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Of the big four banks, only Westpac expects a rate hike come August 11.<\/p>\n
A shock spike has wiped out a guaranteed hold come the Reserve Bank\u2019s next rate call in August \u2013 with a big bank already predicting a hike.<\/p>\n
Three weeks out from the next RBA monetary policy board meeting, the market has begun pricing in protection against the risk of a surprise rate hike \u2013 admitting a 100 per cent probability of a hold is no longer on the cards.<\/p>\n
MORE: $16k hidden fee nearly killed new home dream<\/a><\/p>\n Aus pub baron\u2019s trashed island exposed<\/a><\/p>\n The ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures August 2026 contract as at July 20. Source: ASX<\/p>\n The ASX Rate Tracker crossed the 20 per cent threshold Monday, after jumping 6 percentage points, with the ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures August 2026 contract trading at 95.615 \u2013 indicating a 22 per cent expectation of an interest-rate increase to 4.6 per cent come August 11.<\/p>\n The jump is a surprise given it had been happily treading water at 16 per cent for over a week, and crucial data drops are yet to occur \u2013 including Thursday\u2019s employment figures and next Wednesday\u2019s inflation update.<\/p>\n Canstar.com.au group manager research Josh Sale said \u201cthe next three weeks will decide whether that fourth hike arrives\u201d.<\/p>\n Homeowners have a tough six months ahead as the RBA balances inflation and employment uncertainty. Picture: Brook Mitchell\/Getty Images<\/p>\n \u201cThursday\u2019s labour force figures and next week\u2019s June quarter inflation data are the final major inputs before the RBA\u2019s August 11 decision, and the board has made it clear it will do whatever it takes to bring inflation down, including hiking again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cWestpac still has an August hike pencilled in on the way to a forecast peak of 4.85 per cent. If it lands, a borrower with a $600,000 loan at the start of the year would be paying an extra $92 a month, taking the total added cost of 2026\u2019s hikes to $364 a month.\u201d<\/p>\n Other banks may not be vocal about their interest rate expectations but six providers cut term deposit rates this week by an average of 0.14 percentage points, with only Westpac and ANZ lifting two rates by an average of 0.08 percentage points.<\/p>\n Owner occupied P & I rate movement summary. Source: Canstar.com.au<\/p>\n Mr Sale said \u201cbanks trimming term deposit rates while the RBA is still open to further rate hikes, if needed, tells you where they think this cycle ends\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cNone of the majors expect rate cuts before 2027, but no bank wants to be locked into paying today\u2019s rates on money it holds for years after the cash rate turns.\u201d<\/p>\n He said \u201cfor households copping higher repayments, some of the quickest budget relief sits outside the mortgage entirely\u201d now.<\/p>\n Canstar\u2019s database shows a Sydney household on an average-priced electricity plan could save $374 a year by switching to the lowest plan, while the gap in Brisbane is $543 and in Adelaide $516. <\/p>\n \u201cWhen every rate decision is out of your hands, the bills you can control matter more than ever,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Of the big four banks, only Westpac expects a rate hike come August 11. A shock spike has…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":815760,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[64,63,99],"class_list":["post-815759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=815759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/815759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/815760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=815759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=815759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=815759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<\/p>\n
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