Red meat is displayed at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 12, 2026, in New York City. <\/p>\n
Spencer Platt | Getty Images<\/p>\n
With oil and gas prices falling <\/a>in the wake of the detente between the U.S. and Iran<\/a>, prediction market traders now think inflation has peaked.\u00a0<\/p>\n Speculators on prediction market<\/a> platform Kalshi<\/a> think there’s only a 28% chance that headline inflation this year climbs above 4.2%, the annual rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index in May<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n The next CPI report, measuring inflation in June, is due for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on July 14. <\/p>\n The contract on Kalshi asks if traders think CPI will deliver a reading above various percentages in 2026. Contracts are resolved using the CPI data released each month by the BLS. \u00a0<\/p>\n The inflation outlook has eased primarily due to recent declines in its main driver: energy prices. After shooting higher<\/a> after the start of the U.S.-Iran war in late February and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, gas and oil prices have started to retreat after the partial reopening of the waterway.<\/p>\n Average national gasoline prices as of Wednesday stood at $3.84, according to AAA, down from more than $4.50 at their peak. That reflects weaker U.S. crude oil prices, which have fallen below $70 per barrel<\/a> for the first time since the war began.\u00a0<\/p>\n