{"id":738969,"date":"2026-06-15T23:38:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T23:38:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/738969\/"},"modified":"2026-06-15T23:38:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T23:38:09","slug":"breakfast-briefing-markets-jump-to-conclusions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/738969\/","title":{"rendered":"Breakfast briefing: Markets jump to conclusions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here&#8217;s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the US-Iran deal is being viewed with relief by financial markets, but commodity markets are less enthusiastic. Commodity prices are expected to remain higher than they were in February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran, even after this latest deal to end the war, as it will take months for risk premiums to retreat and give breathing space to commodity-importing economies.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>However first today, American <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/g17\/current\/default.htm\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">manufacturing output stalled in May<\/a> from April to be +1.4% higher than year-ago levels and a lower improvement than expected.<\/p>\n<p>Also coming in weaker than expected was the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/medialibrary\/media\/survey\/empire\/empire2026\/2026-06-empire-state-manufacturing-survey.pdf?sc_lang=en&amp;hash=394CBECA231B38DED180AF915BD63600\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">June factory survey<\/a> for the New York region although they did report a small rise in new orders. The pace of input cost increases remains very elevated however.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/news-and-economics\/press-releases\/2026\/06\/builder-sentiment-remains-weak-amid-affordability-concerns\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">NAHB survey<\/a> of housebuilders was little-changed in June, remaining weak on affordability concerns.<\/p>\n<p>In Canada, May <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca\/media-newsroom\/news-releases\/2026\/housing-starts-construction-data-may-2026\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">housing starts<\/a> dipped from the prior month but remain high on an historical basis.<\/p>\n<p>Canada also <a href=\"https:\/\/www150.statcan.gc.ca\/n1\/daily-quotidien\/260615\/dq260615a-eng.htm\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> its April industrial production was strong, with manufacturing sales up +4.2% following a +3.4% rise in March. Sales rose in 17 of the 21 subsectors, led by the fuel products and food subsectors.<\/p>\n<p>India said its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commerce.gov.in\/files\/2026-06\/PIB%20Release%20-%20May%202026_0.pdf\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">exports rose<\/a> to US$45.2 bln in May, a record high for them and +18% above the May 2025 level.<\/p>\n<p>After three months of declines, <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/en\/web\/products-euro-indicators\/w\/4-15062026-ap\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">industrial production rose<\/a> in April in the EU in a better than expected result (even if the rise was quite minor).<\/p>\n<p>And France is facing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/americas\/20260615-french-wine-at-risk-trump-threatens-100-tariff-over-digital-tax\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">US pressure<\/a> for attempting to get the US tech giant to pay some tax on their French operations. Big Tech has weaponised its support of the US President to try and avoid France&#8217;s 3% digital services tax. Even that is too much for them. Relying on US tech is risky, and those risks got larger with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.anthropic.com\/news\/fable-mythos-access\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">US banning key new Anthropic products<\/a> &#8220;from export&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/charts\/interest-rates\/us-treasures\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">The UST 10yr yield<\/a> is now just on 4.46%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +41 bps (+1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is now at +34 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +80 bps (-2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate little-changed at 1.75%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 2.57%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.85%, up +3 bps from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.44%.<\/p>\n<p>Wall Street has started its week strongly with the S&amp;P500 up +1.8% and the Nasdaq up +2.9%. Overnight, European markets were mixed between Frankfurt&#8217;s +1.4% rise and London&#8217;s -0.4% retreat. Tokyo ended its Monday session up an eye-catching +5.0%. Hong Kong however only rose +0.5% with Shanghai up +1.6%. Singapore rose +1.0%. The ASX200 ended its Monday session up +1.2%. But the NZX50 eased an out-of-step -0.2%.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/charts\/commodities\/precious-metals\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The price of gold<\/a> has recovered further, up +US$99 from yesterday to US$4321\/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 to US$70\/oz.<\/p>\n<p>Oil prices are down -US$4.50 from yesterday at just under US$80.50\/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$83\/bbl. <a href=\"https:\/\/hormuzstraitmonitor.com\/\" rel=\" noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Hormuz transits<\/a> are still minimal with no significant movements of crude or product tankers overnight.<\/p>\n<p>The US went to war with Iran because they would not &#8220;negotiate&#8221; their surrender. Now Trump claims peace based on a negotiation with a regime he cannot defeat nor control. Likely the &#8220;worst deal ever&#8221;. What could possibly go wrong?<\/p>\n<p>The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9 which is down -10 bps from yesterday.<\/p>\n<p>The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,868 and up +5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +\/- 2.9%.<\/p>\n<p>Select chart tabs<\/p>\n<p>                          US$<br \/>\n                            AU$<br \/>\n                            TWI-5<br \/>\n                            \u00a5en<br \/>\n                            \u00a5uan<br \/>\n                            \u20acuro<br \/>\n                            GBP<br \/>\n                            Bitcoin<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\n  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/rural-news\/soil-moisture-animation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><br \/>\n    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/soil-moisture-2026-06-06.gif\" title=\"click to go to animation page\"\/><\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p>The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interest.co.nz\/economic-calendar\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Economic Calendar here \u00bb<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Here&#8217;s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the US-Iran deal is&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":738970,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-738969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/738969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=738969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/738969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/738970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=738969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=738969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=738969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}