.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The premier, who replaced the retiring Daniel Andrews in September 2023, must also overcome significant historical barriers for Labor to stay in power. No Labor government in Victoria has won four successive terms. Labor has never won an election after changing leaders, as Joan Kirner and John Brumby were both voted out of office in the previous two attempts.<\/p>\n

Allan and Wilson are both vying to become the first female leader<\/a> to win a state election in Victoria.<\/p>\n

From next month, as part of this masthead\u2019s expanded coverage of state politics in the lead-up to the state election, Resolve Political Monitor will double its monthly survey sample of Victorian voters.<\/p>\n

This will enable The Age to publish, on a monthly basis, voting intentions and responses to additional questions designed to improve our understanding of the issues that matter most to this state.<\/p>\n

Start the day with a summary of the day\u2019s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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\"ChipChip Le Grand<\/a> leads our state politics reporting team. He previously served as the paper\u2019s chief reporter and is a journalist of 30 years\u2019 experience.Connect via email<\/a>.\"PatrickPatrick Hatch<\/a> is transport reporter at The Age and a former business reporter.Connect via X<\/a> or email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Updated June 15, 2026 \u2014 2:28pm,first published 11:44am Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":737483,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-737482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/737482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=737482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/737482\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/737483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=737482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=737482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=737482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}