Nationals get: LHP Connelly Early<\/p>\n
Red Sox get: INF Curtis Mead<\/p>\n
Chad Jennings<\/p>\n
Nationals: B
Red Sox: A-<\/p>\n
A little more than a week before the trade deadline, we have our first thread-the-needle swap between two third-place teams.<\/p>\n
The Washington Nationals, desperate for pitching help, have acquired 24-year-old starter Connelly Early from the Boston Red Sox, who are addressing their long-standing need for a right-handed bat by acquiring 25-year-old third baseman Curtis Mead.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not exactly prospect-for-prospect, but it\u2019s close. Early has five more years of team control, Mead has four more years, and each team is betting on upside well beyond these next two months. Trade grades are rarely straightforward, and this one is a little more complicated because the players lack lengthy track records. The judgment depends on how much you believe in the arrival of Mead\u2019s bat.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s an argument for giving the Nationals the better grade because even if Early doesn\u2019t pan out, getting him at all assumes they\u2019ve done a wonderful job selling high on Mead, who was previously designated for assignment, acquired in a much smaller trade in March, and has previously failed to hit for the Rays or White Sox. But he was excellent for four months with the Nats, and the team swapped him for five-plus years of Early, who gives the Nationals much-needed stability at the back of their rotation. He\u2019s probably the safer bet, even if he\u2019s no more than a No. 4 starter.<\/p>\n
Giving the Red Sox an A- assumes Mead has legitimately unlocked his long-held potential. Considered a top-100 prospect during his time with the Rays, Mead\u2019s Baseball Savant page now has a lot more red than Early\u2019s, and that kind of right-handed bat \u2014 which the Red Sox desperately needed \u2014 could be in limited supply this trade deadline. He\u2019s not a good defender, but he can passably play several positions, and his bat could be enough to DH, especially against lefties.<\/p>\n
Early has shown flashes of No. 2-3 starter stuff, but his underlying metrics look more like a 4-5. That\u2019s still a good get for the Nats, but Mead is a versatile, high-upside big swing for the Red Sox, who are betting his breakout season is more than a flash in the pan.<\/p>\n
Tim Britton<\/p>\n
Nationals: A
Red Sox: C-<\/p>\n
Look, the Red Sox aren\u2019t the first AL East team to trade a talented left-handed starter for Curtis Mead, and boy, they hope this one works out better than it did for the Rays. Obviously, Early is unlikely to blossom like Cristopher S\u00e1nchez, and Mead is in a different place in his career than when he was traded from Philadelphia. But this is an awful lot of trust to place in a few months of performance, especially when the roster fit is imperfect.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s the positive for Boston: In the here and now, Mead fits what the Red Sox need offensively, and his swing looks customized for Fenway Park. It\u2019s reasonable to think he\u2019s made real changes here that can be sustained beyond the breakout this season. And if any team can afford to trade away a good young pitcher already in the majors, it\u2019s this one.<\/p>\n
Now the negatives: The glove isn\u2019t good pretty much anywhere you put it, and it\u2019s especially bad at third base, where the Red Sox could probably use it most. It\u2019s nice to get four-plus years of team control in a deal; it\u2019s less so when a lot of that time might be at DH. One reason you target guys who best fit your ballpark is you can usually get them at a discount. This isn\u2019t that. And I\u2019m left feeling that, if the Red Sox were dangling Early around the league, they could have gotten a better fit or more established piece for their overall starting nine.<\/p>\n
For Washington, it\u2019s both cashing in a lottery ticket from the offseason and a bet on their revitalized hitting infrastructure being able to produce another Mead soon. Any team east of Seattle would be helped by adding Early to the rotation; maybe no team is helped more than Washington. If he\u2019s a cost-controlled back-half starter, well that\u2019s something the Nats could really use. If he\u2019s anything more than that, it\u2019s a slam dunk for Washington.<\/p>\n