Welcome to our live coverage of today’s RBA interest rate decision. The cash rate announcement will be handed down at 2:30pm, with the RBA widely expected to hold rates steady. Stay tuned for predictions and reactions from economists and updates live from the press conference following the announcement.<\/p>\n
Jump to key updates<\/p>\n
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RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Picture: Getty<\/p>\n
RBA governor Bullock brushes off woes<\/p>\n
1:49 pm<\/p>\n
While Aussies aren\u2019t expected to be hit with another rate hike today, RBA governor Michele Bullock is continuing to toe a concerning line of messaging: rate rises could still be around the corner, and the bank will not be shying away from hard decisions.<\/p>\n
Ms Bullock reiterated her views at a scheduled appearance in front of the Senate Standing Committee on Economics earlier this month, warning the bank\u2019s recent rate hikes won\u2019t help bring inflation down in Australia until the Iran War formally ends.<\/p>\n
\u201cInflation is too high, and the board will do what it considers necessary,\u201d Ms Bullock told the committee. \u201cThe outlook is highly uncertain.\u201d<\/p>\n
The governor is expecting it will take one to two years for the three rate hikes to fully flow through the economy and has continued to flag the challenges the bank is having with forecast accuracy as international pressures intensify.<\/p>\n
Read more: https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/rba-sounds-alarm-on-rates-while-dismissing-stagflation-risks\/<\/a><\/p>\n Australia\u2019s four big banks expecting a hold on rates<\/p>\n 1:32 pm<\/p>\n All four of Australia\u2019s big banks are united in their expectation for a rate hold this afternoon, though the major lenders remain split on what sort of conditions Australians can expect as the second half of the year unfolds.<\/p>\n Commonwealth Bank, ANZ, National Australia Bank and Westpac say the bank will keep the cash rate at 4.35%, pausing its tightening cycle to see what effect its last three consecutive cuts are having on the ground.<\/p>\n Westpac is the outlier, with its economists expecting one more rate hike for 2026 in August. No more movement is expected this year by the other three and all are agreed the next move made by the RBA will be a cut rather than a hike.<\/p>\n A hold is also the forecast from many other smaller lenders, with downwards movement already seen on variable rate offerings in the last week as lender competition continues to heat up.<\/p>\n Read more: Rate confusion \u2013 The battle of economics ideas behind different rate forecasts<\/a><\/p>\n Home prices drop for a second month after consecutive interest rate hikes<\/p>\n 1:18 pm<\/p>\n National home prices dropped again in May after a fall in April, which was the first for 2026. Consecutive rate hikes this year have taken a toll on borrower confidence, with rising inflation also constricting borrowing powers and limiting the options available to would-be buyers.<\/p>\n National home prices dropped 0.04 over the month, reducing the national median home value to $908,000. Despite this, prices are still 7.5% higher than they were this time last year, with growth in regional areas the leading factor.<\/p>\n Sydney, Melbourne and Perth all saw small price declines in May, while Australia\u2019s most affordable capital, Darwin, saw the equal highest growth over the month at 0.3%. Tied with Darwin was market stronghold Adelaide, which has risen in recent years to become the nation\u2019s fourth priciest capital with a median price just shy of $1 million.<\/p>\n Prices are likely to continue to be soft this year if the RBA hikes the cash rate again, with investor pull back also expected.<\/p>\n Read more: PropTrack Home Price Index \u2013 May 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Unemployment rise a concern for RBA ahead of cash rate announcement<\/p>\n 1:01 pm<\/p>\n Rising inflation isn\u2019t all the RBA has to worry about, with the bank bound by its \u2018dual mandate\u2019, which also requires decisions to be made to support maintaining full employment.<\/p>\n New jobs data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier this month could force the RBA to hold off on more hikes, with the unemployment rate continuing to creep up more quickly than market forecasts expect.<\/p>\n The data shows the national unemployment rate jumped to 4.5% in April, with 19,000 fewer people employed compared with March. It was surprise news for markets, with general consensus the employment numbers would remain flat over the month.<\/p>\n If interest rates continue to rise, businesses are likely to slow down correspondingly, reducing hiring or potentially adding to unemployment, a scenario the RBA will likely be keen to avoid.<\/p>\n Read more: https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/major-development-could-pull-the-handbrake-on-rbas-rate-hike-spree\/<\/a><\/p>\n Consumer confidence low as RBA prepares to reveal interest rates decision<\/p>\n 12:46 pm<\/p>\n This afternoon\u2019s cash rate decision comes off the back of a major few weeks for households. The latest rate hike on 5 May was quickly followed by several major tax shake ups for property announced in the 2026 Federal Budget, including a revamp for negative gearing and changes to capital gains tax.<\/p>\n The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index shows price declines across the housing market and continuing hot inflation have since pushed public confidence down to one of the lowest levels on record.<\/p>\n The index fell 2.9% to 80.6 in June, down from 83 in May, with a reading of less than 100 indicating pessimists outnumber optimists among those surveyed.<\/p>\n Consumers will be looking to RBA governor Michele Bullock to provide a definitive outlook for the economy this afternoon, with the bank also keen to see consumers believe that low and stable inflation can be the norm for Australia.<\/p>\n Read more: Perfect storm: Budget tax changes, interest rates rattle market confidence<\/a><\/p>\n Economist prediction: No interest rate hike from the RBA<\/p>\n 12:32 pm<\/p>\n The Reserve Bank\u2019s monetary policy board is likely to hold the cash rate this afternoon, REA Group executive manager of economics Angus Moore says.<\/p>\n \u201cWe’re very unlikely to see a rate hike, even before oil prices moved lower yesterday,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile inflation is still too high, the RBA is likely to want to wait and see how the three hikes they’ve already put through are flowing through. And that’s particularly true given there are signs household spending is slowing and the housing market has also cleared slowed too.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr Moore added that final negotiations between the United States and Iran later this week could also deter lingering chances for a fourth rate hike.<\/p>\n \u201cThe announced peace deal, and the consequent fall in global oil prices, are also going to take some pressure off headline inflation, which will also give the RBA a little more comfort in holding this month.\u201d<\/p>\n Read more: The cities where house prices rose six times faster than inflation<\/a><\/p>\n Inflation soars as RBA doubles down<\/p>\n 12:16 pm<\/p>\n While Australia has seen three rate cuts and three rate hikes in 12 months, comparable economies like the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom have seen far less movement on the cash rate front across the same period.<\/p>\n Despite this, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser used a public appearance 10 days ago to say the bank does not regret its U-turn, adding it is easy to criticise central bank decisions with the benefit of hindsight.<\/p>\n Headline inflation rose 4.2% in the 12 months to April and is expected to peak this month, before slowly returning to within the RBA\u2019s 2-3% target range late next year, spelling trouble for the cash rate outlook for 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n The cash rate is likely to go up the longer it takes inflation to cool, and the main instigator of high inflation, the longer-term effects of the Iran War, will continue to linger. A rate hike this afternoon remains a possibility.<\/p>\n