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WHAT’S GAMBLING REALLY COSTING YOU? Set a deposit limit. For Free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.<\/p>\n
How does The Run Home work?<\/p>\n
We\u2019re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it\u2019s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.<\/p>\n
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.<\/p>\n
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they\u2019d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it\u2019s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That\u2019s why almost all teams have a projection that\u2019s not a round number.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s all about probability, and it\u2019s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.<\/p>\n
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it\u2019s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you\u2019re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you\u2019ll make these projections look silly, but that\u2019s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.<\/p>\n
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we\u2019re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.<\/p>\n
“Rules for some, rules for others” | 00:36<\/p>\n
PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET<\/p>\n
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium<\/p>\n
First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBC at Adelaide Oval<\/p>\n
First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Geelong vs St Kilda at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Melbourne vs TBC at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG<\/p>\n
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.<\/p>\n
Epic scenes as Dons snap losing streak! | 00:45<\/p>\n
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER<\/p>\n
1. Fremantle (19.65 projected wins)<\/p>\n
2. Sydney Swans (16.75)<\/p>\n
3. Hawthorn (16.15)<\/p>\n
4. Brisbane Lions (15.35)<\/p>\n
5. Adelaide Crows (15.3)<\/p>\n
6. Melbourne (14.7)<\/p>\n
7. Geelong (13.8)<\/p>\n
8. Western Bulldogs (13.5)<\/p>\n
9. Collingwood (12.45)<\/p>\n
10. St Kilda (11)<\/p>\n
11. GWS Giants (10.75)<\/p>\n
12. Carlton (10.35)<\/p>\n
13. North Melbourne (9.3)<\/p>\n
14. Gold Coast Suns (9)<\/p>\n
15. Port Adelaide (8)<\/p>\n
16. West Coast Eagles (5.4)<\/p>\n
17. Richmond (2.9)<\/p>\n
18. Essendon (2.7)<\/p>\n
The Bombers are 18th because they\u2019re less likely to win another game, but have a clear percentage edge and should be favoured for 17th.<\/p>\n
McKay’s night is over after knee injury | 00:24<\/p>\n
Key Talking Points<\/p>\n
– Fremantle will be minor premiers for the first time since 2015;<\/p>\n
– Sydney\u2019s three losses from their past four games have created a true race for 2nd spot, though the Swans are still favoured because of a relatively easy run home (next week vs GWS excepted) and a strong percentage;<\/p>\n
– Hawthorn has the best chance of catching them, because they don\u2019t care about percentage, but has to play away to Brisbane in a few weeks\u2019 time. Adelaide is an outside chance with a few tougher games and Melbourne would need everything to go right, but is still in it;<\/p>\n
– More realistically, the Crows pretty much ensured they\u2019ll finish in the top six by beating the Swans. Geelong stayed in the hunt by beating the Saints, but can probably only catch the Demons from here, with next Friday night\u2019s Cats-Dees game at the MCG absolutely massive. The loser will be favoured to finish seventh and get stuck in the wildcard round;<\/p>\n
– The Western Bulldogs are almost locked into the finals, given they\u2019ve got 11 wins and Richmond next week. With their percentage there\u2019s a slim chance they\u2019d miss with 12, and little chance they\u2019d crack the top six, so it\u2019s whether they\u2019re finishing 7th or 8th;<\/p>\n
– What the hell, GWS?!<\/p>\n
– Collingwood should now play finals with one more win (and they get West Coast in a few weeks\u2019 time), and will definitely make it with two;<\/p>\n
– The Giants\u2019 awful loss to the Bombers means St Kilda is now projected to make the ten, with the best chance of reaching that magical 12-win mark. GWS can still definitely get to 11, but they\u2019d need to beat a contender for a 12th win (though to be fair we\u2019d have more confidence in them as underdogs than as favourites);<\/p>\n
– Even though they\u2019re just percentage out of 10th, Carlton\u2019s path to the finals is tough, because of their poor percentage and games left against Brisbane and Fremantle. They wouldn\u2019t win a tie on 11 wins, and nor would North Melbourne (and they\u2019ve got an even tougher run home), while Gold Coast is basically done. We wouldn\u2019t say the top 10 race is down to 11 teams… but we\u2019d still need a few more upsets for anyone outside of the top 11 to make it.<\/p>\n
See The Run Home with five rounds left.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can\u2019t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.<\/p>\n
