New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\nBrisbane\u2019s upset win leaves them with a minuscule hope, but they\u2019ll need to win out. <\/p>\n
On the other end of the table, Penrith\u2019s loss has opened the door for the Warriors, Roosters and even Sharks to swoop late and collect the minor premiership.<\/p>\n
The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers and based on team ratings, the remaining games have been simulated 100,000 times, with the venues adding a little extra weighting to find out where the teams will finish on the ladder.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s take a look at each team\u2019s run home.<\/p>\n
1. PENRITH PANTHERS (32 points, +278)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 1st <\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 99.8%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 75%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Eels (A), Raiders (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: The Panthers may be on shaky ground in recent weeks, having lost three of their last four games, but they\u2019re still locked into the finals and in prime position to win the minor premiership. Penrith has a two-point buffer on the Warriors and Roosters and a far superior for-and-against too, which means the Panthers effectively have a four-point gap to work with. They play both the Warriors and Roosters in the run home, so wins there would pretty well guarantee them first place. Outside of those two games, the Panthers play teams outside of the top eight to close out the year so even if they drop the matches against the Roosters and Warriors they are in a strong position to still take the minor premiership.<\/p>\n
2. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (30 points, +202)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 2nd<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 95.3%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 15%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Titans (A), Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: The Warriors have a genuine shot at winning the minor premiership if the Panthers stumble, with their Round 23 clash against the four-time premiers key. If they can win that, the Warriors have a relatively favourable run home \u2014 although games against the Rabbitohs, Knights and Sea Eagles won\u2019t be easy given all those teams won\u2019t be short on motivation at the back-end of the season. It helps that two of those three games will be at home, while the Warriors also host the Panthers at Go Media Stadium.<\/p>\n
3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (30 points, +84)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 4th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.8%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 84.7%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 7%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Knights (A), Cowboys, (A), Bulldogs (H), Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: An unconvincing win over a depleted Storm last week has seen the tricolours all of a sudden come into minor premiership contention following Penrith\u2019s loss. The Fox Sports Lab has increased their minor premiership hopes by nearly five per cent since last week. The next fortnight on the road will be tough against the Knights and Cowboys and may decide their top four hopes. They still have to play Penrith, who they\u2019ve beaten just once in nearly seven seasons.<\/p>\n
Young delivers message to Dragons fans | 02:48<\/p>\n
4. CRONULLA SHARKS (28 points, +125)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 3rd<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.8%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 87.1%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 3%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Storm (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: According to the Fox Sports Lab they have the easiest draw for the run home which is why they\u2019re predicted to leapfrog the Roosters late. None of the teams they face on the way home are currently in super form so their first true test will be Week 1 of the finals. Will a soft run into the finals potentially be harmful? Coach Craig Fitzgibbon would probably like to see a low-scoring, grinding win somewhere between now and the finals to toughen them up for a probable match against a top four side. <\/p>\n
5. DOLPHINS (26 points, +84)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 5th <\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 93.3%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 16.2%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: BYE, Dragons (A), Broncos (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H), Roosters (A), Titans (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: The Dolphins are back in top four contention after beating the Cowboys last weekend and are now rated by the Fox Sports Lab a 16.2 per cent chance of getting a second chance in the finals. With the bye this week, they\u2019ll be watching the Sharks who are just two points ahead of them on the ladder. The recent 66-0 flogging to Cronulla really dealt a blow to their for-and-against however. Isaiya Katoa will be back next week or the week after which further boosts them.<\/p>\n
6. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (26 points, +37)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 7th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 80.9%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 6.2%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0% <\/p>\n
Remaining games: Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (A), Titans (H), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), BYE<\/p>\n
Analysis: Tight back-to-back losses look to have ended their top four chances but the Fox Sports Lab still rates their finals hopes high. They\u2019re going to need to be at their best to make the finals because none of their remaining six matches would be considered easy. They probably only need two wins to sneak into the eight. This next six weeks is what they\u2019re paying million dollar men Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown for. They play well and the Knights might even jag a home final. <\/p>\n
Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown will need to be prolific over the next few weeks if the Knights want to sneak into the top four.Source: News Corp Australia<\/p>\n
7. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (24 points, +76)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 6th <\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 77.7%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 7.5%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Storm (H), Sharks (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A), Warriors (H), Titans (A), Roosters (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: Last week\u2019s disappointing loss in Canberra has slashed their top four hopes in half. They haven\u2019t been about to string more than two wins in a row together all year. They\u2019re getting their nemesis the Storm at a good time this week as they play their next three at home. They need to win four of their final seven to guarantee a finals spot and must take advantage of games against the Eels and Titans.<\/p>\n
8. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (24 points, -36)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 8th <\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 68.2%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 2.2%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Broncos (H), Roosters (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: The Cowboys would love to end big brother Brisbane\u2019s season this weekend at home. They have one of the easiest runs home according to the Fox Sports Lab. They only play one team above them on the ladder (Roosters), so there are no excuses for Todd Payten\u2019s men who also only travel away two more times until the finals. They\u2019ve just got to find consistency. They can\u2019t string a bunch of wins together. Their soft draw should get them into the finals but so far they look to be making up the numbers. <\/p>\n
