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<\/p>\nNow that the Origin period is over, there\u2019s suddenly only eight rounds left until the NRL finals for 2026.<\/p>\n
Penrith is the only team assured of a top eight spot this far out in a fairly congested ladder.<\/p>\n
The Roosters finished eighth last year with 32 points and teams will need at least that many to play finals footy.<\/p>\n
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Watch every game of every round of the NRL Premiership LIVE with no ad-breaks during play on FOX LEAGUE, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\n It\u2019s looking like the Melbourne Storm will miss the finals for the first time under Craig Bellamy, with the exception of 2010 when they played for no points due to salary cap breaches. <\/p>\n The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers and based on team ratings, the remaining games have been simulated 100,000 times, with the venues adding a little extra weighting to find out where the teams will finish on the ladder. <\/p>\n Despite being two points behind them on the ladder, the Titans have been given an extremely small chance of making the top eight over the Eels.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s take a look at each team\u2019s run home.<\/p>\n 1.PENRITH PANTHERS (32 points, +280)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 1st <\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 100%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 88.9%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Broncos (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)<\/p>\n Analysis: Technically, they\u2019re the only team to have guaranteed itself a spot in the finals already. They\u2019re four points ahead of the Warriors and Roosters and have a superior for-and-against so can probably afford to lose two games and still win the minor premiership. Six of the eight teams they play currently sit outside the eight, but of their three losses this season two have come to lowly-ranked teams (Bulldogs and Titans) and the other was to the eighth-placed Cowboys. Injuries, or a rare off night, look to be the biggest barriers to them winning a fifth premiership in six years. They\u2019re unbeaten at home this season and their few injured players are all due back in the next fortnight.<\/p>\n 2. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (29 points, +194)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 2nd<\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.9%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 93.9%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 7.7%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Dragons (H), Bulldogs (A), Titans (A), Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)<\/p>\n Analysis: The Warriors have a pretty good run into the finals with five home games and only face one other top-four side in the Panthers. They should be good enough to win their next three to keep the pressure on Penrith for the minor premiership. They face the Panthers in four weeks at home where first place could be on the line. They\u2019re equal on 28 points with the Roosters but have an easier draw according to the Fox Lab.<\/p>\n READ MORE<\/p>\n Storm revive pursuit for ex-Origin star Lomax as latest talks hit major snag<\/a><\/p>\n Maguire responds to claims of heated clash with Broncos great Karmichael Hunt<\/a><\/p>\n ‘One of the great wingers of all time’ | 01:07<\/p>\n 3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (28 points, +76)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 4th<\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.3%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 77.9%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 2.2%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Storm (H), Knights (A), Cowboys, (A), Bulldogs (H), Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)<\/p>\n Analysis: Not the easiest run, starting on Friday night with a rejuvenated Storm at Allianz Stadium. The Roosters are part of a pack of teams in contention for a top-four spot and if they make it they will have earned it. They\u2019ve still got to play the Panthers, Knights and Cowboys away along with the dangerous Dolphins and arch-rivals Souths. Their for-and-against is easily the worst of the current top four sides which could cost them a home final in the first week. Sam Walker\u2019s confidence after a good debut Origin series will be a positive.<\/p>\n 4. CRONULLA SHARKS (26 points, +123)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 3rd<\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.6%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 82.6%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 1.2%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Knights (H), Sea Eagles (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Storm (H)<\/p>\n Analysis: They sent a warning to their premiership rivals on the weekend with a 66-0 demolition job of fellow top-four contender the Dolphins in Redcliffe. They only play two current top eight sides in the run home starting with the Knights this week. A win cements them in the top four. They don\u2019t play any of the top three teams again but will be hoping to meet one of them in the first week of the finals. Craig Fitzgibbon\u2019s troops have made the past two preliminary finals. Can they go a step further in 2026? Nicho Hynes is in form, but needs to shine in a high-pressure finals game. According to the Fox Sports Lab they have the easiest draw for the run home.