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How does The Run Home work?<\/p>\n
We\u2019re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it\u2019s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.<\/p>\n
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.<\/p>\n
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they\u2019d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it\u2019s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That\u2019s why almost all teams have a projection that\u2019s not a round number.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s all about probability, and it\u2019s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.<\/p>\n
It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it\u2019s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you\u2019re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you\u2019ll make these projections look silly, but that\u2019s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.<\/p>\n
At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we\u2019re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.<\/p>\n
“Better get involved in that!” | 01:02<\/p>\n
PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET<\/p>\n
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium<\/p>\n
First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBC at Adelaide Oval<\/p>\n
First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Melbourne vs St Kilda at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Geelong vs TBC at the MCG<\/p>\n
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG<\/p>\n
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.<\/p>\n
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER<\/p>\n
1. Fremantle (19.85 projected wins)<\/p>\n
2. Sydney Swans (17.15)<\/p>\n
3. Hawthorn (16.1)<\/p>\n
4. Brisbane Lions (15.65)<\/p>\n
5. Adelaide Crows (14.55)<\/p>\n
6. Geelong (14.15)<\/p>\n
7. Melbourne (14.15)<\/p>\n
8. Western Bulldogs (13.7)<\/p>\n
9. Collingwood (13.4)<\/p>\n
10. St Kilda (11.45)<\/p>\n
11. Carlton (10.55)<\/p>\n
12. GWS Giants (10.45)<\/p>\n
13. North Melbourne (9.05)<\/p>\n
14. Gold Coast Suns (8.4)<\/p>\n
15. Port Adelaide (7.85)<\/p>\n
16. West Coast Eagles (5.25)<\/p>\n
17. Richmond (2.7)<\/p>\n
18. Essendon (2.6)<\/p>\n
The Bombers are 18th because they\u2019re less likely to win another game, but have a solid percentage edge and would be favoured for 17th.<\/p>\n
See The Run Home with four rounds remaining.Source: FOX SPORTS<\/p>\n
Key Talking Points<\/p>\n
– The top nine teams will all play finals unless something crazy happens. You can take this however you like: if the AFL hadn\u2019t introduced the wildcard, we\u2019d have the exact same situation as last season, with nine teams fighting for eight spots and then a bunch of dead rubbers. We prefer this, even if the race for 10th is barely relevant to the premiership fight (other than their chances of ending 7th\u2019s season early in the wildcard round);<\/p>\n
– It\u2019d be silly to say the top four is locked with how tight the ladder still is, but it\u2019s overwhelmingly likely Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn and Brisbane will be playing in the qualifying finals. The Hawks and Lions hold what\u2019s effectively a two-win lead over the chasing pack, with pretty easy remaining draws, and the Swans\u2019 lead is basically three wins given their percentage;<\/p>\n
– The most realistic scenario where someone else gets into the top four involves Hawthorn or Brisbane losing twice (they play each other, and both play Collingwood), and that other team winning out. The most likely to do that is probably… Geelong, despite being ninth currently, due to their draw and strong percentage. Adelaide and Melbourne may look like likely candidates, but they both still have to play Fremantle.<\/p>\n
– But realistically, the top four should be set, and we\u2019re talking about the Crows, Demons, Bulldogs, Magpies and Cats all fighting for 5th and 6th. The Pies are in form but have the hardest run home, while we don\u2019t trust the Dogs;<\/p>\n
– St Kilda vs Carlton, which is (for some reason) Sunday night in a couple of weeks\u2019 time, might be the most important game left this year. (Lions vs Hawks would be the other contender given the winner should avoid a qualifying final vs Freo.) If the Saints win it they probably play finals. If the Blues win it, it\u2019s a proper race between those two and GWS;<\/p>\n
– 12 wins is still the magic number to aim at. The Saints have a shot (need to beat three of Swans\/Blues\/Tigers\/Suns), the Blues only have a shot if they beat the Saints (need to beat three of Lions\/Saints\/Dogs\/Dockers), and the Giants would need to win all four (Power\/Suns\/Eagles\/Crows). The Saints probably, but not definitely, win a tie on 11 wins.<\/p>\n
– North Melbourne and Gold Coast need to win all their games and pray.<\/p>\n
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can\u2019t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.<\/p>\n
Scott ready to ‘have it out’ with Lyon | 01:23<\/p>\n