1. FREMANTLE (16-2, 142%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest<\/p>\n
Just two teams have ever won 21 home and away games – the 2000 Bombers, and the 2008 Cats – though both of those sides only lost once in their 22-game campaigns. If you take season length into account, the Dockers can produce the seventh-best season in V\/AFL history by winning their five remaining games (also behind the 1929 Magpies, the 1908 Blues, the 1950 Bombers and 1918 Swans). As the number below suggests, the odds are the Dockers will drop one more game, but that would only matter for record purposes. After Sydney\u2019s loss, they look like certainties for the minor premiership.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 19.65 wins, finishing 1st<\/p>\n
Lots to work on, but they keep winning | 06:07<\/p>\n
2. SYDNEY SWANS (13-5, 128.3%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest<\/p>\n
Well, this losing skid is exactly why you win 12 of your first 14 games while building a percentage of nine bajillion. The Swans have given up most of their lead in the top-two race, but not all of it, effectively still sitting two wins ahead of Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne due to their strong percentage. It\u2019s theoretically possible they could be caught on that metric by those sides, but very unlikely. The bigger problem is Hawthorn, who with that additional two points from the draw don\u2019t care about percentage, and have a pretty easy run… except for Round 22, when they\u2019re away to Brisbane. If the Lions beat the Hawks, the Swans should still finish second as long as they win four of their last five, with their hardest remaining fixture being next week\u2019s Sydney Derby. So, Swans fans, there\u2019s no reason to panic… yet. (Although the fact your team can\u2019t beat another contender doesn\u2019t bode well for September.)<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 16.75 wins, finishing 2nd<\/p>\n
“We’ve got work to do!” | 05:36<\/p>\n
3. HAWTHORN (12-5-1, 118.4%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest<\/p>\n
And suddenly they\u2019ve got a real shot at finishing second. In a way, Adelaide\u2019s win over Sydney was a mixed bag, because it gives the Crows a better chance of passing the Hawks; but it also gives the Hawks a much better chance of passing the Swans, and earning a home qualifying final. Both sides have an easy last five weeks outside of one game – the Sydney Derby for the Swans, and the Brisbane road trip for the Hawks – but importantly Sam Mitchell\u2019s men don\u2019t care about Sydney\u2019s percentage lead. So if the Hawks win their last five, and the Swans slip up just one more time, it\u2019s a qualifying final at the MCG instead of the SCG. At the other end of the scale Hawthorn could still miss the top four though they\u2019d probably need to lose twice (most likely to Brisbane and Collingwood?), because Adelaide and Melbourne both have hard games against Fremantle left.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 16.15 wins, finishing 3rd<\/p>\n
Mitchell reacts to Mitch Lewis’ epic bag | 05:37<\/p>\n
4. BRISBANE LIONS (12-6, 117.8%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Port Adelaide at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest<\/p>\n
The Lions and Hawks were in a similar situation, needing to take care of business against lowly sides (tick and tick) after watching Sydney vs Adelaide with interest. Either way it was a good result; the Crows losing would\u2019ve given Brisbane a lot of breathing room in the top-four race, but now second spot remains gettable. We still have Sydney warmly favoured, especially since their percentage edge over Brisbane and Adelaide is basically like another win, and because we have Hawthorn expected to lose at least once (to Brisbane). The Lions probably would\u2019ve preferred the Crows losing, simply because making the top four at all is more important than a slightly improved chance of finishing second, especially with this side\u2019s strong track record of winning finals interstate. Still, a good weekend nonetheless.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 15.35 wins, finishing 4th<\/p>\n
‘You’ve got to stay in the hunt’ | 10:32<\/p>\n
5. ADELAIDE CROWS (12-6, 117.2%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest<\/p>\n
The Crows did themselves (along with Hawthorn, Brisbane and Melbourne) a huge favour by upsetting Sydney on Friday night. Not only has it massively increased Adelaide\u2019s chances of making the top four but it has opened up second spot. Admittedly it\u2019s still unlikely the Crows pinch it, because with Sydney\u2019s percentage edge they\u2019re effectively two wins ahead, so Matthew Nicks would have primarily been pleased to get four very valuable points. The last two weeks will be tricky, but if Adelaide wins its next three games it will sit inside the top four (ahead of the loser of Brisbane-Hawthorn in Round 22), and probably with a better percentage thanks to those games against the Bombers and Tigers. In that scenario, even with a loss to Fremantle, the Crows should go into Round 24 with a shot at third or fourth.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 15.3 wins, finishing 5th<\/p>\n
