{"id":789285,"date":"2026-07-09T13:42:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T13:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/789285\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T13:42:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T13:42:10","slug":"grattan-on-friday-ais-opportunities-and-risks-front-and-centre-on-albanese-governments-agenda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/789285\/","title":{"rendered":"Grattan on Friday: AI\u2019s opportunities and risks front and centre on Albanese government\u2019s agenda"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you are feeling financially depleted personally, and pessimistic about the economic outlook generally, figures released this week won\u2019t cheer your mood. <\/p>\n

The OECD found Australia was one of 11 developed countries where the real minimum wage had fallen between April 2025 and April 2026. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Deloitte Access Economics in its latest Business Outlook<\/a> cut its forecast for growth in 2026\u201327, with the dismal message, \u201cThe economy is now expected to limp along at less than 2.0% annual growth for the next two years\u201d. <\/p>\n

This was followed by the International Monetary Fund\u2019s World Economic Outlook<\/a> data projecting Australia\u2019s GDP growth to be 1.9% this year and 1.7% next year. <\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s overall economic growth is slow, but at least it\u2019s in positive territory. However, that\u2019s held up by population increase. On a per capita basis, GDP went backwards in two of the past five quarters (March 2025 and March 2026) and was flat in a third (September 2025).<\/p>\n

No wonder consumer confidence is low, and One Nation\u2019s tune rings loudly in the ears of voters who hear it reflecting their grievances. <\/p>\n

The government would say, hang on a minute, it\u2019s not all bad. Business investment is strong. Unemployment is still very low. It would also point out that \u201ctalking down\u201d the economy can play into \u201cpushing down\u201d the economy. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese after the Tax Reform Bill passed in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra, Thursday, June 25, 2026.
\n Mick Tsikas\/AAP<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the government can read the numbers, and one thing they tell us is that without refuelling that vital growth agent, productivity, we will stay in the doldrums. <\/p>\n

Despite all the talk since the election about action to boost productivity, we need faster progress to improve our poor performance. <\/p>\n

Yes, some reforms are in the pipeline, for example to remove obstacles and streamline approvals in the building sector and to reduce the regulatory burdens on projects. <\/p>\n

But those looking for bigger, faster gains are inevitably turning their attention to Artificial Intelligence. At the government level, AI is receiving extensive attention from cabinet and ministers individually. <\/p>\n

AI can, potentially, be the accelerant under big productivity gains. New data centres (not all involve AI but increasingly they do) are fuelling business investment. Australia is an attractive home for international investment in these centres because of its land and water, its uptake of technology, and the stability of its legal and political systems.<\/p>\n

But AI also brings a mass of potential negatives (or fears of them). Data centres soak up vast amounts of energy and water, as well as producing noise and heat. Some communities are unhappy about them.<\/p>\n

This new industrial revolution fires up its bright-eyed advocates, and comes with warnings from the worriers. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit like that in the federal ministry too, where there\u2019s a spread of views about the rollout of policies and which stakeholders should have how much say in what\u2019s done. <\/p>\n

Some characterise it as a sort of tug-of-war between the enthusiasts and the cautious.<\/p>\n

Former industry minister Ed Husic favoured overarching new legislation, but the government has gone down the more decentralised route, with ministers and regulators having carriage of AI in their own areas. <\/p>\n

Assistant Minister for Science, Technology and the Digital Economy Andrew Charlton is seen by colleagues as something of an ambassador for AI. Although well down the formal pecking order, Charlton carries weight because he\u2019s highly qualified in economics and tuned into the AI sector. As cabinet secretary he has a level of political access other assistant ministers would not. <\/p>\n

Charlton is a strong promoter of AI but also mindful of the need for strict conditions, not least for maintaining its social licence. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Minister for Industry Tim Ayres and Assistant Minister for Science Andrew Charlton at a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra, Monday, March 23, 2026.
\n Mick Tsikas\/AAP<\/p>\n

Industry minister Tim Ayres \u2013 who\u2019s Charlton\u2019s senior minister in the portfolio \u2013 is attuned to the opportunities AI presents and doesn\u2019t want Australia to miss out. But he comes from the union movement and has highlighted unions (which are cautious about AI) should be \u201cat the top table\u201d in the rollout. <\/p>\n

Employment minister Amanda Rishworth is concerned about the fate of many workers. On Wednesday she released a report<\/a> prepared by her department on \u201cAI and Employment in Australia\u201d. One line in it neatly sums up where things are. \u201cAI could reshape the labour market, but its effect on employment is highly uncertain.\u201d Bearing in mind we\u2019re in the first stage of this journey, the report found, <\/p>\n

There is no evidence to date of broad labour market upheaval driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Australia. Overall labour market conditions remain strong by historical standards, youth outcomes have mostly held up, and occupational reshuffling has not accelerated.<\/p>\n

However, occupations more exposed to potential automation by generative AI have grown more slowly than other occupations. Between November 2022 and February 2026, employment in the most-exposed fifth of occupations grew by 5.6%, compared with 9.5% in the least-exposed fifth.<\/p>\n

We find a small negative relationship between AI exposure and employment growth. For an occupation with AI exposure one standard deviation above average, our model implies employment was about 2% lower by February 2026 than it would have been under its pre-ChatGPT trend.<\/p>\n

The government in December released its National AI Plan<\/a>. It was interpreted as \u201clight touch\u201d regulation, and reflecting the position of Treasurer Jim Chalmers. It was also light on detail, although it did include an AI Safety Institute and flagged expectations data centres would have to meet, that were subsequently released. <\/p>\n

AI can\u2019t have a set-and-forget policy. It has to be constantly updated as things develop, and hot issues must be addressed as they emerge. <\/p>\n

Just now, there\u2019s much concern in the music industry and other parts of the arts and creative communities. Arts Minister Tony Burke is dubbed the \u201cshop steward\u201d for the musos. Creatives are particularly worried about their copyright being undermined. Attorney-General Michelle Rowland, who oversees copyright, is said to be disturbed by the agitation. The government believes the existing law on copyright is robust enough, but is ready to act if particular problems need attention. <\/p>\n

The government is very aware of the need for Australia to stamp its sovereignty on AI policy. Perhaps influenced by its battle with the tech giants over the enforcement of the under-16 social media ban, it believes it can\u2019t allow \u201cthe tech bros to let it rip\u201d, as one source puts it. But it can\u2019t allow the country to fall behind the pack either. <\/p>\n

Next week Anthony Albanese will give a speech on AI. It is expected to present a broad picture rather than all the nitty gritty. But it is being billed as showing the level of prime ministerial engagement in this area in which the government is trying to thread a course between huge potential and undoubted risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If you are feeling financially depleted personally, and pessimistic about the economic outlook generally, figures released this week…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":789286,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":["post-789285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789285","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=789285"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789285\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/789286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=789285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=789285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=789285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}