1. FREMANTLE (17-2, 146%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a chance Fremantle could clinch the minor premiership next week – they just need to win, while Sydney loses to St Kilda. It would be the earliest any team has clinched top spot since Geelong in 2008. Heck, if Freo just wins period, they\u2019ll have it virtually clinched because of their percentage. The Demons, Crows and Blues will be hoping it\u2019s certain so they start resting players…<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 19.85 wins, finishing 1st<\/p>\n
Dockers dominance continues | 11:05<\/p>\n
2. SYDNEY SWANS (14-5, 130%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest<\/p>\n
You could fairly argue next week\u2019s clash with the Saints is marginally tougher than playing the Giants, given ladder positions and the need to get on a plane, but we\u2019re sticking with the line that Sydney just got through its toughest remaining test. The Derby win keeps them in second place, and combined with Adelaide and Melbourne\u2019s losses, the Swans look very safe inside the top four. The battle now is holding onto second, and they\u2019ve got a bit more breathing room than it appears, with Hawthorn and Brisbane playing each other in a couple of weeks\u2019 time. That\u2019s an extra loss for one of their closest chasers, and keep in mind they\u2019re basically two wins ahead of Brisbane (who will be favoured vs Hawthorn) due to percentage. We would be pretty surprised if the Swans missed the 2nd vs 3rd qualifying final, because they should win at least three of their last four games, though hosting rights are still uncertain.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 17.15 wins, finishing 2nd<\/p>\n
Cox relieved after Swans derby win | 09:33<\/p>\n
3. HAWTHORN (13-5-1, 124%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest<\/p>\n
A comfortable win over the Bombers was another step towards a top-four finish, though it would\u2019ve been nice if the Giants could\u2019ve knocked off Sydney. Now the Hawks\u2019 best hope of finishing second is probably St Kilda beating the Swans next week. It was still a good weekend overall because of all the chaos below the top four – Sam Mitchell\u2019s men are effectively two wins clear of fifth with four weeks left. As long as they take care of business against North Melbourne and West Coast, they should play in a qualifying final, and beating either Brisbane or Collingwood too would guarantee it. But the prize for winning all four remaining games, either a home qualifying final or a trip to Sydney (instead of Perth), is massive.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 16.1 wins, finishing 3rd<\/p>\n
Mitchell: “Jack joins a new echelon” | 07:43<\/p>\n
4. BRISBANE LIONS (13-6, 120.6%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest<\/p>\n
The Lions definitely feel like the second-best team in the comp right now, but actually finishing second seems unlikely, with the percentage gap between them and Sydney pretty sizeable. Unless the Swans lose twice (which would be odd given their draw), the Lions likely aren\u2019t catching them. At the same time, the Lions are unlikely to drop out of the top four unless they lose twice. So we\u2019re probably just talking about whether Brisbane can finish third, and likely face the Swans in their qualifying final, or if they\u2019ll finish fourth and cop Freo. That should be determined by the Round 22 clash with Hawthorn, although both the Hawks and Lions still have to play the in-form Magpies which could throw a spanner in the works.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 15.65 wins, finishing 4th<\/p>\n
Quaynor reacts to Adelaide boos | 02:46<\/p>\n
5. ADELAIDE CROWS (12-7, 113.7%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest<\/p>\n
A horror weekend for the Crows\u2019 top-four hopes, losing to Collingwood (keeping them in the top six race) while their ladder rivals were almost all victorious; at least Geelong beating Melbourne gives the Crows a buffer to the wildcard chasers (if only a small one). And that\u2019s without even mentioning them poorly handling the Isaac Quaynor situation for a second straight year. If everything goes right from here Adelaide can still get the double chance, but they should be more worried about who\u2019s behind them than who\u2019s ahead of them now. The Bulldogs and Magpies are scarily close, but the Cats are probably a bigger threat to catch up; they\u2019ve got the easiest draw of the trio and are probably the best team of the trio too (though Collingwood can disprove that next week). As long as the Crows win their next two, they should head into Round 24 controlling their own destiny, and if they win three of four they should still finish top six. Winning four of four, with some other results going their way, is probably required to make the top four.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 14.55 wins, finishing 5th<\/p>\n
‘The numbers were astronomical…’ | 06:50<\/p>\n
6. MELBOURNE (12-7, 96.8%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest<\/p>\n
