{"id":816837,"date":"2026-07-22T15:51:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T15:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/816837\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T15:51:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T15:51:34","slug":"ufc-abu-dhabi-main-card-odds-breakdowns-and-predictions-x-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/816837\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Abu Dhabi main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor"},"content":{"rendered":"

This weekend (Sat., July 25, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for UFC Abu Dhabi<\/a>. Generally, the promotion stacks the card when heading to the Middle East, but this card is a slight exception. It\u2019s better than the average Apex affair, certainly, but still only features a handful of ranked athletes and quality prospects. Though it\u2019s a bummer that Khalil Rountree Jr. was forced to withdraw from his planned main event versus Magomed Ankalaev (details here<\/a>), Bogdan Guskov is a perfectly acceptable replacement who can be trusted to bring the fight to \u201cBig Ank.\u201d<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event:<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 01: (L-R) Ramazan Temirov of Uzbekistan punches Charles Johnson in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on March 01, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Flyweight: Steve Erceg (-136)<\/a> vs. Ramazan Temirov (+106)
<\/a>Best Win for Erceg? Tim Elliott For Temirov? Charles Johnson
Current Streak: Erceg has won two straight, while Temirov is 2-0 in the UFC
X-Factor: Temirov is coming off a PED suspension
How these two match up: Expect the Flyweights to bring the action here.<\/p>\n

On the strength of his boxing and slick scrambling, Erceg nearly captured 125-pound gold in just his fourth UFC appearance. A trio of losses sent the Aussie standout back down to Earth, but he\u2019s since rebounded well to remain a ranked standout who can hopefully climb back into contention. Temirov, meanwhile, hasn\u2019t lost a fight since 2019. A very physical wrestler with surprising power in his hands, Temirov pushes a hard pace and seeks to overwhelm his opposition with activity.<\/p>\n

Eight fights into his career, I think we understand Erceg\u2019s strengths and weaknesses well. He\u2019s a strong counter wrestler who is able to scramble with the best of \u2018em, which is why he was able to resist Alexandre Pantoja\u2019s fearsome grappling so well in his title fight. However, he struggles in the face of pure power and speed, as he\u2019s more of a technician than freak athlete.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s interesting is that Temirov is both a wrestling-first fighter and outstanding athlete. His overall style should play into Erceg\u2019s game well, yet he also might just blow him out of the water with hard punches in the first round. Or, more likely, we get some combination of the two resulting in a competitive fight that Erceg wins large portions of betwen getting hurt.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, I don\u2019t think Temirov\u2019s wrestling is as dominant as somebody like Asu Almabayev. Erceg should get enough opportunities to reverse or exchange that his technical edge is present, allowing him to narrowly take home a third straight win.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Erceg via decision<\/p>\n

\"NEW<\/a><\/p>\n

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JULY 19: Islam Dulatov of Germany (R) strikes Adam Fugitt of the United States during their welterweight bout during UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3 at the Smoothie King Center on July 19, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n

Welterweight: Islam Dulatov (-850)<\/a> vs. Wellington Turman (+500)
<\/a>Best Win for Dulatov? Adam Fugitt For Turman? Misha Cirkunov
Current Streak: Dulatov recently won his UFC debut, while Turman has lost three straight
X-Factor: Dulatov hasn\u2019t beaten anyone that great
How these two match up: Look how they\u2019re massacring my boy!<\/p>\n

Dulatov, 27, is a top Welterweight prospect with an aggressive style that produces finishes on the floor and feet alike. He pushes a hard pace and throws heat, building smart combinations of power shots. He starts fast and has scored a majority of his finishes in the first round.<\/p>\n

Turman is one of those unfortunate fighters who have cool technical abilities without the physical talents needed to succeed at UFC\u2019s level. A solid wrestler with slick grappling, Turman is just painfully hittable at times and doesn\u2019t have have the chin to shake off clean connections.<\/p>\n

I have a soft spot for Turman, but this reads like a scheduled execution. Dulatov starts so fast and picks his shots so well \u2014 he\u2019s going to clobber Turman, who is unlikely to be able to take down and athletic youngster like Dulatov in the early goings. If Turman survives to round two, maybe this fight gets interesting.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Dulatov via knockout<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 07: (L-R) Magomed Zaynukov of Russia kicks Lucas Caldas of Brazil in a lightweight fight during Dana White\u2019s Contender Series season nine, week nine at UFC APEX on October 07, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Lightweight: Magomed Zaynukov (-370)<\/a> vs. Damian Rzepecki (+265)
<\/a>Best Win for Zaynukov? Lucas Caldas For Rzepecki? Marcin Jab\u0142onski
Current Streak: Both undefeated Lightweights are making their UFC debut
X-Factor: Potential UFC jitters
How these two match up: If, like me, you read this matchup and wondered, \u201cWho the f\u2014k is Magomed Zaynukov?\u201d allow me to help out: it\u2019s John Pork!<\/a><\/p>\n

Also known as \u201cChanco,\u201d there\u2019s some real hype behind Islam Makhachev\u2019s sparring partner. A decorated Muay Thai champion, Zaynukov is a very slick striker who sets up his kicks really well. The 31-year-old Russian pushes a really high pace, and as one would expect, he can wrestle pretty well too!<\/p>\n

