Please support our community writers by recommending their work. This helps them reach a larger audience. Take a moment to show your appreciation for their generosity. It means a lot.<\/p>\n
~~~<\/p>\n
ANTARCTICA\u00a0<\/p>\n
THWAITES UPDATE:<\/p>\n
The Battle of Lake Trasimene (217 BC):\u00a0During the Second Punic War, the Roman and Carthaginian armies fought a brutal battle here. A powerful earthquake struck the area while they were fighting. The combatants were so intensely focused on killing each other that neither side even noticed the earth shaking. (Google)<\/p>\n
This historic event could act as a metaphor for the inconvenient intrusion of outside external disruption at a time when many are intently focused on pressing matters at hand \u2014 ranging from the collapse of societal structure, all the way down to the daily struggles and diversions of individuals.\u00a0<\/p>\n
However in the case of Thwaites, this metaphor will break down. For while the combatants at Lake Trasimene did not feel the earth shake beneath them, the collapse of an ice shelf in a far off and largely forgotten icy realm, though barely witnessed, will be heard around the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The blow it will deliver to global stability, will file the teeth of our current fears.<\/p>\n
~~~<\/p>\n
It seems like ages ago that I last produced a polar diary. It\u2019s easy to get swept up into issues, both environmental and political that are closer to home, especially since during this period the \u2018ice gargantuan of the south\u2019 has appeared to be slumbering \u2014 not inactive, but \u2018down low\u2019\u00a0\u00a0\u2014 and the fits and starts of his restless sleep were insufficient to cause concern north of the \u2018circle\u2019, where pandemonium of one sort or another blots our attention.<\/p>\n
But now the leviathan has shaken his \u2018bed\u2019 and soon there will be all hell to pay.\u00a0<\/p>\n
~~~~~<\/p>\n
On Sunday, July 5 birches posted an update on Thwaites glacier, the first I\u2019d seen in a very long time \u2014 the link to which I\u2019ve provided toward the end of this \u201cAntarctica\u201d section.<\/p>\n
This \u2018shot across the bow\u2019 was intended to wake awareness of the momentous breakup of the Eastern ice shelf which supports the vanguard of the glacier where it\u00a0\u00a0meets the sea. For endless millennia loss has been stabilizedlized by this thick, near permanent layer of sea ice which abuts it. But that support structure is now breaking up and with it most of its effectiveness as a glacial restraint.<\/p>\n
birches\u2019 no-frills reporting succinctly delivered the facts, and to back them up,<\/p>\n
he provided three links that are well worth taking the time to explore.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the meantime, global warming has not let up, remaining hard at work, as worse news follows on the heels of his bad. Without time to finish the first course, the second has already arrived as we learn that the destruction of the glacier has advanced to the next stage \u2014 for the \u2018tongue\u2019, which is the advanced portion of the glacier itself, is displaying \u2018major rifting\u2019 portending the start of\u00a0its\u00a0break up.<\/p>\n
~~~\u00a0<\/p>\n
William Arney, who writes about Climate on Uncharted Blue, recently addressed\u00a0\u00a0Thwaites glacier with this further development.<\/p>\n
In a way, he has picked up from where Pakalolo left off, with the same gift to engage his readers, even while providing news dire enough to test the resolve of those willing to face it.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/forums.unchartedblue.com\/t\/quick-update-on-thwaites-glacier-the-floating-extension-of-the-glacier-stream-has-new-rifting\/578<\/a><\/p>\n William Arney\u00a0\u00a0\/ Thwaites update<\/p>\n Vying for brevity with birches \u2014 as both are shouting \u201cfire!\u201d as Gaia burns \u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n he cuts to the chase with this:<\/p>\n \u201cWe now know that rifting is occurring on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf and will lead to its rapid disintegration any day now.<\/p>\n New satellite imagery is showing\u00a0that the glacial stream itself now has major rifting as well.\u00a0(my bold)<\/p>\n From Baking at Arctic Sea Ice Forum.\u201d (W.A.)<\/p>\n ~~~<\/p>\n I reached out to Mr. Arney for help clarifying his use of the term \u201cglacial stream\u201d, which can be easily confused by laypeople (such as myself) with the flow of liquid melt water coming from the glacier itself.