With the 2026 NHL Draft a week away, today I open the mailbag and answer your questions.<\/p>\n
Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.<\/p>\n
How likely does it seem that Gavin McKenna drops past No. 1, and where would he go if he does? \u2014 West P.<\/p>\n
Ten percent? I think Toronto likes Ivar Stenberg and Chase Reid a lot, but the sense I got at the combine is that McKenna is their guy. It\u2019s 50\/50 for the San Jose Sharks to take him at No. 2, and he doesn\u2019t get past the Vancouver Canucks at No. 3.<\/p>\n
Top 5 prospects after the NHL Draft Combine<\/p>\n
Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and more<\/p>\n
In an alternate universe, Alexander Zharovsky was ignored in last year\u2019s draft. Where do you rank him within the current crop of draft eligibles? \u2014 Seb M.<\/p>\n
Probably mid-first.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s been noted that the top end of this draft is below average. How does the top 50 stack up against other years? \u2014 Patrick N.<\/p>\n
Very typical. I\u2019ve been doing this so long that I very rarely notice massive differences in classes once you get past 20. Every class seems to have 25 to 35 good players and 8 to 12 really good ones. The biggest variation tends to be whether there are two to four legit stars or maybe just one.<\/p>\n
How do you evaluate a prospect\u2019s mental makeup, and does that factor into their ranking? There are dimensions to it, I\u2019d think, many of which might be projectable to the NHL. Are they an alpha-type? How do they perform under playoff-like intensity? How do they approach their own development and training regimen? \u2014 Kevin H.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve found there\u2019s usually a pretty strong relationship between character and how a player looks on the ice. The high-character guys play like it: hard, consistent, trusted. The low-character guys tend to do stuff that makes you shake your head. Not a perfect correlation, obviously, and you do other forms of off-ice research.<\/p>\n
Do you think the Sabres will continue drafting size, especially in their forward ranks, now that Jarmo Kek\u00e4l\u00e4inen is the GM? \u2014 thesudcoach<\/p>\n
When I think of Kek\u00e4l\u00e4inen\u2019s draft record, I\u2019ve always found that hockey sense has been his most leaned-on trait. That said, I do think the Sabres need some size in their prospect pool.<\/p>\n
If you had to compare this year\u2019s top six expected defensemen in the draft to 2024\u2019s, which class is better, and why? \u2014 Rick A.<\/p>\n
Going into 2024, compared to going into this draft, I probably liked 2024 more. With the benefit of hindsight and how some of those guys have developed the past two years, I would take 2026\u2019s group.<\/p>\n
1. If McKenna had simply stayed in the WHL and finished with 150-plus points (given his 129 last season), would he be the runaway favorite to be the No. 1 pick with fewer questions about his potential?<\/p>\n
2. Since he is the first \u201cbig name\u201d player to make the jump in his draft year like this, it seems like it\u2019s the start of a new era. Are some of the critiques about his play perhaps due to him being the first to do this? For example, if another player has a very similar development to McKenna in a few years, will their play be questioned as hard? Or will there be a realistic high-tier of performance that draft year players might reach in the NCAA against stronger competition, similar to how Stenberg\u2019s performance in the SHL has been viewed? \u2014 Ryan H.<\/p>\n
1. Probably. But we\u2019d have worse data about his projection to higher levels, and he\u2019d be poorer.<\/p>\n
2. No, these critiques are not new. I remember going to his U17 Challenge and Hlinka Gretzky, where he laid eggs, and his U18 worlds, where he was as dynamic a player as I\u2019ve seen in years.<\/p>\n
With the NCAA NIL changes drawing more top-end talent to the college ranks, how challenging has it been to evaluate guys in the CHL relative to previous years, and how have you and others in the scouting space calibrated for the change in talent levels? What\u2019s the hardest aspect to evaluate because of the change, and which players do you think have the widest range of outcomes because of it? \u2014 Anonymous U.<\/p>\n
It definitely felt like the WHL was down this year compared to other years, and it also feels like this is only going to compound in future seasons as more players are making the NCAA part of their plans one or two years in advance. You look at some of the numbers guys put up in the WHL, and you see where I have them rated as prospects, it is a bit different, although not dramatically.<\/p>\n
The Calgary Flames and St. Louis Blues have a surplus of draft capital. What are some options to move up in the draft that would make sense for those teams and their trade partners? \u2014 Lloyd W.<\/p>\n
