{"id":777047,"date":"2026-07-03T19:20:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T19:20:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/777047\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T19:20:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T19:20:17","slug":"predicted-27bn-wartime-windfall-for-australian-lng-exporters-reignites-calls-for-new-gas-tax-energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/777047\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicted $27bn wartime windfall for Australian LNG exporters reignites calls for new gas tax | Energy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Australia\u2019s giant LNG exporters are set to enjoy a $27bn boost to their revenues due to the Middle East conflict, according to new government estimates already being used to push for higher gas taxes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Despite being among the three biggest LNG exporters in the world, Australia collects relatively little tax compared to other resource-rich nations such as Norway and Qatar.<\/p>\n

The Albanese government was under pressure to announce plans to lift taxes on gas exports, only to shelve the idea<\/a> after the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.<\/p>\n

Iranian missile attacks in March then shuttered Qatari gas facilities and \u2013 according to the latest quarterly energy and resources report \u2013 \u201cflipped\u201d the global market from too much LNG supply to too little. This sent world prices higher.<\/p>\n

As a result, the Department of Industry, Science and Resources estimated Australia\u2019s LNG export earnings for 2026\u201327 would be $67.6bn \u2013 $21bn above what was forecast in December.<\/p>\n

The department also upgraded its export earnings estimates for the past financial year by $6bn and warned extended disruptions could add a further $7bn to LNG exports in 2026-27.<\/p>\n

\u201cPrice pressures linked to the Middle East conflict are expected to largely ease by 2029, with prices then returning to levels broadly consistent with forecasts made in March 2025,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n

Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n

David Pocock, the independent senator for the ACT, used the latest forecasts to double down on his demands for action on higher gas taxes.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur campaign for a gas tax isn\u2019t going away and huge wartime revenue for gas companies again underscores how as Australians we are missing out on a fair return from the sale of our finite resources,\u201d Pocock said in a statement.<\/p>\n

Pocock said he had booked ads about the issue, targeting Labor\u2019s national conference to be held in a few weeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cTime and again we\u2019ve seen the Albanese government caving to vested interests, from gas to gambling, and it has to stop.\u201d<\/p>\n

Graph showing actual and forecast LNG export earnings by financial year<\/a><\/p>\n

Experts have said the current petroleum resource rental tax has failed to capture the huge windfall profits<\/a> from mostly foreign-owned operators of the Queensland LNG export facilities.<\/p>\n

Chris Richardson, an independent economist, has described the efforts to tax gas firms as a \u201cbipartisan blooper\u201d and an \u201cepic fail\u201d.<\/p>\n

skip past newsletter promotion<\/a>Free newsletter | When needed<\/p>\n

Sign up to Breaking News Australia<\/p>\n

Get the most important news as it breaks<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Josh Runciman, an analyst at the Institute for Energy<\/a> Economics and Financial Analysis, said Australia was living through its second global gas supply crunch in five years.<\/p>\n

But unlike the experience in 2022 following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Runciman said domestic prices had not followed overseas prices higher \u2013 in no small part thanks to government intervention in the local market, including the looming gas reservation scheme<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know that the existing state and federal taxes don\u2019t do a good enough job capturing windfall profits that occur when things happen overseas,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

While he backed reforms that would deliver a better deal for Australians, he said the flat 25% export tax pushed by some, including Pocock, was \u201cnot the right model\u201d.<\/p>\n

Instead, he favoured an expanded version of Queensland\u2019s tiered royalty system at the federal level.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe current higher prices and the revision of export earnings is likely to continue to put pressure on the government to do something about taxes,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Runciman said global fossil fuel supplies were vulnerable to further disruptions, even assuming the current Middle East conflict is resolved over coming months.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ll probably see more periods where Australian LNG exporters earn windfall profits again, and without any reform we may see situations like this, where taxpayers continue to not earn much return on the gas.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s giant LNG exporters are set to enjoy a $27bn boost to their revenues due to the Middle…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":777048,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[64,63,99],"class_list":["post-777047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=777047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/777047\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/777048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=777047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=777047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=777047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}