{"id":753288,"date":"2026-06-22T17:21:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T17:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/753288\/"},"modified":"2026-06-22T17:21:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T17:21:26","slug":"marinus-link-is-in-the-national-interest-despite-cost-economist-saul-eslake-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/753288\/","title":{"rendered":"Marinus Link is in the ‘national interest’ despite cost, economist Saul Eslake says"},"content":{"rendered":"

The multi-billion-dollar Marinus Link interconnector across Bass Strait will shore up Tasmania’s energy security and break the “deadlock” hobbling the state’s energy sector development, according to a report defending the project.<\/p>\n

The report by independent economist Saul Eslake, for Clean Energy Tasmania, follows another analysis released last week, which concluded the business case for Marinus Link appeared increasingly unviable due to technology and market developments.<\/p>\n

Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean also recently questioned the project’s viability, after Singapore-based AI infrastructure company Firmus flagged three sites across the state’s north for AI data centre developments.<\/p>\n

Shovels are already in the ground for Firmus’s Launceston-based “green AI campus” powered by Tasmanian energy, 100 megawatts of which it has already secured.<\/p>\n

Mr Eslake said although Marinus Link has been poorly sold by the state and federal governments, the project remained in the national and Tasmanian interest.<\/p>\n

AI factory ‘brings into doubt’ Marinus Link future<\/a><\/p>\n

Tasmania’s cool climate and access to renewable energy has made it an attractive place for AI data centre investment, but energy industry voices are warning that AI may make the Marinus Link business case unviable.<\/p>\n

He said prospective energy intensive investors in the state would have greater confidence they would get the supply they require when Marinus Link came online.<\/p>\n

“It will help break the deadlock that’s existed in Tasmania for more than a decade,” Mr Eslake said.<\/p>\n

The catch 22 the state currently finds itself in, Mr Eslake said, was that without greater energy generation capacity it was difficult to persuade energy intensive users to set up in Tasmania.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Tasmania has also struggled to persuade potential new sources of energy generation to invest in the state, due to a lack of confidence that there would be demand for their output.<\/p>\n

The last time new electricity generation was added in Tasmania was the Granville Harbour Wind Farm in 2020.<\/p>\n

By providing a 750-megawatt cable between Tasmania and the National Electricity Market (NEM), with plans for a second 750-megawatt cable in the future, Marinus Link created opportunity for both new demand and new supply, Mr Eslake said.<\/p>\n

Loading…<\/p>\n

The electricity interconnector between Tasmania and Victoria is a jointly owned project between the state and federal governments, spruiked as a “clean energy highway” that will strengthen Australia’s national energy grid.<\/p>\n

Tasmania’s current 500-megawatt interconnector to the mainland, Basslink, failed in 2015, plunging the state into a prolonged energy crisis<\/a> compounded by low hydro-electric storage levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Costs for Marinus Link have blown out in the years since it was first pitched following the energy crisis, attracting criticism from Tasmania’s independent and crossbench MPs over transparency around the final investment decision<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Stage one of Marinus Link is projected to be completed by 2030.<\/p>\n

\"An<\/p>\n

Sandy Point construction site for the Marinus Link project in South Gippsland, Victoria, where a conduit for the cable will be built between beach dunes. (Supplied: Marinus Link)<\/p>\n

An outlet for energy sell-off if Liberty Bell Bay fails<\/p>\n

Mr Eslake acknowledged the project had its faults.<\/p>\n

“The government hasn’t done a particularly good job of selling it,” he said.<\/p>\n

“The business case and the documents they’ve put out in support of it have been, in some ways, more heavily redacted than the Epstein files.<\/p>\n

“And they have made claims that it will result in lower prices, which the public understandably finds very hard to believe.”<\/p>\n

But, despite the project’s “significant costs” with the subsea cable and accompanying North-West Transmission Line coming in at just under $5 billion, Mr Eslake said without it, the state faced further power shortage risks when Basslink reached its end of life in 2046.<\/p>\n

“I think there will be a return to Tasmania from the amounts of money that Tasmania itself will be putting in, which as I said, is less than 95 per cent of the construction costs,” he said.<\/p>\n

Mr Eslake also said if major industrials like Liberty Bell Bay were to leave the state, Marinus Link would provide an outlet for their energy requirements to be sold to Victorian consumers, potentially at higher prices than Hydro Tasmania would get for selling it at home.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

The cable will run undersea for about 255 kilometres and about 90 kilometres underground to the Latrobe Valley, in Victoria. (Supplied: Marinus Link)<\/p>\n

Marinus Link chief stakeholder Claire Gleghorn said the project had already delivered measurable benefits to Tasmania’s north-west.<\/p>\n

“The benefits are already being realised, with locals employed now and Tasmanian business contracts at 14 and counting,” Ms Gleghorn said.<\/p>\n

But energy researchers are split on the project’s merits.<\/p>\n

A report published last week by the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, and commissioned by the Bob Brown Foundation, concluded the project would “impose very large needless costs on electricity consumers and taxpayers”.<\/p>\n

And, with the rapid deployment of grid-scale batteries across the National Electricity Market (NEM), the economic rationale for deep storage of Tasmania’s hydro-electricity no longer held up, it found.<\/p>\n

\"An<\/p>\n

The water from Tasmania’s Lake Gordon generates hydro-electricity in Hydro Tasmania’s Gordon Power Station. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)<\/p>\n

Mr Eslake said he believed batteries would not be capable of providing energy on commercially viable terms for the foreseeable future, and Tasmania’s unique advantages in generating and storing hydro-electricity could be exploited.<\/p>\n

While he acknowledged power prices for Tasmanian consumers would inevitably rise, Mr Eslake said Tasmanians will get cheaper electricity than they otherwise would without Marinus Link, by importing wind and solar from Victoria when it was cheaper than hydro-electricity.<\/p>\n

Tasmanian Energy Minister Nick Duigan said Mr Eslake’s report confirmed the state government’s position that the project would create jobs and lower energy prices.<\/p>\n

The Tasmanian government formally approved the project last August<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Close<\/p>\n

Marinus Link says the project will help generate jobs in Tasmania and Victoria. (Supplied: Marinus Link)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The multi-billion-dollar Marinus Link interconnector across Bass Strait will shore up Tasmania’s energy security and break the “deadlock”…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":753289,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[361187,64,63,361185,19161,277395,361186,142083,30555,30556,30560,44,125073,19158,44706,2801],"class_list":["post-753288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-ai-data-centre","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-basslink","tag-electricity","tag-firmus","tag-hydroelectricity","tag-link","tag-marinus","tag-marinus-link","tag-nem","tag-news","tag-nick-duigan","tag-renewables","tag-saul-eslake","tag-tasmania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/753288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=753288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/753288\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/753289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=753288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=753288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=753288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}