\n But for the past few months, it\u2019s been looking like a thaw is underway<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n US employment growth has surpassed expectations, adding an average of 188,000 jobs per month since March.\n <\/p>\n \n It\u2019s a stark turnaround from last year<\/a>, when monthly gains averaged fewer than 10,000 jobs (or, roughly one-twentieth of what we\u2019re seeing now); and it comes across all the more impressive considering the backdrop of a volatile war in the Middle East and a massive oil shock that heated up inflation<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n It seems the labor market may have stabilized, and June\u2019s jobs report \u2013 which is set to be released on Thursday, one day early, due to the July 4 holiday \u2013 could provide some important clues as to how much it\u2019s actually heating back up \u2013 and not just by creating jobs but by creating better jobs.\n <\/p>\n \n Here are a few metrics to key in on when the latest data drops:\n <\/p>\n Will job gains stay strong and will unemployment fall?<\/p>\n \n It seems almost pedestrian to lead with, \u201chey, look at the total payroll growth and the unemployment rate\u201d as a gauge on the labor market\u2019s health. But these metrics are the headliners for a reason. They provide a nice, quick snapshot of economic conditions.\n <\/p>\n \n In May, the economy added an estimated 172,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% for the third month in a row.\n <\/p>\n \n FactSet\u2019s consensus estimates have June\u2019s job gains at 100,000 and the jobless rate extending its 4.3% streak by another month. However, economists\u2019 individual estimates vary widely: Some are expecting job growth close to 200,000 while others project a tepid total of 35,000 or under.\n <\/p>\n \n Joe Brusuelas, RSM US\u2019 senior economist, is in the first camp. He\u2019s expecting 180,000 jobs added and for the unemployment rate to dip to 4.2% \u2013 likely indicating an improvement of economic health.\n <\/p>\n \n Three factors are impacting that outlook: One, a pickup in hiring in goods-producing and construction businesses tied to AI datacenter buildout and capital expenditures; two, sustained growth in healthcare jobs as the US population gets older; and three, a largely World Cup-driven lift in transportation and leisure and hospitality employment.\n <\/p>\n \n Even if there is a World Cup boost<\/a> (that would drop off come July or August), Brusuelas said he believes the labor market has pivoted toward acceleration.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAnything above 50 (thousand jobs added), I\u2019m very happy about,\u201d he told CNN in an interview.\n <\/p>\n \n Workers\u2019 pay gains have slowed from their pandemic hiring frenzy highs and are running at an annual rate of 3.4%, roughly what was seen in the summer of 2019.\n <\/p>\n \n The problem now is that prices are rising at more than double the rate then, and inflation (at 4.2%<\/a>) is well outpacing wage growth.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWage growth does not turn around quickly, but if we continue to see strong employment growth, there should be some uptick in the rate of wage growth,\u201d Dean Baker, economist and co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.\n <\/p>\n \n The expectations are that pay gains shouldn\u2019t fall further behind on their own in June. FactSet estimates show a pickup to 3.5%, while separate data released Wednesday by payroll giant ADP indicated that the median pay gain for \u201cjob-stayers\u201d held at 4.4%, while job-changers accelerated to 6.6% from 6.5% in May.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAll told, this is a good sign of stability,\u201d Nela Richardson, ADP\u2019s chief economist, told reporters in a call on Wednesday.\n <\/p>\n \n The healthcare industry has been the labor market stalwart<\/a>, powering the bulk of employment gains, and in the process, highlighting the sheer power of shifting demographics.\n <\/p>\n \n In recent months, other sectors have started to bounce back: In May, as in April and March, more industries were adding jobs than losing them.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIf (June) is a bad report, what one would expect is a reversion to where the pickup in hiring was almost exclusively driven by [healthcare] and flat to negative elsewhere,\u201d Brusuelas said. \u201cThat would suggest that we just saw a temporary, three-month mirage in hiring.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n ADP\u2019s June employment report<\/a> released Wednesday showed a slowing in employment growth at US private-sector firms to 98,000 from 122,000 the month before. It also showed a return to the over-concentration in healthcare versus more broad-based hiring in May.\n <\/p>\n \n ADP\u2019s Richardson said she had been \u201creally excited by the May report, because we got contributions from almost every industry.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n It seemed as if this \u201clow-hire, low-fire\u201d labor market<\/a> was finally becoming more dynamic, she added.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWe didn\u2019t get that [in June], but what we got was a lot of stability,\u201d she said. \u201cAnd maybe given everything \u2013 all the crosswinds, and AI effects, and demographic effects, and global effects that could be impacting things \u2013 we should take some stability as we end the first half of the year.\u201d\n <\/p>\n![\"Fans](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/gettyimages-2280597089.jpg\")
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