{"id":802467,"date":"2026-07-15T20:01:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T20:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/802467\/"},"modified":"2026-07-15T20:01:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T20:01:34","slug":"australian-property-prices-shibboleth-about-house-prices-has-just-been-shattered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/802467\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian property prices: Shibboleth about house prices has just been shattered"},"content":{"rendered":"

Opinion<\/p>\n

\"ShaneShane Wright<\/a>Senior economics correspondent<\/p>\n

July 16, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n

July 16, 2026 \u2014 5:00am<\/p>\n

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It is \u2013 or was \u2013 the bedrock conventional wisdom of Australian politics.<\/p>\n

As John Howard noted in a radio interview back in 2003, the nation\u2019s voters want the value of their houses to keep going up and up and up.<\/p>\n

\"InIn the early 2000s, John Howard\u2019s view on higher house prices was on song with the community. But voters\u2019 views of the property market have changed.The Age<\/p>\n

\u201cAnybody who owns a house is very happy that the value of that house has gone up; let\u2019s be quite straight about that,\u201d he told Brisbane radio<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cI haven\u2019t found anybody in 7\u00bd years shake their fist at me and say, \u2018Howard, I\u2019m angry with you for letting the value of my house increase\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

Related Article\"A<\/a><\/p>\n

For decades, the view among almost every member of the federal parliament, the shock jock community and the angry columnists of newspapers and pay TV channels was that people did not want house prices to fall.<\/p>\n

Onward and upward was the way to political success. And beware anyone who had the temerity to suggest a drop in house prices might be needed to keep homes affordable for new home-buyers.<\/p>\n

But something has happened over the intervening two decades. The housing market has become utterly broken.<\/p>\n

And the Australian public is changing its views in response.<\/p>\n

Over the past month, three opinion polls \u2013 two for this masthead by Resolve Political Monitor, the other for Sky News \u2013 have revealed large numbers of Australians think house prices have to fall.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"The<\/a><\/p>\n

The most recent Resolve poll<\/a>, released this week, showed the proportion of respondents who believe house prices need to drop had increased eight points over the past month to 61 per cent.<\/p>\n

Just 9 per cent were opposed.<\/p>\n

Across every age, voting and income group, most people said it\u2019s time to end the housing party that\u2019s been raging since the mid-1990s. From renters to investors, from One Nation supporters to rusted-on Coalition backers, from Gen Z to Boomers, all were agreed.<\/p>\n

You could argue that survey respondents may back a house price fall if the property belongs to someone else.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why Resolve asked a follow-up question. What sort of price fall would you accept for your home?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

About 15 per cent said they wanted their house to keep going up, while another 23 per cent said they\u2019d be happy for it to stay around the same price. But the rest backed a cut, including 14 per cent who could live with a drop of 20 per cent or more.<\/p>\n

While Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers have talked about fixing the nation\u2019s housing system, they\u2019ve gone out of their way to suggest they aren\u2019t targeting lower house prices. The budget\u2019s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes, according to Treasury analysis, will mean house prices will grow about 2 per cent slower than they would otherwise.<\/p>\n

When Housing Minister Clare O\u2019Neil used the term \u201ccorrection\u201d to describe what is happening to the housing market at present, there was a pile-on from the Coalition and some media galahs, as if she had suggested razing entire suburbs. Where were these critics and their warnings of disaster during previous price corrections (2010, 2017-2019, early 2020, early 2022)?<\/p>\n

Liberal housing spokesman Andrew Bragg instead held his tongue. Among all MPs in the major parties, Bragg has been alone in arguing that, especially at the entry-level end of the market, prices have to fall.<\/p>\n

\"TreasurerTreasurer Jim Chalmers, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Housing Minister Clare O\u2019Neil.Alex Ellinghausen<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact is that a young person knows the prices have been too high for too long,\u201d he recently noted<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a refreshing, and sadly rare, statement of the bleeding obvious. These recent polls suggest voters are on Bragg\u2019s side.<\/p>\n

An economic argument has developed over recent years, described as the \u201chousing theory of everything\u201d. At its heart is the notion that housing \u2013 which has shifted from shelter to an investment asset \u2013 has become disproportionately central to our economies and societies.<\/p>\n

From inequality to fertility to generational divisions to the banking system\u2019s dependence on property, housing has captured and distorted economies in high-income countries. As the value of bricks and mortar has climbed, our societies and economies have become poorer in ways we\u2019re just beginning to understand.<\/p>\n

The worldwide slowdown in productivity this century has been accompanied by huge property bubbles, from London to Auckland to Toronto to Sydney.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Research released in April by the British-based Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy suggests<\/a> that the booming UK housing market artificially inflated official measures of GDP and productivity for decades. Britain\u2019s productive capacity had been over-estimated by almost 20 per cent because of how such things as rent and the value of residential sales are accounted by statisticians.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not as if history is devoid of examples of crazy house prices causing economic damage. Japan\u2019s entire economy became addicted to the surge in property prices in the 1980s before it all came unstuck when an economic downturn in the mid-90s created a \u201clost generation\u201d trapped in insecure work and unable to afford mortgage repayments on some of the world\u2019s most expensive property.<\/p>\n

Related Article\"As<\/a><\/p>\n

Even earlier, 1880s \u201cmarvellous Melbourne\u201d enjoyed a credit-fuelled property speculation boom. House and land prices unsustainably surged by 80 per cent in five years.<\/p>\n

By 1892, the bubble burst<\/a> and the economy was contracting by 17 per cent a year in what remains this country\u2019s worst depression.<\/p>\n

Melbourne, until then the nation\u2019s most populous city and its financial centre, lost its crown to Sydney, which powered ahead. Melbourne was not marvellous for decades after.<\/p>\n

Fast-forward to this century. When Howard made his comment to that Brisbane radio station, the average new Australian mortgage was $210,000. Today, it\u2019s $735,000.<\/p>\n

In Howard\u2019s home town of Sydney, the median price in 2003 was $454,000. Now, it\u2019s $1.6 million. Sydney is just one of five capitals where the median price is above $1 million.<\/p>\n

For 30 years, house prices have outpaced incomes. This has forced banks to offer ever-longer loans to customers. It has led to a drop in homeownership among every age group and delayed coupling and the creation of families. It\u2019s channelled trillions of dollars into splashbacks and fake grass backyards at the expense of new businesses and new ideas.<\/p>\n

Voters realise it has to end. And in the process, they may finally break our politicians\u2019 view of the property market.<\/p>\n

Shane Wright is a senior economics correspondent.<\/p>\n

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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\"ShaneShane Wright<\/a> is a senior economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X<\/a> or email<\/a>.From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Opinion Shane WrightSenior economics correspondent July 16, 2026 \u2014 5:00am July 16, 2026 \u2014 5:00am Save You have…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":802468,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[64,63,99],"class_list":["post-802467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=802467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/802467\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/802468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=802467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=802467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=802467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}