<\/p>\n Here is my understanding of what he explained to me:<\/p>\n The forefront of the glacier stream which meets the sea is also referred to as the \u2018sheet\u2019 or \u2018tongue\u2019. Rather than being broad like the ice \u2018shelf\u2019, it\u2019s relatively narrow by comparison (as is the glacier it emanates from). And so it takes the form of an ice river pushing from the coastline out into the surrounding frozen sea.<\/p>\n It extends from the land-based portion of the glacier proper, \u2018flowing\u2019 onto the ocean surface, while remaining firmly attached to the rest of the glacier. It should not be confused with the \u2018shelf\u2019, which consists of a solid sheet of floating sea ice formed more or less independently of the glacier.\u00a0<\/p>\n Mr. Arney explains the critical distinction between the surrounding shelf and the glacial sheet. \u201cThere\u2019s a difference: the ice sheet will raise sea levels. Not the shelf, as it\u2019s already floating\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n So what is referred to as the \u2018Thwaites Eastern Shelf\u2019 is not actually part of the glacier per se \u2014 but nevertheless bonded to it and essential for its survival.\u00a0<\/p>\n For a millennia, it has become \u2018attached\u2019 to the tongue of the glacier as that moves off land, acting as an extension and buffer, slowing the subsumption of the glacier into the ocean.\u00a0<\/p>\n But with global warming and rising ocean temperatures, this \u2018guardian\u2019 has been breaking up.\u00a0<\/p>\n Simultaneously, due to rising temperatures as well, the glacier proper is becoming less securely held \u2018fast\u2019 by the bedrock it rests on, as meltwater separates it and acts\u00a0\u00a0as a lubricant. Moreover, the same excessive heat thaws the ice sheet, slowly reducing the glacial mass which facilitates ongoing displacement, all of which speeds up glacial progression toward the sea\u00a0<\/p>\n \u2014 spelling eventual doom.\u00a0<\/p>\n As both the Eastern shelf and Thwaites become compromised, their stabilizing inter-relationship changes and the \u2018fasting\u2019 process breaks down due to the unrelenting force of glacial advancement. These dynamics put tremendous stress on the ice shelf, causing the rifting which ultimately leads to the loss of the shelf and then the glacier.<\/p>\n For a while, the sheared edge of the shelf continued to act to slow the glacier, but that too has succumbed to cracking, rifting and abrasion. At this point, the sea end of the glacier is exposed and beginning to rift in the form of huge crevasses, as the first step of its breaking up into icebergs.<\/p>\n Calving from the tongue combined with break up from the shelf forms a \u2018melange\u2019 of broken ice and slush, providing little resistance until it too is gone.<\/p>\n While it is only the land based ice that will raise sea levels, there is enough in Thwaites for two feet of increase worldwide.<\/p>\n ~~~<\/p>\n Mr. Arney generously provided me this quote from Christian Wild, which I insert in its entirety, as it pairs well with the above to provide an in-depth understanding of the physical forces at play:<\/p>\n \u201c4.3 Opening gash as a window for future ice cliff at present-day grounding zone?<\/p>\n Our observations of rifts and gashes along the grounding zone imply that the\u00a0Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf has largely detached from its tributary glacier. The widening of the gash supports the notion that the ice shelf no longer exerts substantial back-stress on Thwaites Glacier, consistent with the findings of Gudmundsson and others (2023). However, the presence of the ice shelf may still have an indirect influence on glacier dynamics. Observations and simple force balance calculations elsewhere, e.g. Jakobshavn Isbr\u00e6 (Amundson and others 2010),\u00a0indicate that the presence of an ice shelf or an ice melange can significantly affect the calving style by preventing the overturning and evacuation of large icebergs, which then affects the terminal extent of the grounding zone and hence glacier dynamics. It is therefore plausible that, even beyond the final breakup of the ice shelf, its past presence will continue to significantly influence the future of Thwaites Glacier.\u201d<\/p>\n Christian T. Wild et al. 19 September 2024<\/p>\n In his article, Mr. Arney continues:<\/p>\n \u201cDiscussion at the Sea Ice Blog has turned to whether the Thwaites Glacier grounding line has passed Ridge Mouginot. An undersea mountain that the glacier was lodged on. Source:\u00a0Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica\u00a0Exhibit C.\u201d (W.A.)<\/p>\n \u2026 and then in the comments section added this timely rejoinder:<\/p>\n \u201cOf course, we would have a better sense of what is occurring under Thwaites if Trump had not shuttered the Nathanial B. Palmer, the only US Antarctic research ship that was purposely built to handle the icy waters in front of the most dangerous glacier on the planet while providing climate data in very difficult waters to navigate. It is now docked in Louisiana.