Those predictions come from a list of 12 criteria that the committee has said it uses to pick the field of 68.<\/p>\n
The criteria are:<\/p>\n
Bad losses<\/p>\n
Common opponents\u00a0<\/p>\n
Competitive in losses<\/p>\n
Early performance versus late performance<\/p>\n
Head-to-head<\/p>\n
Observable component<\/p>\n
Overall record<\/p>\n
Regional rankings<\/p>\n
Significant wins<\/p>\n
Strength of schedule<\/p>\n
Alongside them are two more with the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) and new in 2025-26, wins above bubble. The latter has existed in evaluating the men\u2019s tournament, but is new this season for the women\u2019s tournament.<\/p>\n
Per the NCAA\u2019s website, \u201cWAB shows how many more or fewer wins a team has compared to what a bubble team would average against that same schedule.\u201d<\/p>\n
When it comes to evaluating the wins-above-bubble impact, ESPN\u2019s lead bracketologist, Charlie Creme, isn\u2019t quite sure.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t really know,\u201d Creme said. \u201cI think it\u2019s going to play a pretty significant role in determining those last few teams in and those teams that don\u2019t quite make the tournament. Usually, what we work from is the data that\u2019s presented, the numerous games that we watch, but also decisions that the committee makes based on their history.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t have any history on wins above bubble. So to some degree, this is going to be our evaluation year.\u201d<\/p>\n
ASU\u2019s 9-7 conference record ranks eighth in the Big 12, with games against BYU at home Wednesday and on the road against No. 20 Texas Tech on Sunday to close out the regular-season schedule.<\/p>\n
For the Sun Devils, a spot right on the bubble keeps fans religiously active in the process of checking the bracketology.<\/p>\n
With question marks surrounding ASU\u2019s tournament chances, the remaining two games will decide the importance of the Big 12 Women\u2019s Basketball Tournament that begins March 4 at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A win against Texas Tech could lift the Sun Devils high enough to confirm an at-large bid, but taking care of business in Kansas City would give them even more help.<\/p>\n
ASU Sun Devils head coach Molly Miller talks to her team on the sidelines as they play the Kansas State Wildcats at Desert Financial Arena in Tempe on Feb. 1, 2026.<\/p>\n
However, some of the factors that could impact ASU are out of its control. Being on the bubble, the performance of the surrounding teams will affect ASU\u2019s standing in the tournament.<\/p>\n
Of the 16 teams on the bubble, only three come from non-power conferences, with 10 teams split between the Big 12 and ACC.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cUtah, Colorado, Arizona State, then you get Clemson, Stanford, Virginia, Virginia Tech, all from the same two leagues,\u201d Creme said. \u201cSo while the Big 12 tournament is going on, I would suggest all the fans of those Big 12 teams watch the ACC tournament as well. Get that second screen up and watch that ACC tournament.\u201d<\/p>\n
Currently sitting as the first team out, ASU has moved around the bracketology board in 2025-26. The Sun Devils were projected as high as a No. 9 seed in January and have jumped in and out of tournament spots in February, most recently being moved out of the tournament on Tuesday\u2019s update.<\/p>\n