{"id":800409,"date":"2026-07-14T20:24:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T20:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/800409\/"},"modified":"2026-07-14T20:24:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T20:24:15","slug":"csiro-gencost-report-fossil-fuels-could-cut-electricity-costs-by-5-per-cent-but-would-require-huge-pollution-surge-abandoning-net-zero","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/800409\/","title":{"rendered":"CSIRO GenCost report: Fossil fuels could cut electricity costs by 5 per cent but would require huge pollution surge, abandoning net zero"},"content":{"rendered":"

July 15, 2026 \u2014 12:01am<\/p>\n

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Investing in more fossil fuels and limiting the rollout of wind and solar farms could cut 5 per cent from Australia\u2019s electricity costs by 2050, the CSIRO says, but the strategy would require the nation to abandon all climate commitments and allow a massive surge in atmospheric pollution.<\/p>\n

The trade-off, which has been modelled for the first time in the national science agency\u2019s latest electricity generation cost scorecard to be released on Wednesday, is set to inflame Australia\u2019s decades-long climate wars.<\/p>\n

\"TheThe rise of One Nation in federal polls is creating a new dynamic in Australia\u2019s climate wars, as conservatives back new coal plants and bipartisan support for renewable energy crumbles. AP<\/p>\n

According to the CSIRO, new coal-fired power plants and more gas use could generate electricity at $124 per megawatt hour by 2050, measured in today\u2019s dollars. By contrast, electricity would cost $131 a megawatt hour under the current plan for a net-zero-compliant grid powered mostly by renewable energy and backed up by batteries, transmission lines and gas.<\/p>\n

The price gap has been mapped out as conservative political parties clash over renewables and emissions targets with the Albanese government, which has set a legally binding target for net zero by 2050 and an ambitious goal for renewables to reach 82 per cent of the grid by 2030 and more than 90 per cent by 2050.<\/p>\n

Experts including the Grattan Institute and analyst Rystad have said<\/a> the renewables rollout will fall significantly short of its 2030 target.<\/p>\n

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has declared global warming a \u201choax\u201d, with her party\u2019s manifesto labelling<\/a> climate action a \u201cvehicle for creating a socialist Australia\u201d and a government move to exert totalitarian control over society.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce on Tuesday doubled down on his party\u2019s hardline opposition to renewables, which he declared \u201can environmental disaster and a blight on our landscape \u2026 and then you\u2019ve got the transmission lines, the cobwebs of filth\u201d.<\/p>\n

The federal Coalition ditched its commitment to net zero in November, with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor pledging in May to keep coal plants running \u201cas long and as hard as possible to get electricity prices down\u201d.<\/p>\n

Opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan said on Tuesday the government must answer the question \u201cWhy aren\u2019t we doing more to develop our coal and gas resources here, rather than selling them overseas?\u201d<\/p>\n

Related Article\"Renewable<\/a><\/p>\n

However, energy experts cautioned against any moves to trade Australia\u2019s climate commitments and international standing for a nominal 5 per cent cost saving.<\/p>\n

Grattan Institute energy director Tony Wood said the CSIRO\u2019s \u201cGenCost\u201d report was a valuable estimate of energy development costs, but its long-range modelling 25 years into the future could not be perfectly precise.<\/p>\n

Even if it were accurate, a 5 per cent cost increase from a grid with new coal and gas, or one dominated by renewables, represented a good value, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cFive per cent is within the rounding accuracy of the modelling,\u201d Wood said. \u201cBut if it was my money and I had to compare spending an extra 5 per cent to save the planet, I reckon that\u2019s a pretty good investment.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Albanese government has cited previous versions of the GenCost report that found a renewables rollout to achieve net zero was the cheapest way to expand the grid to meet future industry and population growth.<\/p>\n

However, the government will point to CSIRO\u2019s instruction in GenCost for precedence to be given to another major energy report, the Integrated System Plan from the Australian Energy Market Operator.<\/p>\n

\u201c[GenCost] results are designed to be reasonably accurate but, by design, are substantially less sophisticated than the multimodel state-of-the-art framework deployed in the Integrated System Plan,\u201d CSIRO said.<\/p>\n

Coal plants are typically shut down by the owners when they are 44 years old. More than two-thirds of existing coal plants are 39 years old and due to exit the grid by 2035. Investors are unlikely to greenlight new coal plants, as banks and insurers have withdrawn lending to fossil fuels, and shareholders in publicly traded power utilities have been insisting on greater emissions cuts.<\/p>\n

Energy demand is set to double by 2050, and Industry and Science Minister Tim Ayres argued renewables would be needed to generate most of the extra electricity and attacked conservative parties opposition to clean energy.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"One<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cWe know that any new coal-fired power stations would struggle to secure financing and no new projects are currently proposed \u2013 which is why GenCost also queries the assumed prices of fossil fuels in its models, noting that the world will likely continue on embracing cheap, reliable renewable,\u201d said a spokesperson for Ayres.<\/p>\n

Emissions from the electricity grid make up about one-third of the nation\u2019s greenhouse output. Renewables are considered the cheapest way to cut emissions across the economy.<\/p>\n

\u201cSolar, wind and batteries remain the lowest-cost technologies capable of supporting Australia\u2019s net zero goals,\u201d CSIRO said.<\/p>\n

Independent analyst Climate Action Tracker has found the government\u2019s policies are inconsistent with the Paris Agreement goal to hold global warming as close to 1.5 degrees as possible.<\/p>\n

Increased emissions from coal power would significantly increase Australia\u2019s contribution to global warming, and it said that if all countries mirrored Australia\u2019s actions warming would exceed 2 degrees and potentially reach 3 degrees.<\/p>\n

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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\"MikeMike Foley<\/a> is the climate and energy correspondent for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via email<\/a>.\"NickNick Toscano<\/a> is a business reporter for The Age and Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X<\/a> or email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"July 15, 2026 \u2014 12:01am Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items. Remove items from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":800410,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[64,63,75,128],"class_list":["post-800409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-environment","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/800409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=800409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/800409\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/800410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=800409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=800409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=800409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}