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How does The Run Home work?<\/p>\n
We\u2019re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it\u2019s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.<\/p>\n
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.<\/p>\n
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they\u2019d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it\u2019s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That\u2019s why almost all teams have a projection that\u2019s not a round number.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s all about probability, and it\u2019s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.<\/p>\n
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it\u2019s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you\u2019re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you\u2019ll make these projections look silly, but that\u2019s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.<\/p>\n
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we\u2019re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy runs through the AFL finals race with six games left.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n
PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET<\/p>\n
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium<\/p>\n
First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBD at Adelaide Oval<\/p>\n
First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Geelong vs GWS Giants at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Melbourne vs TBD at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG<\/p>\n
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.<\/p>\n
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER<\/p>\n
1. Fremantle (19.35 projected wins)<\/p>\n
2. Sydney Swans (17.4)<\/p>\n
3. Hawthorn (16.05)<\/p>\n
4. Brisbane Lions (15.2)<\/p>\n
5. Adelaide Crows (14.65)<\/p>\n
6. Melbourne (14.35)<\/p>\n
7. Geelong (13.45)<\/p>\n
8. Western Bulldogs (12.85)<\/p>\n
9. Collingwood (11.95)<\/p>\n
10. GWS Giants (11.5)<\/p>\n
11. St Kilda (11.35)<\/p>\n
12. Carlton (10.85)<\/p>\n
13. North Melbourne (9.65)<\/p>\n
14. Gold Coast Suns (9.6)<\/p>\n
15. Port Adelaide (8.3)<\/p>\n
16. West Coast Eagles (5.55)<\/p>\n
17. Richmond (3)<\/p>\n
18. Essendon (1.95)<\/p>\n
“How does he kick this!?” | 00:17<\/p>\n
Key Talking Points<\/p>\n
– Fremantle is mathematically locked into the finals. Heck, they\u2019re almost mathematically locked into the top six. Now sitting two games clear of Sydney (the percentage gap looks big, but would disappear if they lost twice) they look near-certainties to be minor premiers and would need to completely collapse to miss a home qualifying final;<\/p>\n
– Sydney remains another two games clear of third, and as long as they win at least one of their next two games, should finish second;<\/p>\n
– Hard to see the Cats making the top four from here unless everything goes right, so it\u2019s a four team race with two solid favourites. Hawthorn and Brisbane have easier remaining draws than Adelaide and Melbourne, with the Crows still to play Sydney and Freo away, while the Demons host Geelong and Freo; <\/p>\n
– None of Geelong\u2019s recent losses, individually, are particularly bad. But collectively they are terrible. There\u2019s still a world where the Cats win their last six games and sneak into the top four (they\u2019re arguably favoured in all six, though Dees-Cats at the MCG is 50-50 at best), but more realistically, they cannot be trusted… and more importantly the gap to both Hawthorn and Brisbane is just too big. They\u2019re getting a home elimination final at best, almost certainly by beating and then passing Melbourne, and copping a scary wildcard game at worst. (Their last three games are against the Bombers, Roos and Tigers. They\u2019re not missing the finals.)<\/p>\n
– With disaster avoided against the Eagles, the Bulldogs just need to keep getting the job done against lesser sides. With the Tigers and Kangaroos left, that should be the 12 wins they\u2019ll require;<\/p>\n
– The comeback over the Kangaroos was vital for Collingwood, given their remaining draw. If they beat the Blues next week, combined with West Coast away in a few weeks\u2019 time, that could be just enough for a wildcard (and an upset over one of the four contenders they play wouldn\u2019t go astray). The problem is that\u2019s only 11 and a half wins, and the Giants and Saints now have reasonable paths to reach 12…<\/p>\n
– GWS\u2019 season has been ridiculous, with five wins over the top half of the ladder, and three wins over the bottom half. They\u2019re gonna be scary if they make the wildcard and they\u2019re now on track for it, with four very winnable games (Bombers, Power, Suns, Eagles) that\u2019d get them to the magic number of 12. If they hadn\u2019t lost to St Kilda twice they\u2019d be in a much better spot, but those victories will serve the Saints well. They also have a solid path to 12 wins (if they beat the Roos, Blues, Tigers and Suns) and combined with the Giants, that\u2019s keeping the Pies at risk.<\/p>\n
– Also keeping the Pies at risk? Next week\u2019s huge clash with Carlton! The Blues dropped down the order a little bit after the loss to Hawthorn, yet still have a reasonable path to 12 wins if they beat the Magpies, plus the Suns, Saints and Bulldogs. But as you would expect from a team that\u2019s trying to play finals after starting 1-8, they don\u2019t have much margin for error.<\/p>\n
– North Melbourne was brave against the Pies but the wildcard dream is basically over, while Gold Coast feels a lot like Geelong; their losses can kinda be explained individually, but they\u2019re about to finish way, way lower on the ladder than they should.<\/p>\n
GWS stun Cats to continue hot streak | 01:45<\/p>\n
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can\u2019t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.<\/p>\n
1. FREMANTLE (15-2, 142.3%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 20: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest<\/p>\n
After the second-least accurate half in footy history, West Coast came back and won. After the equal-third-least accurate half in footy history, Fremantle came back and won. What does this mean? Absolutely nothing, but it\u2019s kinda weird hey? The Dockers will finish on top of the ladder but they should try kicking straighter in the first half in September; it\u2019ll make things a whole lot less stressful.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 19.35 wins, finishing 1st<\/p>\n
Longmuir proud of Dockers’ response | 06:44<\/p>\n
2. SYDNEY SWANS (13-4, 131.2%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 19: Adelaide Crows at the SCG, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 20: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest<\/p>\n
The Swans would\u2019ve been very disappointed with the way they melted down late against the Dockers, though that first half was a great sign for September. They\u2019ll likely still host a qualifying final but the door could sneak open for Hawthorn or Brisbane if they find the next two weeks difficult. If Sydney gets through the Crows and Giants unscathed, we can\u2019t see them falling out of second place (especially since the Hawks and Lions have to play each other), and even if they go 1-1 they will likely be OK.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 17.4 wins, finishing 2nd<\/p>\n
Cox left frustrated after Freo loss | 10:10<\/p>\n
3. HAWTHORN (11-5-1, 114.2%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 19: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 20: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest<\/p>\n
The ladder makes things look a bit tighter for the Hawks than they really are. With four games left against four of the worst teams in the league, plus a clash with Collingwood they\u2019ll go into as favourites, Sam Mitchell\u2019s men have a strong grip on a top-four finish. Should they win those five games, they will earn the double chance unless two of Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne finish on a 6-0 run… the Lions could certainly do it, but the Crows and Demons each have two very tough games left. At the very least, the Hawks should win their next three and build an even bigger lead over the chasing pack.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 16.05 wins, finishing 3rd<\/p>\n
Hawks snap Blues winning streak | 02:57<\/p>\n
4. BRISBANE LIONS (11-6, 117.1%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 19: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 20: Port Adelaide at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest<\/p>\n