{"id":773057,"date":"2026-07-01T23:27:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T23:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/773057\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T23:27:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T23:27:12","slug":"property-prices-australia-housing-market-enters-ninth-downturn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/773057\/","title":{"rendered":"Property prices Australia: Housing market enters ninth downturn"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Australian property market<\/a> has entered its ninth downturn, but the history books offer hope for hard-pressed vendors.<\/p>\n

New analysis released today by Domain forecasts the country\u2019s two biggest property markets would be hit hardest, with Sydney house prices<\/a> falling 7 per cent and Melbourne by 8 per cent in the new financial year.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Domain data says the housing market has officially entered its ninth downturn.\u00a0Peter Rae SMH<\/p>\n

While would-be buyers are exposed to borrowing constraints in these markets, prices in more affordable Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are expected to keep growing. <\/p>\n

House values have been taking a caning during past months due to three consecutive interest rates, changes to capital gains tax<\/a> and negative gearing, as well as the impact to consumer confidence of the US-Iran war.<\/p>\n

The market is now sliding into its ninth slump in 30 years, leaving vendors asking should they hold off selling, while buyers are wondering if it\u2019s the best time to purchase.<\/p>\n

A look at what happened in previous housing downturns offers the answers.<\/p>\n

It shows recovery followed every of the past eight, and when the uptick happened it not only reversed losses but propelled prices to new heights.<\/p>\n

Typically, downturns have typically been short and contained, averaging a 2.9 per cent decline over about eight months. By contrast, upswings have been longer and significantly stronger, delivering 32 per cent growth on average for nearly three years.<\/p>\n

Despite today\u2019s gloomy outlook, the scale of the price falls remain modest in historical context.<\/p>\n

For home values across the combined capitals to slump to their last low in March 2023, they\u2019d need to drop by about 22 per cent, the research found.<\/p>\n

Domain chief residential economist Nicola Powell says interest rate, buyers\u2019 borrowing capacity and market confidence are likely to decide when the new downturn ends.<\/p>\n

\u201cDownturns can feel sharp in real time, but historically they\u2019ve been short and shallow, and have not unwound the gains that preceded them,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen the interest rate cycle turns, demand that has been sitting on the sidelines tends to return quickly, bringing the next phase of growth forward.\u201d<\/p>\n

House values facing $100,000 drop, bank predicts<\/p>\n

Major banks are all predicting housing prices<\/a> to fall around the country in a national slowing of the property market<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The federal budget\u2019s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, along with still-high interest rates, have already helped push clearances down, with Cotality yesterday reporting a clearance rate of 47 per cent in capital cities last week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A market correction could see homes in some of the nation’s biggest markets drop by $100,000 or more.\u00a0Supplied<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the lowest it\u2019s been since the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

Now, major banks are predicting house prices will follow the plunge, with some forecasting a $100,000 drop on house values in Sydney and Melbourne.<\/p>\n

NAB predicts a 6 per cent drop in Sydney<\/a> and a 7 per cent drop in Melbourne<\/a> for the rest of the year, as part of a national 2 per cent drop.<\/p>\n

According to some modelling, this could knock just over $100,000 off the median value of a Sydney house of about $1.75 million.<\/p>\n

AMP and the Commonwealth Bank are both predicting the housing market to fall five per cent nationally into early 2027.<\/p>\n

ANZ is predicting a five per cent fall through to next year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n

AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said the fall in prices was not the sign of a weakened economy, but a corrective to runaway housing values.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe expected slowing in home prices is not enough in itself to generate a serious economic downturn in Australia,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n

\u201cLower wealth growth will limit household spending but this is also helpful to get inflation to be a bit lower. It could make the RBA\u2019s job a little easier.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Australian property market has entered its ninth downturn, but the history books offer hope for hard-pressed vendors.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":773058,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-773057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=773057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773057\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/773058"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=773057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=773057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=773057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}