9. MANLY SEA EAGLES (22 points, +126)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 9th <\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 45.6%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 1.1%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Sharks (H), BYE, Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: Following last week\u2019s loss to the Titans they\u2019re now rated worse than 50 per cent to make the finals. To make matters worse, they\u2019ll have to make their run without their best player, Tom Trbojevic, who tore his hamstring yet again on the weekend. They\u2019ve won just two of their past seven and need to win at least four of their final six games to play finals. They need to start taking advantage of their home games starting this weekend. Away fixtures against the Storm and Knights are winnable. <\/p>\n
The pressure is on Kieran Foran and the Sea Eagles.Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
10. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (22 points, -70)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 10th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 20.4%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Warriors (H), Storm (A), Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Panthers (A), Broncos (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: The Bulldogs won well last weekend which helps their ordinary points differential. They now just sit two points outside the top eight but are still only rated a one in five chance of progressing. The reason being is their dreadful run home. It\u2019s the toughest in the comp, with the only two games against teams currently below them on the ladder (Storm, Dragons). <\/p>\n
11. MELBOURNE STORM (20 points, -10)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 12th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 6.7%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (H), BYE, Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: It\u2019s surreal seeing the Storm in this position. Barring the year they lost all their points for the salary cap scandal, Melbourne have never missed the eight since Craig Bellamy was appointed head coach in 2003. The continue that stunning streak, the Storm will have to win at least five of their last six. What\u2019s in their favour is that they have an OK points differential. <\/p>\n
12. CANBERRA RAIDERS (20 points, -81)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 11th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 4.8%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Tigers (H), Panthers (A), Knights (H), Sharks (A), Broncos (H), BYE, Cowboys (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: Canberra are up and about after three straight wins which they should increase to four this weekend when they take on the out-of-sorts Tigers. With a couple of teams getting the wobbles around the bottom or cusp of the top eight, the Raiders will be looking to pounce. If they beat the Tigers then manage to upset Penrith next week, their top eight odds with the Fox Sports Lab will spike significantly. <\/p>\n
13. BRISBANE BRONCOS (18 points, -124)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 13th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 1.8%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Knights (H), Dolphins (A), Warriors (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: Brisbane kept their slim, slim finals hopes alive with an upset win over Penrith last Thursday night, increasing their top eight odds to 1.8%. This team is talented enough and has the horsepower to win their next seven games and if they can beat the Panthers, they can beat anyone. There are a couple of tough games left, beginning with the Cowboys in Townsville on Saturday, but with a clean bill of health, they can\u2019t be ruled out. <\/p>\n
‘I believe they sacked Kevvie too early’ | 08:24<\/p>\n
14. WESTS TIGERS (18 points, -162)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 15th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Raiders (A), Eels (H), BYE, Dragons (H), Roosters (A), Cowboys (A), Panthers (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: A once promising season has nosedived. The Tigers are looking like the Tigers of the past few seasons. Their finals hopes are hanging by a literal thread. Yes, they can advance if they win out, but given their current form, that looks to be an impossible task. Their next assignment is up against the high-flying Raiders.<\/p>\n
15. PARRAMATTA EELS (18 points, -176)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 14th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.6%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Panthers (H), Tigers (A), Rabbitohs (A), Cowboys (H), Dolphins (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (A)<\/p>\n
Analysis: The Eels have once again endured a poor campaign, but come into what shapes as a huge game for the Parramatta club against their cross-town rivals. You could argue it\u2019s a good time to face Penrith after they lost to the Broncos a week earlier, or it could mean Ivan Cleary\u2019s men will be desperate to bounce back. Regardless, it\u2019s a tough period looming for the Eels to close out the year, facing five teams all in contention.<\/p>\n
“Why is Ryles protected in Sydney?” | 03:27<\/p>\n
16. GOLD COAST TITANS (16 points, -106)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 16th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.3%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Dragons (A), Warriors (H), Cowboys (H), Knights (A), Sharks (H), Rabbitohs (H), Dolphins (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: The Titans got a win over their old teammate Kieran Foran and the Sea Eagles in Round 20, scoring 38 points. However, they also conceded 32 and that defensive effort won\u2019t cut it on their run home against some strong attacking sides. The Gold Coast can put more distance between themselves and the wooden spoon with a win over the Dragons, but will need to fix their defensive troubles against the Warriors, Cowboys and Knights in the proceeding weeks otherwise they could be staring down the barrel of some huge scorelines.<\/p>\n
17. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (10 points, -247)<\/p>\n
Predicted finish: 17th<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of finishing top four: 0%<\/p>\n
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%<\/p>\n
Remaining games: Titans (H), Dolphins (H), Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H)<\/p>\n
Analysis: After yet another loss, and a Titans victory in Round 20, the chances of the Dragons taking home the wooden spoon have now boosted up to 91.2 per cent. It\u2019s a tough pill to swallow for the Red V, who have shown improvements in recent weeks and Dean Young is doing a solid job with what he has at his disposal. However, the Dragons face a massive clash in Round 21 in their slim bid to avoid the wooden spoon when they take on the Titans. Then they face two even tougher tests against the Dolphins and Sharks, and three more losses would mean they slip even further away from the teams above them to compound what has been a horror season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With seven rounds remaining, all but one team remain in the hunt for a finals spot. Last weekend\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":815132,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[568],"tags":[64,63,761,762,158,85],"class_list":["post-815131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nrl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-national-rugby-league","tag-nationalrugbyleague","tag-nrl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=815131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815131\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/815132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=815131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=815131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=815131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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