Unfortunately the Demons couldn\u2019t pass their biggest test yet, and losing to Geelong means they\u2019re again fighting to avoid the wildcard. Their remaining draw is sneaky tough, with two interstate banana peel games, Freo\u2019s final MCG warm-up before the Grand Final, and a fellow top-six contender to finish it off. Combined with Hawthorn and Brisbane\u2019s pretty easy runs, it\u2019s very hard to see Melbourne making the top four now. But can they hold onto their top six spot? Even winning three of four might not keep them in there, because Geelong can catch them by winning four of four (and Adelaide can stay ahead by winning three of four). And what do you know – we have the Dees favoured in three of their remaining games, the Cats favoured to win four, and the Crows favoured to win three. So if results go as expected, Melbourne would be stuck in the wildcard. They\u2019d be favoured against whoever sneaks into 10th, at least.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 14.15 wins, finishing 7th (on percentage)<\/p>\n
“It won’t be a good watch back!” | 08:35<\/p>\n
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-7, 96.8%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest<\/p>\n
With 12 wins, they\u2019re finals-bound (unless two of the Saints, Blues, Giants and Roos go unbeaten… the latter definitely won\u2019t). And they remarkably sit just percentage out of fifth, though it\u2019s a hell of a lot of percentage. In fact the Bulldogs control their own fate – if they win all four remaining games they will make the top six, and maybe even the top four (though percentage probably still ruins that). A more realistic scenario would involve the Dogs losing next week in Perth, then taking care of business against the Kangaroos and Blues, at which point a top-six spot could be on the line against Melbourne. They would still need results to go their way, because the winner of next week\u2019s Collingwood-Geelong game would be favoured to finish ahead of them, and thus would need to drop another four points somewhere. If the Dogs win two more games or fewer, they\u2019re probably stuck in the 8th-9th wildcard final we\u2019ve been projecting them into for some time. Realistically they\u2019re the ninth-best team in the comp right now… just like last year. Thankfully for them, the AFL now lets 10 teams into the finals.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 13.7 wins, finishing 8th<\/p>\n
“Got to keep the energy high” | 12:15<\/p>\n
8. COLLINGWOOD (11-7-1, 107.6%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Geelong at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest<\/p>\n
We predicted last week the Magpies would win at least one of their four games left against the sides above them – and they got it done nice and early. Put simply, Collingwood can absolutely make the top six, but making the top four is much tougher. For the top six, they probably need three wins minimum including beating Geelong, because the Cats have a very easy last three weeks. If the Pies go 2-2 or worse, they should be in the wildcard. To make the top four, they\u2019d probably have to catch Brisbane, because the Hawks are two wins and percentage ahead – so the path would be something like Pies win all four games, Lions lose twice (likely to Hawks and Pies), Crows and Dees both lose once (likely both to Freo). It\u2019s definitely plausible but the Pies winning every game is the hardest part.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 13.4 wins, finishing 9th<\/p>\n
McRae defends Quaynor after crowd boos | 10:01<\/p>\n
9. GEELONG (11-8, 116.5%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest<\/p>\n
The Cats\u2019 best win since mid-May, combined with Adelaide\u2019s loss to Collingwood, has reopened the door to the top six. If they win all four of their remaining games (and they\u2019ll be favoured in all four) they will avoid the wildcard, unless Adelaide and Melbourne both go unbeaten too (unlikely since both still have to play Freo). There\u2019s even a path to the top four, probably needing Brisbane to lose twice (likely to Hawthorn and Collingwood). If the Cats lose to the Magpies, though, they\u2019d be two games out of the top six with three to play… which could only be recovered if everything goes right. Realistically, a loss to the Pies will send the Cats into the wildcard, in which case they\u2019d be a tough draw for somebody – but more importantly aren\u2019t gonna win the flag (because nobody\u2019s gonna win five finals in a row).<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 14.15 wins, finishing 6th (on percentage)<\/p>\n
“Actually don’t think he was dominant” | 10:00<\/p>\n
10. ST KILDA (9-10, 105.8%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Sydney at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest<\/p>\n
They\u2019re the warm favourites for 10th after fighting off a brave North Melbourne, even gaining some handy percentage, though that Sunday night clash with Carlton in two weeks\u2019 time is going to be absolutely enormous regardless. If the Saints win it, they should play finals, because of their pretty easy last two games giving them a clear path to 12 wins. Even if the Saints lose it, they can still get to 11 wins by beating the Tigers and Suns, and then they\u2019d definitely beat Carlton (who will find it very tough to hit 12 wins) on percentage. The numbers disagree but we\u2019d still have the Giants as the biggest threat to Ross Lyon\u2019s men playing finals; they\u2019re favoured in their next three (getting them to 11 wins), though the percentage gap between them and the Saints grew quite a lot this weekend.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 11.45 wins, finishing 10th<\/p>\n