‘There’s a lot of belief here’ | 08:10<\/p>\n
6. MELBOURNE (12-6, 109.6%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Geelong at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest<\/p>\n
The Demons are, remarkably, still a chance of finishing 2nd – they\u2019d probably need to win out while Sydney loses twice, and Hawthorn, Brisbane and Adelaide all lose once. That\u2019s not a crazy scenario but it\u2019s not super likely either. More realistically, the Dees just need to focus on next week against Geelong, because beating Steven King\u2019s old side would virtually lock them into the top six. The top four would be a very live possibility too, though percentage is an issue. Should the Cats win, and the Dees then drop one more game (presumably to Fremantle), then King\u2019s men (all of them) are likely to finish 7th. Which would still be exciting, and have them favoured in an MCG final, but this team is good enough to aim for more than just a wildcard participation trophy.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 14.7 wins, finishing 6th<\/p>\n
Match up with anyone, home or away | 08:02<\/p>\n
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-7, 93.2%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest<\/p>\n
Sunday\u2019s win over the Suns should get the Bulldogs into the finals. With their percentage, there are scenarios where they\u2019d miss the top 10 with 12 wins, but it\u2019s very unlikely especially after GWS\u2019 loss to Essendon. Even though we\u2019re down on the Dogs more broadly, having beaten Gold Coast (plus a few genuine contenders – even if the margins were tight!), they\u2019re definitely good enough to beat at least one of Richmond, North Melbourne or Carlton. Their percentage probably still means they can\u2019t crack the top six though; their realistic best-case scenario would be going into Round 24 playing Melbourne for 6th. (The Bulldogs playing for position in the final round? Nah, that\u2019d never happen.)<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 13.5 wins, finishing 8th<\/p>\n
Bevo on Bulldogs’ nervous finish v Suns | 07:42<\/p>\n
8. COLLINGWOOD (10-7-1, 105.6%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Geelong at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest<\/p>\n
They\u2019ve got a two-and-a-half win margin with five weeks left, and they may need all of it. The Magpies\u2019 post-bye period was always going to be split in two – the easy bit (where they\u2019ve gone 5-0) and the hard bit, which starts this Thursday night in Adelaide. One win could be enough to get the Pies into the finals, especially after GWS\u2019 loss to Essendon, but two definitely will be. So assuming they can beat West Coast in a few weeks\u2019 time – no sure thing, as Brisbane found out this weekend – they\u2019ll have four throws at the dartboard. (The dartboard in this metaphor being the wildcard round, we guess?) They will be underdogs in all four games against the Crows, Cats, Hawks and Lions, but we suspect they\u2019ll find a way to win at least one of them.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 12.45 wins, finishing 9th<\/p>\n
‘Finding answers when we needed them’ | 07:40<\/p>\n
9. GEELONG (10-8, 116.2%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest<\/p>\n
At least the worst-case scenario, of missing the finals entirely, should be off the table thanks to Thursday night\u2019s win over the Saints. But with Adelaide beating Sydney, the Cats\u2019 path to the top four looks extremely narrow. They could win out and hope for the best but it\u2019s likely they wouldn\u2019t pass two of Hawthorn, Brisbane and Adelaide. So the real question is whether they can return to the top six, and that\u2019ll be decided in the most important game of the home and away season left (period) – next week against Melbourne. If the Cats lose to the Demons, it\u2019s very hard to see them avoiding the wildcard round. If the Cats win, then they just need to take care of business in their last four games, while hoping Melbourne loses once more (probably to Fremantle in Round 22). Massive game… though without Max Holmes none of this may matter, anyway.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 13.8 wins, finishing 7th<\/p>\n
Scott: ‘Not surprised’ after big win | 08:47<\/p>\n
10. ST KILDA (8-10, 104%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Sydney at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest<\/p>\n
Thanks, Essendon! Thursday night was one of the Saints\u2019 worst performances of the year, but the Bombers\u2019 utterly bonkers upset of GWS sees them move into our projected top 10, with a much clearer path to the magical number of 12 wins. Beat the Kangaroos, Blues, Tigers and Suns as they should and St Kilda will play finals. Even if they beat three of them, they could make it on percentage. Whatever happens from here there\u2019s a good chance St Kilda vs Gold Coast is the \u2018live ladder watch\u2019 game in Round 24, where the Saints have to win by a certain amount to play finals (or host one?).<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 11 wins, finishing 11th<\/p>\n
