{"id":819347,"date":"2026-07-23T20:00:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/819347\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T20:00:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:00:13","slug":"the-giants-wont-lose-100-games-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/819347\/","title":{"rendered":"The Giants won\u2019t lose 100+ games\u2026 right?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Some good responses in that comments thread of last week\u2019s post, and the bigger issue is that this miserable team has lost a lot of public trust along with all the goodwill of Buster Posey taking over Baseball Operations. But there are still the prospect huggers out there who see the Jackson Flora draft and other exciting developments in the farm as reason to focus on the positives and ignore the negatives, even if those negatives are some of the most damning in the franchise\u2019s history: losing triple digits for the second time ever and going five years without a winning season for the first time ever<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I guess no fandom is a monolith and I can\u2019t convince people who\u2019ve already ignored the bad baseball of the past decade (sorry, 2021 team!) that they should have serious doubts about the quality of the franchise. So, let\u2019s just sequalize my week-old post, given the ugly sweep in Kansas City. Just how likely are 100+ losses now?<\/p>\n

Through 102 games, the franchise\u2019s sole 100-loss team (1985) was 40-62. Zack & Buster\u2019s 2026 Giants are 42-60. With 60 games left, the Giants will need to go 21-39 to avoid 100 losses. The 1985 team went 22-38 over their final 60. So, yes, these Giants would have to play worse than the worst team in Giants history to match or exceed.<\/p>\n

Obviously, they can do it.<\/p>\n

The trade deadline seems likely to accelerate the losing. The bullpen and defense blowing games is annoying enough, but the coaching and decision trees managing the roster today will still be in place managing the post-deadline roster, and if you thought the bullpen, defense, and coaching is bad now, it\u2019ll only get worse when the starting pitching doesn\u2019t even give them a chance and the lineup features even less experience and Gold Glove-caliber defense.<\/p>\n

Previously, I\u2019d predicted 30 more wins, which would\u2019ve gotten them to 71-91. After a 1-5 start to the second part of the season, they\u2019d need to go 29-31 the rest of the way. I mean, who cares about my prediction, but the notion that they could go 29-31 is absurd. 21-39 even feels like a stretch, but let\u2019s run through this with the taste of this 1-5 road trip fresh in our mouths:<\/p>\n