<\/p>\n Sharks halfback Nicho Hynes is the key man for Cronulla. Picture: NRL ImagesSource: Supplied<\/p>\n 5. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (26 points, +39)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 7th<\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 78.5%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 8.8%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 0% <\/p>\n Remaining games: Sharks (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (A), Titans (H), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), BYE<\/p>\n Analysis: It\u2019s a big fortnight coming up for the Knights against two top four contenders in the Sharks and Roosters. They finish with a bye which is handy, but haven\u2019t been at their best away from home and have to travel to Brisbane and Canberra for crucial matches. They\u2019re having a fairly good run with injuries at the moment and Jacob Saifiti and Greg Marzhew will be coming back soon. They have the fourth-hardest run in according to the Fox Sports Lab. Along with the Cowboys, they\u2019re one of just two teams currently in the top eight to concede more than 400 points this season. <\/p>\n 6. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (24 points, +86)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 5th <\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 83.1%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 15.2%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Raiders (A), Storm (H), Sharks (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A), Warriors (H), Titans (A), Roosters (H)<\/p>\n Analysis: Five home games will be a welcome sight after poor away form this season, but the teams they do face at home are rated harder to beat than the teams they play on the road. Not the hardest run in according to the Fox Sports Lab which predicts they leapfrog the Knights to run fifth. They\u2019re rated a 15.2 per cent chance of making the top four. It might seem unlikely, but last year the Broncos were in sixth with six rounds to play and only rated a 5.9 per cent chance of making the top four and they did despite being four points off fourth. Souths are just two points behind Cronulla at the moment. They should also get Latrell Mitchell back either this week or next which is a must if they\u2019re to be a force in the finals. <\/p>\n 7. DOLPHINS (24 points, +64)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 6th <\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 81.7%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 10.2%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Cowboys (H), BYE, Dragons (A), Broncos (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H), Roosters (A), Titans (A)<\/p>\n Analysis: Coming off a 66-0 flogging at the hands of the Sharks has cast doubts over their premiership credentials. But the Fox Sports Lab says they have one of the easier draws heading into the finals. They\u2019re well favoured to win their home games and throw in a bye and they\u2019re set to play in their first finals series. Last week\u2019s loss severely hampered their top-four hopes and they\u2019re now just a 10.2 per cent chance of getting a second chance in the finals. Isaiya Katoa is due back in Round 23 and it can\u2019t come quick enough. <\/p>\n The Dolphins need Isaiya Katoa to make a charge towards a premiership Picture: NRL PhotosSource: The Courier Mail<\/p>\n 8. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (24 points, -16)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 8th <\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 76.6%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 7.1%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Broncos (H), Roosters (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (H)<\/p>\n Analysis: A crucial away win over Manly has got them into the top eight, which is where the Fox Sports Lab predicts they\u2019ll stay. They have the second-easiest run to the finals and are rated a good chance to win all four of their home games. Even their away games aren\u2019t the hardest and Tom Dearden\u2019s return is timely after a long lay-off with an ankle injury. It\u2019s no coincidence they\u2019ve won their past two on the back of good defensive efforts and they only have to travel to Sydney once in the final eight rounds and it\u2019s against the lowly Parramatta. <\/p>\n 9. MANLY SEA EAGLES (22 points, +132)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 9th <\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 61.8%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 4.2%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Titans (A), Sharks (H), BYE, Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A)<\/p>\n Analysis: Manly have fallen out of the top eight after letting the game slip against the Cowboys on Sunday at home. And the Fox Sports Lab predicts they won\u2019t get back in. Their draw is favourable, particularly for their home games, but their road trips aren\u2019t easy ones. The loss of Luke Brooks has hampered their finals charge and they face the Warriors away to end the season. They\u2019ve only won two of their past seven and are fading after a prosperous \u2018Fozball\u2019 period under new coach Kieran Foran.<\/p>\n 10. MELBOURNE STORM (20 points, -2)<\/p>\n Predicted finish: 10th<\/p>\n Chance of finishing in top eight: 8.2%<\/p>\n Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%<\/p>\n Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n Remaining games: Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (H), BYE, Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A)<\/p>\n