Ross fires up over Marshall trade rumour | 09:32<\/p>\n
11. GWS GIANTS (8-10, 101.3%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Sydney at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest<\/p>\n
Luckily for the Giants, and for Melbourne, the AFL has not yet passed a rule that says you can\u2019t play finals if you lose to Essendon. They\u2019re now the least predictable team in footy history, somehow beating Fremantle and Brisbane yet losing to Essendon and West Coast. It all evens out in the end, we guess? But it also means the orange team has to figure out what the hell went wrong in that awful performance, and fix it for next Saturday\u2019s derby. 12 wins should definitely get you into the finals now, but we would only have them favoured in three of their last five… could they get stuck on 11 wins, and miss out? They\u2019ve at least got a percentage lead on Carlton and North Melbourne.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 11.75 wins, finishing 10th<\/p>\n
HORROR MISS! Cox’s point blank blunder | 00:26<\/p>\n
12. CARLTON (8-10, 91.1%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Brisbane at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest<\/p>\n
That light at the end of the tunnel has definitely dimmed, but the Bombers\u2019 stunning upset of the Giants kept it visible. We wouldn\u2019t be shocked if Carlton got to 11 wins, by beating Gold Coast, St Kilda and the Bulldogs, but finding a 12th win is much harder – and with their percentage they are likely to need 12 to play finals. It\u2019s still gonna be tough from here but Essendon has kept them in the hunt.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 10.35 wins, finishing 12th<\/p>\n
“Slow to get our game going!” | 07:30<\/p>\n
13. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-10, 90.9%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Sydney at the SCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest<\/p>\n
Well, they\u2019re only percentage out of 10th, but look at that fixture. They\u2019ll probably still need to win four more games to make the wildcard, due to their percentage, which seems pretty implausible. Let\u2019s just see them beat the Saints first.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 9.3 wins, finishing 13th<\/p>\n
‘Learn to put our foot on the throat’ | 09:32<\/p>\n
14. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-11, 95.3%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Melbourne at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: GWS at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Brisbane at the Gabba, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest<\/p>\n
If they win all five of their remaining games, they would have a pretty good chance (let\u2019s say 60%) of playing finals. Maybe they could even sneak in on percentage if they win four. But we would be very surprised if they win four of their remaining games, never mind five. Basically, if Dimma had just waited a week before saying they were done, we wouldn\u2019t have all made such a fuss…<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 9 wins, finishing 14th<\/p>\n
Dimma calls for Suns to capitalise | 07:11<\/p>\n
OUT OF CONTENTION<\/p>\n
15. PORT ADELAIDE (6-12, 99.3%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Brisbane at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 8 wins, finishing 15th<\/p>\n
16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-14, 72.1%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 5.4 wins, finishing 16th<\/p>\n
17. ESSENDON (2-16, 67.9%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Sydney at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 2.7 wins, finishing 18th<\/p>\n
18. RICHMOND (2-16, 61.7%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 20: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 21: West Coast at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: St Kilda at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 2.9 wins, finishing 17th<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s be clear – we would consider Richmond the favourite for 18th, because of their percentage. But they have a slightly easier run home (due to that Round 21 game against West Coast), so they\u2019re more likely to find a third win. That\u2019s how you should read our numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sydney\u2019s sudden slide has opened up the race for the top two – while Essendon has, unbelievably, had…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":810119,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-810118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=810118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810118\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/810119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=810118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=810118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=810118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}