\u201d (W.A.)From the comments thread of the above article.<\/p>\n ~~~<\/p>\n A couple of days after birches originally posted about the glacier on DK, Mr. Arney covered the same ground for Uncharted Blue. Together, they provide helpful background on the events now taking place, which is why I provide both links here:<\/p>\n News About Thwaites (it\u2019s not good) \u2013 Daily Kos<\/a><\/p>\n birches 7\/5\/26<\/p>\n https:\/\/forums.unchartedblue.com\/t\/thwaites-eastern-ice-shelf-is-rotating-and-disintegrating-providing-no-buttressing-to-the-glacier\/548<\/a><\/p>\n William Arney UnchartedBlue 7\/7\/26\u00a0<\/p>\n I\u2019ll end the Antarctica portion of our diary with this link from the above article:<\/p>\n Thwaites: countdown to disintegration | Polar Journal<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n Though Thwaites itself can stand in as a metaphor for the collapse of our democracy, with corruption, neglect and indifference being major factors in both cases,\u00a0<\/p>\n the\u00a0difference is there\u2019s still something we can do about the latter to stop it, but with Thwaites our options are now limited to coping with outcomes.<\/p>\n This much anticipated global-scale catastrophe, should be on the short list of the most critical news of this pre-election cycle. Mother Nature does not take kindly to being ignored \u2014 and as it becomes more apparent daily, mankind is foolish to do so.<\/p>\n ~~~~~<\/p>\n POLAR REGIONS INFORMATION:<\/p>\n Polar diaries are a group effort, with\u00a0<\/p>\n birches contributing this on the subject of \u201cALBEDO\u201d:<\/p>\n \u201cSo what\u2019s an albedo and why should I know about it?<\/p>\n Ice and snow are bright.\u00a0\u00a0If you\u2019ve ever been out on the snowpack on a sunny spring day, you know how easy it is to get sunburned by the glare from the white stuff at your feet.\u00a0\u00a0How reflective an object is, is called its albedo.<\/p>\n Snow and ice have high albedos.\u00a0\u00a0Ice bounces 50-70% of solar radiation back out, and snow as much as 90%.\u00a0\u00a0Water, on the other hand, absorbs a lot of energy and reflects back much less; the ocean\u2019s albedo is about 10%.\u00a0<\/p>\n The polar caps and glaciers on earth used to reflect a lot of solar energy back out into space in the summers.\u00a0\u00a0But raising temperatures are melting snow and ice.\u00a0\u00a0When a glacier on land melts, the dirt and rock underneath is much less reflective than the absent snow and ice were.\u00a0\u00a0But when ice over open water melts, such as at the North Pole, it produces a huge local change in albedo.\u00a0\u00a0Suddenly an area that was reflecting a lot is now absorbing a lot, from 90% down to 10%.\u00a0\u00a0The newly open water absorbs heat, which heats up the ocean more, which causes more ice to melt, which absorbs more energy, etc.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n This is a positive feedback loop that is having very negative effects. \u00a0Is it a tipping point? \u00a0What happens if the ice caps go? \u00a0They\u2019ve been around throughout all of human evolution and the evolution of the vast majority of the ecosystems on the planet today. \u00a0The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (https:\/\/global-tipping-points.org\/<\/a>) states:\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe have high confidence that ice sheets \u2014 from Greenland to West Antarctica \u2014 have warming tipping points leading to irreversible collapse, locking in long-term multi-metre sea level rise and have been at risk since at least 1\u00b0C of global warming.\u201d (https:\/\/global-tipping-points.org\/earth-system-tipping-points\/<\/a>)\u201d<\/p>\n ~~~<\/p>\n REPORT FROM ALASKA:<\/p>\n \u2026and finally this brief update from coolspring regarding the unusual weather he\u2019s experiencing in Alaska and it\u2019s impacts:<\/p>\n \u201cOn the Kenai Peninsula, we are stuck in a series of low systems. The heat domes in the Canadian wildfire areas are blocking the low pressure movement. We are having cool rainy weather. The Salmon runs are loving the weather. Pretty much of the entire state is being affected this way. We are kind of trapped in this low wet system.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe Spruce bark beetle is the same, very destructive \u2014 and winds, frequently up to 20-30 mph, keep blowing over a lot of trees killed by them.\u201d<\/p>\n (Whereas these insects used to reproduce once a year, with warming weather, they now have time for three cycles.)<\/p>\n