<\/p>\n
\u201cWith ocean temperatures at these levels and El Nino on the horizon, we are likely to see more temperature records fall in the coming months.\u201d<\/p>\n
The global average sea surface temperature is a record 20.86C<\/a>. <\/p>\n Mediterranean waters are up to 8C warmer than usual.<\/p>\n The North Sea is up an extra 3C. <\/p>\n Western Pacific tropical waters are currently 1.24C above average. (It needs only to be 0.8C more to trigger an El Nino.)<\/p>\n And waters off New South Wales and Tasmania are peaking at around 3-4C above average<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThat may not sound like a big difference. But heating the world\u2019s oceans this much requires a truly enormous amount of energy,\u201d Chief Research Scientist (Environment) Alistair Hobday, UNSW oceanography Professor Matthew England and UNSW researcher Alex Sen Gupta write forThe Conversation<\/a>. <\/p>\n About 71 per cent of the world\u2019s surface is covered by ocean.<\/p>\n That makes it an enormous heat sink.<\/p>\n And a globe-spanning heat pump.<\/p>\n \u201cHigher ocean temperatures keep the atmosphere warm for longer, provide extra energy to storms and increase evaporation,\u201d the Copernicus statement explains.<\/p>\n Every 1C extra average heat enables clouds to carry 7 per cent more water. That can mean more rain, dumped harder, in uncommon locations.<\/p>\n \u201cThe heat in the ocean doesn\u2019t just stay there,\u201d the Australian climate scientists explain. \u201cHotter oceans fuel stronger cyclones, a more humid atmosphere, more intense rainfall and more heat in air masses over the seas, which can in turn make heatwaves over land more likely and more intense.\u201d<\/p>\n Unfolding extremes<\/p>\n This year\u2019s El Nino, as it evolves over the next six months, is likely to be more severe than any seen in recent decades.<\/p>\n It\u2019s already not looking good.<\/p>\n A global weather cascade may have already begun.<\/p>\n El Nino-driven atmospheric jet streams are compressing hot air across the Northern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n Almost 50 wildfires were recorded this week<\/a> across the United States. This includes 16 in Alaska, seven in Utah and five in Colorado. <\/p>\n The critical fire threat is expected to persist over much of the country over the weekend. And many of the nation\u2019s 250th July 4 long weekend celebrations are expected to be curtailed due to extreme heat.<\/p>\n Southern France is also being savaged by fire. Some 3000 tourists and residents of the coastal town Canet-en-Roussillon, near the Spanish border, were forced to evacuate. News footage shows warehouses and yachts aflame as thick smoke billows over the beach.<\/p>\n Fires are also threatening the Aude and Herault regions. Marseilles, France\u2019s second-largest city, experienced two blazes on its outskirts.<\/p>\n \u201cThe situation is fairly tense,\u201d French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said while addressing a Marseilles crisis meeting on Thursday.<\/p>\n His nation had just experienced 11 straight days of record-breaking heatwave conditions.<\/p>\n Hundreds of millions of people in North America and Europe will continue to be exposed to dangerous conditions over the weekend.<\/p>\n And the death toll is mounting.<\/p>\n World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus last week said some 1300 more deaths than usual had already been recorded across Europe for June.<\/p>\n New Scientist reports one estimate that heat-related deaths in Europe may have been as high as 17,000 to 25,000 people<\/a>. <\/p>\n The actual figure won\u2019t be revealed for several more months. Data has to be collected and collated from retirement homes, hostels, hospitals and morgues.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a similar story for the Super El Nino\u2019s fallout.<\/p>\n Deep-sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific have already increased by up to 6C.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we can expect 2026 to be very hot \u2013 perhaps a new record \u2013 next year is very likely to be even hotter, as ocean heat is moved back to the surface,\u201d the Australian climate scientists explain.<\/p>\n Uncharted territory<\/p>\n \u201cWe have indicators that place this El Nino in a similar pattern or signs that other very large El Ni\u00f1os had,\u201d says University of Edinburgh climate analyst Ioana Colfescu. <\/p>\n But that won\u2019t necessarily make it predictable.<\/p>\n El Nino usually brings drought to Asia and Australia, and floods to Peru and Ecuador.<\/p>\n But a \u201cSuper\u201d event takes the world into uncharted territory.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we look back at previous events, El Ni\u00f1os have various impacts,\u201d Ms Colfescu told The Conversation<\/a>. <\/p>\n \u201cThey are actually made much worse because the El Nino right now is overlapped on an already warm ocean because of climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n The weather, however, remains a political hot potato.<\/p>\n University of New York Professor Steven Koonin says global warming fears are all hot air.<\/p>\n The former chief scientist for multinational oil and gas company BP and Under Secretary for Science at the United States Department of Energy during the Obama administration insists we\u2019re all better off because of it.<\/p>\n