{"id":747580,"date":"2026-06-19T22:24:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T22:24:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/747580\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T22:24:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T22:24:11","slug":"bia-mesquita-submission-prop-is-the-ufc-vegas-119-lock-best-bet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/747580\/","title":{"rendered":"Bia Mesquita submission prop is the UFC Vegas 119 lock\/best bet"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC Vegas 119<\/a> is less than 24 hours away \u2026<\/p>\n

It all goes down this weekend (Sat., June 20, 2026) inside the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, Manel Kape returns to action in a rematch nine years in the making<\/a> against Japanese star Kyoji Horiguchi.<\/p>\n

We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com<\/a> called \u201cWeekend Lock,\u201d where we share one bet that we predict will slap in \u201cSin City\u201d when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that\u2019s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 119 betting lock<\/a> in the comments section below (see full UFC Vegas 119 odds here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s recap:<\/a> Well, Sean O\u2019Malley got back to his finishing ways, and he knocked out Aiemann Zahabi, who had been finished since 2017 (watch it here<\/a>) \u2014 I obviously didn\u2019t see that coming. FML.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s keep rolling below:<\/p>\n

\"RIO<\/a><\/p>\n

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – OCTOBER 11: Bia Mesquita of Brazil secures a rear choke submission against Irina Alekseeva of Kazakstan in a bantamweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Farmasi Arena on October 11, 2025 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Photo by Ed Mulholland\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

On the UFC Vegas 119 prelims, decorated jiu-jitsu ace Bia Mesquita takes on Melissa Mullins in what feels like a showcase opportunity for one of the most accomplished grapplers to ever step foot inside the Octagon.<\/p>\n

This week, I\u2019m locking in Mesquita vs. Mullins to end via submission at -110<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Honestly, I\u2019m shocked these odds aren\u2019t significantly higher.<\/p>\n

Mesquita has looked exactly like what she is: one of the greatest pure Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitors<\/a> ever to transition into MMA. Through six professional victories, she owns a 100 percent finish rate, and four of those have come by submission.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not a coincidence.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a skill set so overwhelming that opponents eventually find themselves trapped.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s even more impressive is what she\u2019s done to her recent competition. Mesquita\u2019s last two opponents had never been submitted before stepping into the cage with her.<\/p>\n

Then they fought Mesquita (watch highlights<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Now Mullins enters with a similar distinction. She\u2019s never been submitted as a professional.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re sensing a pattern, so am I.<\/p>\n

Stylistically, this feels like a mismatch. Mesquita doesn\u2019t just possess good grappling \u2014 she possesses all-time great grappling. Once she establishes position, she advances methodically and forces mistakes. Few fighters on the roster possess the technical ability to survive there.<\/p>\n

Frankly, the UFC should already be matching her against Top 10 competition<\/a>. Mesquita is older than the typical prospect and doesn\u2019t need developmental fights. The promotion should be fast-tracking her to determine exactly how high her ceiling is against elite opposition.<\/p>\n

Instead, she\u2019s getting Mullins.<\/p>\n

And while Mullins deserves credit for reaching the UFC, she hasn\u2019t been particularly impressive during her run. She\u2019s also missed weight twice<\/a>, raising additional questions about preparation and discipline at the highest level.<\/p>\n

The biggest risk is that Mullins recognizes the danger and fights ultra-defensively, forcing Mesquita to win minutes rather than hunt submissions. There\u2019s also the possibility that Mesquita just pounds her out for a knockout win.<\/p>\n

Still, given Mesquita\u2019s submission record, her elite credentials, and her recent habit of submitting fighters who had never previously tapped, Mesquita vs. Mullins to end by submission (-110) feels like one of the best values on the UFC Vegas 119 card.<\/p>\n

Bia Mesquita To Win By KO\/TKO\/DQ: +450<\/a>
Bia Mesquita To Win By Submission: -110<\/a>
Bia Mesquita To Win By Decision: +275<\/a>
Melissa Mullins To Win By KO\/TKO\/DQ: +1100<\/a>
Melissa Mullins by Submission: +3500<\/a>
Melissa Mullins To Win By Decision: +750<\/a><\/p>\n

To checkout the latest UFC Vegas 119 fight card and rumors click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UFC Vegas 119 is less than 24 hours away \u2026 It all goes down this weekend (Sat., June…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":747581,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,1396,179146,85770,19458,19457,7990],"class_list":["post-747580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-prelims","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/747580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=747580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/747580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/747581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=747580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=747580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=747580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}