{"id":769032,"date":"2026-06-30T03:09:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T03:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/769032\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T03:09:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T03:09:14","slug":"afl-2026-most-important-games-left-on-fixture-for-finals-race-run-home-analysis-wildcard-contenders-round-17-and-round-18-biggest-games","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/769032\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL 2026: Most important games left on fixture for finals race, run home analysis, wildcard contenders, Round 17 and Round 18 biggest games"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019ve officially started the AFL finals race, with all teams having just eight games left, and the next fortnight is expected to shape the first ever top 10 finals series.<\/p>\n<p>There are 14 genuine contenders to make the post-season, after the league expanded the finals with the addition of a wildcard round from 2026 onwards.<\/p>\n<p>Watch every match of every round of the AFL Premiership Season LIVE and ad-break free during play on FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? <a href=\"https:\/\/kayosports.com.au\/en-AU\/welcome\/afl?extcamp=fsaeditoriallinkafl-edt-fsp-lnk-awr-grc-afl-kyo&amp;channel=fsa&amp;campaign=fsacontra\" title=\"kayosports.com.au\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Join now and get your first month for just $1<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/poster-fallback.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The wildcard round will see 7th play 10th and 8th face 9th across the weekend of August 28-30, while the top six teams have a bye, before the eight-team finals format we\u2019re used to begins on the weekend of September 4-6.<\/p>\n<p>More teams in contention for the finals means more important games, and Rounds 17 and 18 have eight crucial match-ups that\u2019ll shape September, as highlighted by Fox Footy\u2019s On the Couch.<\/p>\n<p>Those include this weekend\u2019s Grand Final rematch at GMHBA Stadium between Geelong and Brisbane, and next week\u2019s top-of-the-table clash at Optus Stadium between Fremantle and Sydney.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile the wildcard race will be determined by games like Gold Coast vs Collingwood this week, and Collingwood vs North Melbourne next week.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a couple of teams there recognised in both of the next two rounds &#8211; Hawthorn, Sydney, Gold Coast, Collingwood,\u201d Collingwood great Nathan Buckley said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019re really playing for your season, even this far out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>THE SEPTEMBER-SHAPING FORTNIGHT<\/p>\n<p>Round 17<\/p>\n<p>Geelong (4th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th) at GMHBA Stadium, 7:30pm Thursday July 2<\/p>\n<p>Sydney Swans (2nd) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at the SCG, 7:40pm Friday July 3<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn (3rd) vs Melbourne (7th) at UTAS Stadium, 1:15pm Saturday July 4 [Fox Footy exclusive]<\/p>\n<p>Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Collingwood (10th) at People First Stadium, 4:15pm Saturday July 4 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]<\/p>\n<p>Round 18<\/p>\n<p>Fremantle (1st) vs Sydney Swans (2nd) at Optus Stadium, 8:10pm Thursday July 9<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood (10th) vs North Melbourne (9th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm Friday July 10<\/p>\n<p>Carlton (12th) vs Hawthorn (3rd) at the MCG, 7:35pm Saturday July 11 [Fox Footy exclusive]<\/p>\n<p>Adelaide Crows (6th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at Adelaide Oval, 8:10pm Saturday July 11<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood-Gold Coast this week, and Hawthorn-Carlton next week, will define the top 10 race.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n<p>Brisbane coach Chris Fagan said last week \u201cif you want to be in a chance to win it, you\u2019ve got to finish top six\u201d, based on the wildcard teams needing to win five finals in a row to win the premiership.<\/p>\n<p>That seems extremely unlikely but, as Lions great Jonathan Brown warned, realistically the defining line between the contenders and the non-contenders remains the top four.<\/p>\n<p>The Lions won the flag after finishing fifth in 2024, but they and the 2016 Bulldogs (who finished seventh) are still the exception and not the rule.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve forgotten about it a little bit, the importance of top four &#8211; with the wildcard now people are talking about top six,\u201d Brown said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019ve still got to get the double chance, which is top four, so it feels like it\u2019s a race there where it\u2019s so tight between fourth and ninth.