Rzepecki, 24, is an all-action fighter who is not afraid of a firefight. The Polish prospect is also a high-volume fighter, using pressure, body punches, and clinch work to break down his opposition. On the canvas, Rzepecki \u2014 a primary sparring partner of Ilia Topuria \u2014 has a solid submission game specializing in chokes.<\/p>\n

Fun fact: Rzepecki made his amateur mixed martial arts (MMA) debut 12 years ago at just 12 years of age. Crazy!<\/p>\n

This feels like a much closer matchup than the odds would indicate, as both should be considered strong Lightweight prospects overall. Zaynukov has the more decorated Muay Thai background, but it\u2019s not like he\u2019s beaten better competition in the cage. Plus, Rzebecki is the more proven finisher and likely the superior ground fighter. Is the \u201cJohn Pork\u201d hype really worth so much on the betting lines?<\/p>\n

Anyway, I\u2019m expect a car crash. Rzebecki loves to crash forward with extended combinations, and Zaynukov isn\u2019t going to back away from trades. The question is whether Rzebecki will be able to parlay his offensive striking into takedowns and front choke attempts or if \u201cChanco\u201d uses his volume against him to land harder counter shots.<\/p>\n

I lean toward the more experienced kickboxer landing the more definitive blows, but an upset wouldn\u2019t shock me.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Zaynukov via decision<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 07: (R-L) Rizvan Kuniev of Russia knees Jailton Almeida of Brazil in a heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Meta APEX on February 07, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Heavyweight: Rizvan Kuniev (-310)<\/a> vs. Tyrell Fortune (+230)
<\/a>Best Win for Kuniev? Jailton Almeida For Fortune? Marcin Tybura
Current Streak: Kuniev won his last bout, while Fortune recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: Fortune is the heavier hitter
How these two match up: Heavyweights who don\u2019t finish good opponents that often \u2014 scary stuff.<\/p>\n

This is a collision of ex-PFL veterans. Kuniev has made a couple things clear in his pair of UFC fights: he\u2019s big, hard to take down, and by God, he\u2019s hard to watch. Kuniev can box well enough, but he\u2019s not exactly one to really press his advantage. Though the more natural knockout artist, Fortune isn\u2019t particularly high-volume either. He\u2019s the better offensive wrestler though, capable of quickly level changing into a nice double leg takedown.<\/p>\n

My expectations are low here. I\u2019m expected a boxing match with the occasional (unsuccessful) shot from Fortune, likely broken up by some extended clinch work along the fence. There are big boys with respectable power, so there\u2019s always hope that they just slug it out and the fight is over in the opening two minutes. I\u2019d love to see it!<\/p>\n

More likely, Kuniev throws a little more and lands at a slightly higher clip for an uneventful nod.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Kuniev via decision<\/p>\n

\"DOHA,<\/a><\/p>\n

DOHA, QATAR – NOVEMBER 22: (L-R) Saygid Izagakhmaev takes down Nicolas Dalby of Denmark in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at ABHA Arena on November 22, 2025 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Welterweight: Abubakar Vagaev (tbd)<\/a> vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (tbd)
<\/a>Best Win for Vagaev? Albert Tumenov For Izagakhmaev? Shinya Aoki
Current Streak: Vagaev debuts having won three straight, whereas Izagakhmaev recently lost his UFC debut
X-Factor: Vagaev has to pass a drug test \u2026
How these two match up: Quality wrestlers will collide in the UFC Abu Dhabi main card curtain-jerker.<\/p>\n

There are a pair of stereotypes around former ACA champs like Vagaev. First and foremost, they\u2019re excellent fighters. Secondly, the drug-testing in ACA is non-existent, so don\u2019t be surprised if Vagaev shows up in the Octagon with slightly smaller trapezius muscles. Regardless, Vagaev is an excellent wrestler who relies on clinch and cage work to grind down his opposition. Izagakhmaev, meanwhile, is a Combat Sambo specialist who excels with his takedowns, as one would expect of a Team Khabib trainee. He\u2019s the better finisher, able to throw with power and wrap up submissions on the canvas.<\/p>\n

An interesting undercurrent to this Welterweight war is that we have a Khamzat training partner facing off versus an Islam Makhachev training partner. Chechnya vs. Makhachkala!<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Nicholas Dalby deflated the hype of Izagakhmaev, outlasting and exhausting the ace wrestler in the clinch with knees and elbows. Given Vagaev\u2019s excellent wrestling, clinch-heavy style, and experience across five rounds, it feels quite likely that Vagaev will be able to wear his opponent down and eventually win the takedown battle.<\/p>\n

Hopefully, we get some high-level transitions first.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Vagaev via decision<\/p>\n

\u2018X-Factor\u2019 Picks for 2026: 41-20 (1)<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA<\/p>\n

Favorite underdog at UFC Abu Dhabi?<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Closes in 3 days \u2022 4 total votesView results<\/p>\n

Bogdan GuskovTyrell FortuneIsmael BonfimThomas PetersenOther (see comments)Rec 0CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReplyTo checkout the latest UFC Abu Dhabi fight card and rumors click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This weekend (Sat., July 25, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Etihad Arena in Abu…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":816838,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,179146,19458,19457,7990,1647],"class_list":["post-816837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews","tag-upcoming-ufc-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/816837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=816837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/816837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/816838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=816837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=816837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=816837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}