I mostly think trade discussion around the draft is a waste of effort, but both teams have legit needs for a top center prospect, and they might only need to move up one or two spots to secure one (or not at all, but it would be rolling the dice) of Caleb Malhotra or Viggo Bj\u00f6rck.<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t see how Vancouver can draft the son of their head coach<\/a>. Do you think it is more likely Malhotra will go No. 2 or 4 (or even drop to No. 5)? \u2014 Guillaume F.<\/p>\n Caleb, who\u2019s committed to Boston University, is going to need one, if not two, years of college hockey. If Manny is still there by season three, it would be historic by recent Canucks standards.<\/p>\n If any top players were going to drop to the eighth or ninth picks, who could it be? \u2014 Dan N.<\/p>\n It feels like Keaton Verhoeff is going to slide.<\/p>\n Most years, it seems there is a shocker somewhere in the top 10 (more often even top five). Who do you see as the \u201cshockers\u201d in the top 10, 11-20 and 21-32? \u2014 Michael M.<\/p>\n Gleb Pugachyov, Brooks Rogowski and Ryder Cali could go a lot higher than people expect. I would have said Maksim Sokolovskii, but I think that secret is out. Jonas Lagerberg Hoen also has big believers in the league.<\/p>\n How would you compare McKenna to a player like Will Smith, knowing now that Smith is an NHL winger? I would think similar attribute grade: high-end skill\/creativity\/sense, but average skater, average or below-average compete and can frustrate coaches at times (playing to the outside, giveaways, not going to win puck battles at NHL level). \u2014 Charlie T.<\/p>\n Very similarly. McKenna\u2019s skill is a notch higher, and Smith is a bit bigger, but otherwise, I think their games are highly comparable.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t see Ben Macbeath in your top 113<\/a>. Oversight, or you really don\u2019t have him as one of the top 113 players in this draft? \u2014 Mark M.<\/p>\n Macbeath and London Knights forward Jaxon Cover were two guys I struggled with this season for the same reasons. Both are 6-foot-2 and can skate, but I don\u2019t see great IQ or compete in either. They have the aesthetics of an NHL player and will probably go second or third round, but I just don\u2019t see their games translating.<\/p>\n Who is your favorite NHL player? Not necessarily the best, but the player archetype you like the most. This does not have to be \u201cif you were a GM, what would you do?\u201d Instead, I\u2019m just curious about your personal preference and what style of hockey you like to watch the most. \u2014 CandidateID_44<\/p>\n Probably Nathan MacKinnon. Special skater, plays like he\u2019s shot out of a cannon with his speed and compete. He makes plays. He\u2019s deadly skilled. He\u2019s a driven competitor.<\/p>\n How much emphasis do teams put on drafting the best player available versus team need when analyzing upcoming drafts? For example, the Canucks need help everywhere, especially up the middle, but the 2027 right now looks center-heavy. I know one can\u2019t predict how the 2027 draft class will play out this early, but the Canucks will be terrible and should have a very high pick again next year; thus, best player available would make more sense this year. \u2014 Frank E.<\/p>\n I think teams mostly stick to BPA, and positions can be a tie breaker, but I think fans misunderstand what BPA means. Teams will value centers and defensemen a lot higher than the public does because of the lack of trade\/free agency avenues to acquire high-end players at those positions. For a lot of teams, a 50-point two-way center is a better player than a 70-point one-way winger.<\/p>\n Analytics questions here. What kind of analytics tools are used by scouts? Is there some platform like NHL Edge that provides advanced analytics based on, say, video footage? What is analyzed? And how is a baseline trajectory created to compare player development to and determine whether he\u2019s ahead or behind their peers? \u2014 Anonymous U.<\/p>\n Most teams use platforms like InStat or Sportslogiq to get their advanced data on prospects.<\/p>\n Why don\u2019t we ever see trades at the top of the draft? There seem to be clear matches between the Rangers, Blackhawks and Sharks for each to address their needs. But I can\u2019t help feeling we will watch the next couple of weeks play out with many rumors and nothing actually happening. \u2014 Ian M.<\/p>\n My gut instinct is job preservation. If you make a trade, you are judged not only on the pick you made but also on the pick you traded.<\/p>\n The Athletic and FloHockey have partnered to bring fans a live 2026 NHL Draft show. Hosted by Max Bultman and featuring experts Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Chris Peters, The Athletic x FloHockey NHL Draft Live will livestream during the entire first round. Tune in June 26 at 7 p.m. ET on The Athletic Hockey Show<\/a>\u2019s YouTube channel, across FloHockey<\/a>\u2019s platforms, and on Amazon Prime (U.S.) and Fubo (Canada).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With the 2026 NHL Draft a week away, today I open the mailbag and answer your questions. 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