Cripps: “Just enjoying our footy” | 03:39<\/p>\n
11. CARLTON (9-10, 92.4%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Brisbane at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest<\/p>\n
The light at the end of the tunnel got a little bit brighter this week, with a better-than-the-scoreboard-said win over Gold Coast. Combined with another loss for GWS, the Blues are absolutely in the fight for 10th if they can beat St Kilda in a couple of weeks\u2019 time. Their percentage is still a massive problem though – it\u2019s the equivalent of an extra loss. So if the Blues can\u2019t beat Brisbane or Fremantle, and get stuck on 11 wins, they need the Saints and Giants to get stuck on 10 wins. Realistically the Saints should get to 11, so the Blues are gonna have to beat them (and the Dogs) AND at least one of Brisbane or Fremantle to play finals.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 10.55 wins, finishing 11th<\/p>\n
Fraser: “A really exciting core group!” | 08:27<\/p>\n
12. GWS GIANTS (8-11, 98.3%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest<\/p>\n
A terrible two weeks for the Giants but they can still recover from here. At a minimum they need to win their next three games, and ideally build some percentage, to hit 11 wins before that tricky final-round trip to Adelaide. That would give them at least a chance of squeezing into 10th without relying on beating the Crows. If they can beat the Crows, and reach 12 wins, great! They will likely play finals if they go 4-0. But with the Saints now a full win ahead, they have no margin for error. (It\u2019d help massively if Carlton can beat St Kilda in two weeks\u2019 time.)<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 10.45 wins, finishing 12th<\/p>\n
“I was surprised and disappointed” | 10:03<\/p>\n
13. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-11, 89.6%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Sydney at the SCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest<\/p>\n
If they were any chance of recovering, they needed to beat the Saints. They\u2019re now realistically two wins outside the 10 (due to their poor percentage) and only play good teams from here. It\u2019s not happening without a footy miracle.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 9.05 wins, finishing 13th<\/p>\n
Tex boots Goal No. 700 | 01:42<\/p>\n
14. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-12, 94.8%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Melbourne at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: GWS at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Brisbane at the Gabba, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest<\/p>\n
They\u2019re only two wins outside the 10 with four games left but, realistically, the Suns are in mathematical chance territory now. 11 wins could be enough to make the wildcard, but 10 wins being enough would be absurd. Unless an absolutely crazy turnaround is about to begin, they are just playing spoilers from here.<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 8.4 wins, finishing 14th<\/p>\n
Hardwick: “We just couldn’t stop them” | 07:03<\/p>\n
OUT OF CONTENTION<\/p>\n
15. PORT ADELAIDE (6-13, 95.6%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 7.85 wins, finishing 15th<\/p>\n
16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-15, 70.1%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 5.25 wins, finishing 16th<\/p>\n
17. ESSENDON (2-17, 65.4%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: Sydney at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 2.6 wins, finishing 18th<\/p>\n
18. RICHMOND (2-17, 60.9%)<\/p>\n
Remaining games<\/p>\n
Round 21: West Coast at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm<\/p>\n
Round 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm<\/p>\n
Round 23: St Kilda at the MCG, details TBC<\/p>\n
Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC<\/p>\n
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest<\/p>\n
Fox Footy\u2019s projection: 2.7 wins, finishing 17th<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Collingwood might be footy\u2019s hottest team, but escaping the wildcard will be much harder than it looks… and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":824675,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-824674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824674","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=824674"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824674\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/824675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=824674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=824674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=824674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}