Baseball\u2019s trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and if you thought we\u2019d know by now exactly who\u2019s buying and who\u2019s selling, then you really haven\u2019t been paying attention to this season full of teams stuck in the middle.<\/p>\n
With the expanded playoffs and an abundance of American League mediocrity, only eight teams entered this week with less than 10 percent playoff odds on FanGraphs (and one of those, the Washington Nationals, had hit enough to remain in the wild-card conversation despite their long odds of actually advancing).<\/p>\n
So, there are relatively few sellers, and only a handful of buyers who are in position to be particularly aggressive \u2014 at least for now. Things can change in a hurry (just ask the suddenly red-hot Boston Red Sox).<\/p>\n
Here, then, is our second attempt to group all 30 teams into seven trade tiers. And there\u2019s been some movement since we last tried this exercise<\/a> three weeks ago.<\/p>\n Tier 1: Could be (should be?) aggressive buyers RP, 3B, C<\/p>\n SP, RP, IF<\/p>\n RF, RP<\/p>\n SP, RP<\/p>\n OF, RP<\/p>\n Two types of teams should aggressively buy at the deadline: teams with a legitimate chance to win a championship and teams on the fringes of contention who could use a major boost to get to the postseason.<\/p>\n Our top four teams here fit the first category. The Yankees should see a mediocre American League as an opportunity for a second pennant in three years; Aaron Judge\u2019s uncertain injury status applies more pressure to do something at the deadline to chase down the Rays in the AL East. The Brewers look even stronger than they did last year, when they finished the year with baseball\u2019s best record. A major addition could be the difference in taking down the Dodgers.<\/p>\n The Phillies and Cubs are a step below Milwaukee right now but are facing a time crunch with their rosters. This might be their best chance to win in the next few seasons.<\/p>\n And then there\u2019s the Pirates, who fit our latter qualification to buy aggressively. Pittsburgh is in the thick of the race for the third wild card with Miami and Arizona. Unlike the Diamondbacks, the Pirates own a sparkling run differential and third-order winning percentage. Unlike the Marlins, their playoff drought runs more than a decade. Unlike both, they have the ticking clock of Paul Skenes\u2019 team control. Buying big at the deadline could get the Buccos to October.<\/p>\n Tier 2: Typical buyers<\/p>\n These teams all possess postseason odds of at least 70 percent and legitimate chances to win their respective divisions. (Only Cleveland isn\u2019t currently in first place, and it\u2019s just a percentage point behind the White Sox.) You can make a case here for each team to be especially aggressive at the deadline to affect its chances of actually winning a championship. But adding the one or two pieces they need to solidify a berth in the postseason is the bare minimum.<\/p>\n Tier 3: Trending to the buy side RP<\/p>\n IF, RP<\/p>\n SP, RP<\/p>\n OF, CIF, SP<\/p>\n 1B, SP, RP<\/p>\n SP, RP<\/p>\n SP, OF<\/p>\n OF, SP<\/p>\n Ooh boy, it\u2019s a big group this time around. The Rangers and White Sox lead their respective divisions, and we get it if you think they should be typical buyers. But Texas is just above .500, and Chicago is ahead of schedule, so we\u2019re being a little bit cautious with them 10 days out.<\/p>\n Boston\u2019s winning streak has pushed it from well outside the picture into postseason odds over 60 percent. That\u2019s the definition of trending to the buy side. Same with Baltimore, whose own streak has gotten it back into the picture in the American League. The Marlins and Diamondbacks \u2014 and maybe still the Cardinals, though we\u2019ve bumped them out of this tier \u2014 have been streakier this season, but each has a legit shot at the playoffs at the moment. (We like Miami the most of this group, but it had a tough week around the All-Star Game.)<\/p>\n The Twins and Astros remain in the hunt for both their respective divisions and a wild card, though Houston\u2019s recent play has it slipping from the picture<\/a>. If not for the urgency around general manager Dana Brown for this season, we\u2019d probably bump the Astros down a tier.<\/p>\n Tier 4: The hinge teams SP, bat<\/p>\n RP<\/p>\n SP, RP<\/p>\n 1B, SS<\/p>\n SP, OF<\/p>\n SP, CF<\/p>\n OF, RP<\/p>\n SP<\/p>\n Our Tier 4 label is usually \u201ctailors,\u201d and we fill it with teams likely to thread the needle between buying and selling. We might see some teams do that this year \u2014 some of the Tier 4 teams trending toward the buy side could ultimately end up buying and selling \u2014 but this year, perhaps more than in the past, we need this middle category for teams truly on the fence, even this close to the deadline.<\/p>\n The Padres are still in the wild-card hunt, but they\u2019ve had a losing record every month since the end of April. The Nationals have exceeded expectations, but they\u2019re hovering right at .500 and haven\u2019t played especially well since early July. The Blue Jays have been waiting and waiting for things to turn around, but here they are in last place in the AL East with significant pieces (Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, George Springer) approaching free agency at the end of the season.<\/p>\n And, most hinge-y of all are the Tigers, who have been pretty good lately but were so unthinkably bad in May that they\u2019re still well below .500 while hanging onto the biggest trade chip in ace Tarik Skubal. This next week and a half could determine whether the Tigers go all-in to make a championship run with three strong top starters or give up entirely and trade Skubal, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty and Gleyber Torres.<\/p>\n Tier 5: Trending to the sell side<\/p>\n This is what happens when there\u2019s parity in the middle of each league: We end up with only two uncertain teams clearly trending to the sell side as the trade deadline approaches (and one of those teams is probably trending more toward a hinge than a sale).<\/p>\n The Cardinals are the ones basically in the middle. They were trending heavily to the buy side for much of the season, but they\u2019ve been bad enough in July to wonder if threading the needle might be their best-case scenario. (Though their most obvious trade chip, Dustin May, is also trending the wrong direction, and if they try to buy and sell, they\u2019d most want to buy a starting pitcher.)<\/p>\n The Reds were in the playoff race for a while, but their run differential never supported that early-season record, and now they\u2019ve fallen unmistakably to the bottom of the NL Central. The Athletic reported last week<\/a> that the Reds \u201cmay not fully classify themselves as sellers, but they\u2019ve made it known they\u2019re open for business for teams looking to buy.\u201d Sounds like a trending seller to us.<\/p>\n Tier 6: Typical sellers OF, SP<\/p>\n SP, C, OF, RP<\/p>\n SP, RP<\/p>\n Last time we did this, the Athletics were trending to the buy side, but just barely. They were a little below .500, but the AL West was a mess and FanGraphs was still giving them an 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. Key players were getting hurt, but enough was going right to think the A\u2019s might buy a little (or, at least, not sell aggressively).<\/p>\n Then they lost 10 in a row, and the A\u2019s entered this week having lost 15 of 17.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a hard swing in the wrong direction, enough to jump past Tiers 4 and 5 and straight to Tier 6 with a couple of other typical sellers who clearly are not going to make the playoffs but also don\u2019t have the types of trade chips to make an aggressive deadline particularly likely.<\/p>\n Tier 7: Could be (should be) aggressive sellers 1B, SS, SP<\/p>\n SP, RP<\/p>\n SP, OF<\/p>\n
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