{"id":739776,"date":"2026-06-16T08:41:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T08:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/739776\/"},"modified":"2026-06-16T08:41:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T08:41:09","slug":"bom-forecasts-strong-el-nino-and-warns-climate-change-could-amplify-effects-on-australia-el-nino-southern-oscillation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/739776\/","title":{"rendered":"BoM forecasts strong El Ni\u00f1o and warns climate change could amplify effects on Australia | El Ni\u00f1o southern oscillation"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 the phenomenon linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia \u2013 is now locked in place in the tropical Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

The bureau warned climate change would amplify the effects on Australia, including the risk of extreme heat and bushfires.<\/p>\n

In an update, the bureau said El Ni\u00f1o was now \u201cunderway in the tropical Pacific\u201d because the atmosphere was now reacting to the higher than average sea surface temperatures.<\/p>\n

The east to west trade winds were weakening and pressure and cloud patterns were consistent with El Ni\u00f1o, the BoM said.<\/p>\n

Forecasts were pointing to a strong or very strong event, the bureau said, adding the strength did not \u201cnecessarily mean strong impacts on Australia\u2019s climate\u201d.<\/p>\n

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The strength of El Ni\u00f1o events are gauged by sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the tropical Pacific and how much hotter they are than the long-term average.<\/p>\n

The bureau said past El Ni\u00f1o events had coincided with lower winter and spring rainfall, particularly in Australia\u2019s eastern half, higher daytime temperatures in the south and an increased frost risk because of clearer skies.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, in a warming climate, past patterns are less reliable as a predictor of future impacts,\u201d the bureau said.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o events are linked with extreme weather around the world and, for Australia, can increase the risk of bushfires and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.<\/p>\n

Felicity Gamble, the bureau\u2019s technical lead for extended prediction, said: \u201cWe have to keep in mind that we are in unprecedented conditions because of the global heat [in the oceans].\u201d<\/p>\n

She said the rise in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific had been \u201crapid\u201d in recent months and the bureau had been waiting to confirm the atmosphere had responded.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe see this event emerge in a world that is 1.5C hotter, and we are likely to see unprecedented temperatures in our oceans.<\/p>\n

\u201cClimate change will amplify those impacts that we anticipate, such as heat and fires. We are on the back of some reasonable rainfall in recent months so maybe we are not in such a bad starting point.\u201d<\/p>\n

The US government\u2019s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency have already declared the El Ni\u00f1o, but both use slightly different methods and thresholds for making the declaration than the bureau.<\/p>\n

Climate experts have warned the weather extremes linked to El Ni\u00f1o are being supercharged by global heating, with hotter temperatures, fiercer droughts and worse flooding.<\/p>\n

Experts also expect the El Ni\u00f1o to deliver a record warm year for the planet next year.<\/p>\n

The Climate Council said El Ni\u00f1o and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels were creating a \u201cdangerous double act\u201d for Australia.<\/p>\n

Amanda McKenzie, the council\u2019s chief executive, said the \u201cdouble whammy of climate pollution and El Ni\u00f1o will hit many of us hard\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany farmers are already dealing with drought conditions, while those on the urban bushland fringe are at even greater risk of dangerous fire conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared an El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 the phenomenon linked to hotter and drier…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":739777,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-739776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/739776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=739776"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/739776\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/739777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=739776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=739776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=739776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}