vs. Angels (3 games) \u2014 a truly horrendous team, but the Giants are just 3-6 against them the past 3 seasons; and, this series will be before the trade deadline, meaning that the few good players on that roster likely to be traded will be showcased against the Giants. Prediction: 2-1 (although, the Giants just got owned by the Royals)
vs. the Brewers (3 games) \u2014 They\u2019re really, really good. Prediction: 1-2 (I have to believe the Giants can scratch out a win at home)
at San Diego (4 games) \u2014 the final series before the trade deadline and despite the Padres\u2019 struggles (they\u2019re 2-4 out of the break and were owned by the Royals, too!) it\u2019s likely that they won\u2019t be sellers. They, like the Giants, are just drawing too well. They have a new ownership group coming in, too. They\u2019re just 3 games back of a Wild Card spot as I write this. The Padres have lost just 1 season series to the Giants this decade (2021, natch). Prediction: split?
at Texas (3 games) \u2014 The Giants are bad on the road and haven\u2019t won 4 in a row all season. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Detroit (3 games) \u2014 The Tigers handled the Giants pretty easily last year in a sweep in Detroit and while it\u2019s true that the 2026 version has struggled a lot, it\u2019s still the case that they\u2019re much, much, much (much?) better than the Giants. Their lineup features three All-Stars: Dillon Dingler, Kevin McGonigle, and Riley Greene, and an enviable rotation with Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Casey Mize, and even Jack Flaherty, Keider Montero, and now Troy Melton. They are 21-31 on the road this season, though. Hmm\u2026 Prediction: 1-2
vs. Houston (3 games) \u2014 A tricky team. Are they buyers or sellers? Are they a \u201cfake\u201d .500 team? Well, I\u2019ll just let this decide: they\u2019re 13-17 in interleague this season while having a -45 run differential overall. Still, they\u2019re 11th in MLB in runs scored (4th in AL) and Giants pitching won\u2019t get any better this year. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Colorado (3 games) \u2014 Gosh, I hope this isn\u2019t a tough series. Prediction: 3-0 (is this where the first 4-game winning streak happens???)
at Cleveland (3 games) \u2014 Patrick Bailey revenge series? Who cares, the Guardians have great pitching and they are good for a second-half run. Prediction: 0-3
at Boston (3 games) \u2014 Their long win streak will be over by this point (probably), but even in their comedown, they\u2019ll probably still be able to get up to bash the Giants to death (metaphorically) if for no other reason than to stick it to Rafael Devers for some reason \u2014 could easily see him having a great series but with Giants pitching unable to capitalize. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Cincinnati (3 games) \u2014 This team seems to be out of it. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Arizona (4 games) \u2014 The Giants are 1-8 against the Diamondbacks this season. I would expect this series to put the team out of its misery. Prediction: 1-3
at Atlanta (1 game) \u2014 I cannot fathom the Giants sweep. Prediction: 0-1
at Pittsburgh (3 games) \u2014 Will the Pirates fade down the stretch? That\u2019s the big question. On the other hand, they\u2019re second in MLB in runs scored (543 to Washington\u2019s 567), so, I think they will get a big kick out of kicking the Giants\u2019 collective ass. Prediction: 1-2
at Mets (3 games) \u2014 This team will probably remake itself at the deadline and I wonder if they will be one of those teams that improve after retooling on the fly. Anyway, unless the Mets reacquire Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso, I\u2019m a bit more confident about the Giants facing the Mets. Then again, it\u2019s a road series, and the Mets will still have Juan Soto. Prediction 1-2
vs. St. Louis (3 games) \u2014 This series will be the final leg of a 3-city, 9-game road trip for the Cardinals where the first two series are at Dodger Stadium followed by Coors Field. So, I\u2019ll be a little bullish. Prediction: 2-1
vs. San Diego (3 games) \u2014 Let\u2019s just keep the good vibes going. Prediction: 2-1
at St. Louis (3 games) \u2014 Of course, the Cardinals will get their revenge. Prediction: 1-2
at Dodgers (3 games) \u2014 The Giants have played the Dodgers hard, but ending the season against them has, time and again, been disastrous. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Minnesota (3 games) \u2014 Will the Twins\u2019 surprising season continue? They\u2019ll have just come off a 4-game series against the Angels in Anaheim, but prior to that, they\u2019ll have run a pretty remarkable gauntlet: 6 against the White Sox, 6 against the Tigers, 3 against the Guardians, and 3 against the Yankees. That 18-game stretch might be enough to short circuit their season and set them on a course to merely play out the string against the Giants. That\u2019s the thinking I have to have in order to make this prediction: 2-1.
vs. Dodgers (3 games) \u2014 Since 2017, here is the Giants\u2019 record versus the Dodgers in September: 11-27. For the sake of the rivalry, lets say Prediction: 1-2.<\/p>\n

So\u2026 26 wins? 68-94? And this is maybe still optimistic?<\/p>\n

I just want to make it clear that I understand \u201cIt\u2019s Baseball!\u201d and anything can happen. Something could turn around this entire team and set them on a run that doesn\u2019t look so bad. But we\u2019ve been saying this for years and years. They haven\u2019t given any reasonable person any inkling that \u201cpositive regression\u201d or a long win streak is in the immediate future. This is a team in the midst of either an accidental reboot or a lost season that can\u2019t really be explained or fixed. Sort of like 2021\u2019s Wario \u2014 but this is the best case scenario going forward.<\/p>\n

Maybe the team does need us to write them off to spark a turnaround\u2026 that would only get them into the 70-win range. That\u2019s the thing. This is a bad Giants team with a ceiling of \u201cnot as bad as they looked for most of the season.\u201d Like, if they wind up with, say, 74 wins, in a couple of years somebody would write, \u201can 88-loss season that felt like 128.\u201d I don\u2019t know what this era of Giants Baseball will wind up being known as, but it\u2019ll be known for resetting franchise expectations.<\/p>\n

Sure, they\u2019ll end the year with the most wins in Baseball history still (around 11,670), but since 1972 (the season they traded Willie Mays), they\u2019re pretty close to .500 (4,356-4,265), and 49% of the seasons (27 of 55) have been non-winning ones (the two .500 seasons are in this count). There have been just 49 non-winning seasons out of 144 in Giants history (34%) and 55% of them have come in the last 54 years. So, statistically, this is the franchise\u2019s Losing Era. And despite the 3 championships, a 107-win season, the spectacle of Barry Bonds, and the beautiful ballpark, that is what it feels like.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Some good responses in that comments thread of last week\u2019s post, and the bigger issue is that this…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":819348,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,354400,85],"class_list":["post-819347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-san-francisco-giants-analysis","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/819347","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=819347"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/819347\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/819348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=819347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=819347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=819347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}