{"id":804306,"date":"2026-07-16T16:39:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T16:39:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/804306\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T16:39:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T16:39:17","slug":"labors-tax-changes-threaten-state-budgets-as-lower-property-prices-yield-lower-stamp-duty-sp-global-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/804306\/","title":{"rendered":"Labor’s tax changes threaten state budgets as lower property prices yield lower stamp duty, S&P Global warns"},"content":{"rendered":"

Labor\u2019s tax changes could hurt state budgets which are already full of “overly optimistic” revenue forecasts, a major institution has warned.<\/p>\n

S&P Global warned that Labor\u2019s plan to restrict negative gearing and dump the capital gains tax discount has contributed to home values plummeting and will weigh on budgets.<\/p>\n

The tax changes will also worsen states\u2019 revenue take from stamp duty through lower home values.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis year\u2019s state budgets continue to project that operating expense growth will moderate across the four-year forecast horizon,\u201d S&P\u2019s director of Asia-Pacific public finance Martin Foo said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese spending projections appear optimistic.\u201d<\/p>\n

Four state governments have upgraded their projected annual revenue from stamp duty by a total of $3.6 billion.<\/p>\n

The governments made this call after the federal budget was delivered in May.<\/p>\n

This follows the Parliamentary Budget Office criticising \u201csystemic optimism\u201d in forecasts that made budgets seem stronger than they were.<\/p>\n

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he stands by the budget projections, despite concerns from the PBO.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe PBO found that our\u00a0budget\u00a0position has improved,\u201d Mr Chalmers told ABC Radio Brisbane.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe’ve got debt down, we’ve got the deficits down, not that long ago we delivered a couple of surpluses, and so that has quite substantially improved the\u00a0budget\u00a0position over that medium term trajectory.<\/p>\n

\u201cOverwhelmingly the story of the\u00a0budget\u00a0in this country is of quite a substantial improvement over the last four years.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\u2018Fantasy<\/p>\n

The PBO also warned that recent growth in total state debt presented an \u201cadditional and emerging fiscal risk\u201d.<\/p>\n

S&P Global has given the federal government and Western Australian government its highest rating of AAA.<\/p>\n

Queensland, NSW and South Australia have AA+ ratings while Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT each have AA ratings.<\/p>\n

The federal budget has remained in deficit \u2013 meaning the government will spend more than its revenue \u2013 for every year of the forward estimates.<\/p>\n

While the government has banked $44 billion in savings, the budget bottom line will still sink $150 billion into the red over the next five years.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, various state budget downturns loom as property prices are expected to decline throughout 2027.<\/p>\n

HSBC\u2019s chief economist Paul Bloxham said buyers\u00a0are avoiding entering a market where property values are sinking<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is just the beginning,\u201d Mr Bloxham said in a statement.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe recent big shifts in tax policy concerning investment properties, as well as the RBA’s earlier three rate hikes, have rapidly sapped investor demand from the market.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs we see it, first home buyers and other owner-occupiers are unlikely to want to try to ‘catch a falling knife’.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Labor\u2019s tax changes could hurt state budgets which are already full of “overly optimistic” revenue forecasts, a major…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":804307,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[377387,377404,377380,377383,377379,377428,377378,377426,377412,10968,89838,377373,377414,377424,377400,376769,377411,377408,19815,20618,377390,377429,377377,64,63,1480,68261,32442,99,22947,2667,47743,56957,377406,13110,95001,377418,377399,377386,91108,5298,377417,66224,33979,105004,377385,377402,42086,377370,1788,377419,350405,377372,377436,377384,377394,10928,376630,16299,2733,377413,377432,377427,377430,43016,20246,364649,19604,111322,94,701,10944,377437,377393,28747,2008,81671,1781,377392,61059,86032,377425,21506,377396,377398,2801,4961,321932,21047,377395,141619,377055,51894,377405,377397,377371,377423,377401,377381,120559,377407,377376,23023,377434,377391,377435,377421,377431,377409,377374,377403,377382,377375,376533,377388,377410,377433,377420,377115,364611,377422,37652,50850,377389,377416,660,377415],"class_list":["post-804306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-s-chief-economist-paul-bloxham","tag-s-director","tag-s-plan","tag-s-state-budgets","tag-s-tax-changes","tag-overly-optimistic-revenue-forecasts","tag-150-billion","tag-3-6-billion","tag-44-billion","tag-10968","tag-89838","tag-a-couple","tag-a-falling-knife","tag-a-major-institution","tag-a-market","tag-a-statement","tag-a-total","tag-aa-ratings","tag-aaa","tag-abc-radio-brisbane","tag-an-additional-and-emerging-fiscal-risk","tag-an-unlikely-counterpart","tag-asia-pacific-public-finance-martin-foo","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-budget","tag-budget-surplus","tag-budgets","tag-business","tag-buyers","tag-canberra","tag-chalmers","tag-concerns","tag-counterpart","tag-debt","tag-deficit","tag-earlier-three-rate-hikes","tag-every-year","tag-fantasy-land","tag-first-home-buyers","tag-forecasts","tag-four-state-governments","tag-home-values","tag-hsbc","tag-investment-properties","tag-investor-demand","tag-its-highest-rating","tag-jim-chalmers","tag-july-2","tag-labor","tag-lower-home-values","tag-lower-property-prices","tag-lower-stamp-duty","tag-more-than-its-revenue","tag-mr-bloxham","tag-mr-chalmers","tag-negative-gearing","tag-newswire-martin-ollman","tag-newswire-photos","tag-nsw","tag-nsw-and-south-australia","tag-operating-expense-growth","tag-other-owner-occupiers","tag-our-budget-position","tag-parliament-house","tag-picture","tag-promised","tag-property-prices","tag-property-values","tag-qld","tag-queensland","tag-question-time","tag-quite-a-substantial-improvement","tag-recent-growth","tag-revenue","tag-sp","tag-sp-global","tag-savings","tag-snapp-business-now","tag-stamp-duty","tag-state-budget","tag-state-budgets","tag-states","tag-surpluses","tag-systemic-optimism","tag-tasmania","tag-tax","tag-tax-changes","tag-tax-policy","tag-that-medium-term-trajectory","tag-the-act","tag-the-beginning","tag-the-budget","tag-the-budget-bottom-line","tag-the-budget-position","tag-the-budget-projections","tag-the-capital-gains-tax-discount","tag-the-deficits","tag-the-federal-budget","tag-the-federal-government","tag-the-forward-estimates","tag-the-four-year-forecast-horizon","tag-the-government","tag-the-governments","tag-the-last-four-years","tag-the-market","tag-the-move","tag-the-next-five-years","tag-the-parliamentary-budget-office","tag-the-pbo","tag-the-rba","tag-the-recent-big-shifts","tag-the-red","tag-the-story","tag-the-tax-changes","tag-their-projected-annual-revenue","tag-these-spending-projections","tag-this-call","tag-this-country","tag-this-year","tag-total-state-debt","tag-treasurer","tag-treasurer-jim-chalmers","tag-uproar","tag-various-state-budget-downturns","tag-victoria","tag-western-australian-government"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/804306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=804306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/804306\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/804307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=804306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=804306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=804306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}