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>Freo charge to top of Premiership Window | 02:30<\/p>\n<p>AFL ladder after Round 16<\/p>\n<p>1. Fremantle (56 pts)<\/p>\n<p>2. Sydney Swans (48)<\/p>\n<p>3. Hawthorn (42)<\/p>\n<p>4. Geelong (36)<\/p>\n<p>5. Brisbane Lions (36)<\/p>\n<p>6. Adelaide Crows (36)<\/p>\n<p>7. Melbourne (36)<\/p>\n<p>8. Western Bulldogs (36)<\/p>\n<p>9. North Melbourne (32)<\/p>\n<p>10. Collingwood (30)<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>11. Gold Coast Suns (28)<\/p>\n<p>12. Carlton (28)<\/p>\n<p>13. St Kilda (24)<\/p>\n<p>14. GWS Giants (24)<\/p>\n<p>15. Port Adelaide (20)<\/p>\n<p>16. West Coast Eagles (16)<\/p>\n<p>17. Richmond (8)<\/p>\n<p>18. Essendon (4)<\/p>\n<p>While only percentage separates the 4th-placed Cats and 8th-placed Bulldogs, Hawthorn champion Jordan Lewis believes the current order is very reflective of the premiership race.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI know it\u2019s tight, but you can\u2019t really see at the end of the season much change between that ladder and what we\u2019ll see come finals,\u201d Lewis said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/afl-2026-the-run-home-after-round-16-predicted-ladder-top-10-and-finals-matchups-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture-latest-news\/news-story\/9ba8644f710e073901769660cedab5c5\" title=\"www.foxsports.com.au\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Fox Footy\u2019s The Run Home column<\/a> agrees, tipping the current top eight to finish in order, based on the number of projected wins for each team.<\/p>\n<p>The changes would come in 9th, where Carlton is projected to replace North Melbourne, while Collingwood hangs onto 10th.<\/p>\n<p>However the Magpies face the Kangaroos, Suns and Blues over the next three weeks which will determine their fate.<\/p>\n<p>The Suns, likewise, have a crucial period coming up facing the Magpies, Crows, Bulldogs, Blues and Demons &#8211; all direct competitors for places in the bottom half of the ten.<\/p>\n<p>BIGGEST GAMES TO COME AFTER THAT<\/p>\n<p>Round 19<\/p>\n<p>Sydney Swans (2nd) vs Adelaide Crows (6th) at the SCG, 7:40pm Friday July 17<\/p>\n<p>North Melbourne (9th) vs Melbourne (7th) at Marvel Stadium, 4:15pm Saturday July 18 [Fox Footy exclusive]<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood (10th) vs Carlton (12th) at the MCG, 7:35pm Saturday July 18 [Fox Footy exclusive]<\/p>\n<p>Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at People First Stadium, 3:15pm Sunday July 19<\/p>\n<p>Round 20<\/p>\n<p>Adelaide Crows (6th) vs Collingwood (10th) at Adelaide Oval, 7:30pm Thursday July 23<\/p>\n<p>Melbourne (7th) vs Geelong (4th) at the MCG, 7:40pm Friday July 24<\/p>\n<p>Carlton (12th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at Marvel Stadium, 1:05pm Saturday July 25 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]<\/p>\n<p>GWS Giants (14th) vs Sydney Swans (2nd) at ENGIE Stadium, 4:35pm Saturday July 25<\/p>\n<p>Round 21<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood (10th) vs Geelong (4th) at the MCG, 7:30pm Thursday July 30<\/p>\n<p>Fremantle (1st) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at Optus Stadium, 8:10pm Friday July 31<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn (3rd) vs North Melbourne (9th) at UTAS Stadium, 1:35pm Saturday August 1 [Fox Footy exclusive]<\/p>\n<p>Carlton (12th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:40pm Saturday August 1 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]<\/p>\n<p>Gold Coast Suns (11th) vs Melbourne (7th) at People First Stadium, 3:15pm Sunday August 2<\/p>\n<p>Round 22<\/p>\n<p>Western Bulldogs (8th) vs North Melbourne (9th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:30pm Thursday August 6<\/p>\n<p>Brisbane Lions (5th) vs Hawthorn (3rd) at the Gabba, 7:40pm Friday August 7<\/p>\n<p>Melbourne (7th) vs Fremantle (1st) at the MCG, 1:15pm Saturday August 8 [Fox Footy exclusive in Victoria]<\/p>\n<p>St Kilda (13th) vs Carlton (12th) at Marvel Stadium, 7:20pm Sunday August 9<\/p>\n<p>Round 23 (times, dates TBC)<\/p>\n<p>Brisbane Lions (5th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at the Gabba<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn (3rd) vs Collingwood (10th) at the MCG<\/p>\n<p>North Melbourne (9th) vs Geelong (4th) at Marvel Stadium<\/p>\n<p>Western Bulldogs (8th) vs Carlton (12th) at Marvel Stadium<\/p>\n<p>Fremantle (1st) vs Adelaide Crows (6th) at Optus Stadium<\/p>\n<p>Round 24 (times, dates TBC)<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood (10th) vs Brisbane Lions (5th) at the MCG<\/p>\n<p>Carlton (12th) vs Fremantle (1st) at Marvel Stadium<\/p>\n<p>Melbourne (7th) vs Western Bulldogs (8th) at the MCG<\/p>\n<p>St Kilda (13th) vs Gold Coast Suns (11th) at Marvel Stadium<\/p>\n<p>Sydney Swans (2nd) vs North Melbourne (9th) at the SCG<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We\u2019ve officially started the AFL finals race, with all teams having just eight games left, and the next&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":769033,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-769032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=769032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/769032\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/769033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=769032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=769032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=769032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}